Well That Makes Sense – Page 171 – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/11/26

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September 11, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/11/2026** Bond markets logged a paradoxical rally today as inflation data sparked a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. The August core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month versus a 0.2% forecast, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to near 5% before recovering slightly to 4.947%. UMBS securities strengthened across all coupons, with the 30-year 5.5 coupon climbing 30 basis points intraday to 97.75, signaling bond investors' appetite for inflation-fighting policy. Mortgage rates have crested above 7% for the first time since May 2025, hitting 7.07% on the 30-year fixed as rising oil prices and Treasury yields compressed lending margins. Lenders are responding by tightening credit availability on jumbo and cash-out refinance products, with the MBA's Mortgage Credit Availability Index falling 1% in August to 107.3. For originators, the tightened credit box means fewer program options and higher qualification standards for borrowers sitting in the jumbo zone. Rocket Mortgage and CrossCountry Mortgage jumped ahead of the FHFA's official announcement by raising their conforming loan limits to $845,000, effective immediately and representing a $12,250 increase from 2026's $832,750 ceiling. This proactive move keeps more high-balance borrowers in the conventional channel rather than forcing them into jumbo underwriting and pricing. The implied 1.47% increase for 2027 suggests a slower pace of home-price appreciation compared to prior years. Home insurance premiums hit a record high at $209 monthly in Q2 2026, now consuming 9.6% of the average mortgage payment, according to ICE data tracking over 650,000 properties. Regional disparities remain stark, with New Orleans seeing insurance represent 24.3% of total monthly housing costs while San Jose holds at just 4.3%. The 8.7% annual increase represents an 80% surge since 2020, though the quarterly pace of increases appears to be moderating. Prepayment speeds for UMBS securities have slowed sharply, with Fannie Mae 30-year speeds declining 12% month-over-month to 7.1 CPR in August—the slowest pace since April 2025. With only 3.4% of conventional borrowers currently refinance-incentivized at today's higher rates, originators face muted purchase and refinance volume heading into fall. Servicer composition continues to matter, with Rocket/Quicken, Huntington, and Fifth Third showing faster speeds while Rushmore and Marlin remain slower. Oil prices surged overnight and Treasury Secretary Bessent's first Treasury buyback operation fell short of expectations, keeping downward pressure on bonds despite the Fed's hawkish inflation stance. The 10-year yield remains elevated near 5%, and a breach above that psychological level could strain equities and heighten concerns over the sustainability of public finances. Traders now price two Fed rate hikes by January 2027, betting heavily that higher rates will finally cool inflation and stabilize the mortgage market. **Locking vs Floating** August inflation data has shifted the lock-versus-float equation decisively toward locking. With the Fed highly likely to hike rates next week and mortgage rates already above 7%, borrowers face a narrowing window to lock in protection. The bond market's aggressive repricing reflects inflation pressures that the Fed must address, meaning further rate hikes remain probable. Floating strategies carry substantial risk given the hawkish pivot. **Today's Events** August Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m Headline: 0.4% vs. 0.4% forecast August CPI m/m Core: 0.3% vs. 0.2% forecast, 0.2% prior August CPI y/y Headline: 3.4% vs. 3.4% forecast August CPI y/y Core: 2.4% vs. 2.4% forecast, 2.5% prior September Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (later today) August Treasury Budget (later today) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 95.06 | 0.27 | | 5.5 | 97.68 | 0.23 | | 6.0 | 100.11 | 0.20 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 95.44 | 0.08 | | 5.5 | 98.15 | 0.06 | | 6.0 | 100.56 | 0.10 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.588 | 99.124 | 0.009 | | 3 yr | 4.674 | 99.172 | -0.009 | | 5 yr | 4.742 | 98.382 | -0.015 | | 7 yr | 4.832 | 98.047 | -0.024 | | 10 yr | 4.933 | 97.594 | -0.033 | | 30 yr | 5.331 | 96.939 | -0.035 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/10/26

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September 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/10/2026** Bond markets entered freefall Thursday as oil prices surged past $100 and producer inflation data signaled persistent price pressures, sending MBS down nearly a full point and 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since October 2023 at 4.957 percent. The damage came in three waves: overnight crude rally, PPI in-line readings that suggested a 0.1 percent bump to core PCE, and late-day illiquid selling following the 30-year auction. Negative reprices are now spreading among lenders as mortgage originators face mounting pressure on locked loans, with MBS down over seven-eighths of a point by afternoon close. Federal Reserve rate-hike odds surged to 70 percent for next week's policy decision, fully priced in by October, as markets read the inflation data as a final warning before Friday's consumer price index report. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded buyback program took a hit when the government purchased only $5.19 billion of the $6 billion maximum, signaling selectivity that pushed yields even higher and fueling chatter about activist debt management. The confluence of energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and lackluster Treasury demand has created a perfect storm for mortgage lenders looking for any reprieve heading into the weekend. UMBS securities across all coupons posted substantial losses, with the critical 5.5 coupon down 0.99 points to 97.45 and the 6.0 coupon off 0.86 to 99.91. GNMA securities showed slightly better resilience, with the 5.5 coupon down 0.69 to 98.09 and the 6.0 coupon off just 0.46 to 100.46, reflecting the traditional relative strength of government-backed pools during high volatility. The broader Treasury curve steepened modestly, with the 2-year up 14.5 basis points and the 10-year climbing 12 basis points, while the 30-year added 7.2 basis points to 5.366 percent. A highly defensive strategy is mandatory when bonds enter snowball-selling mode, as continued weakness introduces only fleeting, unpredictable bounces that may vanish without warning. Lenders were already conservative in early rate sheets after the morning's sharp sell-off, making traditional repricing triggers less reliable as individual lender lock timing diverges. The key support level to watch remains 4.93 percent on the 10-year, with harder floors positioned at 4.80, 4.71, 4.62, 4.54, and 4.42 percent providing relief targets if selling exhaustion eventually sets in. Friday brings the consumer price index report, the final major data point before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, and market participants are pinning hopes on a cooler-than-expected reading to halt the bond rally carnage. Energy-driven inflation is inherently difficult for monetary policy to address, yet the Fed faces mounting pressure to signal resolve through a potential rate increase even if such moves cannot directly ease oil-driven price pressures. Jobless claims printed at 206,000 Thursday morning against a 205,000 forecast, showing labor market resilience that adds hawkish tilt to policy expectations. **Locking vs Floating** Mortgage professionals face a no-win environment in which heavy bond selling introduces only occasional and fleeting bounces that cannot be reliably predicted or timed with confidence. Locking becomes prudent despite deep losses because floating against continued weakness offers no margin of safety. Any individual rate improvement remains a trading event, not a fundamental turning point, so client protection through locking outweighs the slim chance of catching another bounce. **Today's Events** Core PPI m/m (Aug): 0.2% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous Core PPI y/y (Aug): 4.6% vs 4.6% forecast, 4.2% previous Jobless Claims (Sep/05): 206K vs 205K forecast, 206K previous PPI m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast, 0% previous PPI y/y (Aug): 5.4% vs 5.3% forecast, 4.7% previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 94.8 | -1.06 | | 5.5 | 97.45 | -0.99 | | 6.0 | 99.91 | -0.86 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 95.37 | -0.82 | | 5.5 | 98.09 | -0.69 | | 6.0 | 100.46 | -0.46 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.579 | 99.141 | 0.145 | | 3 yr | 4.683 | 99.148 | 0.153 | | 5 yr | 4.758 | 98.315 | 0.136 | | 7 yr | 4.856 | 97.908 | 0.129 | | 10 yr | 4.965 | 97.344 | 0.12 | | 30 yr | 5.366 | 96.43 | 0.072 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/10/26

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September 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/10/2026** Oil prices and inflation data are hammering the bond market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.88 percent as geopolitical tensions intensify Middle East energy concerns. August's Producer Price Index matched expectations at 0.4 percent month-over-month, but year-over-year gains climbed to 5.4 percent, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady longer than anticipated. The overnight crude surge pushed Brent crude to $104 per barrel, with analysts citing protracted US-Iran tensions and reduced Saudi production as primary drivers. Mortgage originators face headwinds as UMBS 5.5 coupon securities fell 0.58 points and GNMA equivalents dropped 0.41 points in morning trading. Consumer Confidence and existing home sales data later today will test whether demand remains resilient amid affordability pressures climbing to decade highs. Treasury buyback announcements this week—tripling the 10-year to 20-year note purchases to $6 billion—initially disappointed markets, suggesting mechanistic support alone cannot offset broader valuation concerns. The $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction yesterday drew strong demand with a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio, yet prices remain near lows not seen since late 2023, signaling genuine uncertainty about debt sustainability. MBS basis cheapened across virtually every coupon against both 5-year and 10-year Treasuries, indicating yesterday's weakness extended well beyond simple rate-driven selloffs. Traders describe the market as "oversold" technically, positioning for a potential tactical rally if this week's auctions continue absorbing supply well. The broader takeaway: buybacks may limit volatility at the margin but cannot reverse growing investor sensitivity to US government debt trajectories. Jobless claims came in at 206,000 versus a 205,000 forecast, holding steady week-over-week and confirming labor markets remain surprisingly resilient despite broader economic uncertainty. Core PPI year-over-year held flat at 4.6 percent—matching forecasts—yet the persistence of elevated inflation readings keeps Fed pause expectations uncertain through October's meeting. Employment concentration in restaurants, bars, and healthcare suggests hiring breadth remains narrow, with wage pressure building primarily in service sectors facing staffing constraints. The Mortgage Bankers Association has already revised downward both 2026 volume and unit production estimates while projecting 2027 originations to run flat versus this year. This employment-inflation tension defines the lock-versus-float calculus for borrowers until clearer Fed messaging emerges. Mortgage Bankers Association officials report heightened regulatory uncertainty as FHFA Director William Pulte signals "serious consideration" of eliminating the costly tri-merge credit reporting requirement, potentially moving toward bi-merge or single-file approaches. The proposed shift aims to reduce consumer costs and increase competition among credit bureaus, which have raised prices annually for over a decade. Private mortgage insurers including MGIC and Radian report preparedness for VantageScore 4.0 credit score transitions, though lender integration complexity varies widely based on internal technology capabilities. **Locking vs Floating** Bond markets are showing first signs they might stabilize with 10-year yields around 4.92 percent, yet defending that level remains uncertain given overnight oil spikes and persistent inflation data. A defensive strategy makes the most sense until negative momentum clearly shifts or inflation data releases signal meaningful improvement. Thursday and Friday inflation reports present double-edged opportunities—stronger-than-expected CPI could stabilize rates, but disappointing readings could accelerate selling. MBS prices help track intraday risk, while 10-year yield floors and ceilings signal broader bond market momentum shifts. Borrowers remain caught between floating exposure to further rate jumps and locking at elevated levels; most originators recommend locking when tactical bounces emerge rather than chasing elusive bottoms. **Today's Events** 8:30 AM – Jobless Claims (Sep/05): 206K vs 205K forecast 8:30 AM – Core PPI m/m (Aug): 0.2% vs 0.3% forecast 8:30 AM – Core PPI y/y (Aug): 4.6% vs 4.6% forecast 8:30 AM – PPI m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast 8:30 AM – PPI y/y (Aug): 5.4% vs 5.3% forecast 10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales (Aug): 3.98M vs 4.06M forecast 1:00 PM – 30-year Treasury Bond Reopening **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **UMBS 30-Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 95.22 | -0.64 | | 5.5 | 97.84 | -0.58 | | 6.0 | 100.23 | -0.53 | **GNMA 30-Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 95.74 | -0.45 | | 5.5 | 98.38 | -0.41 | | 6.0 | 100.55 | -0.38 | **US Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---|---|---| | 2-Year | 4.514% | 99.264 | +0.087 | | 3-Year | 4.613% | 99.34 | +0.092 | | 5-Year | 4.704% | 98.549 | +0.091 | | 7-Year | 4.809% | 98.182 | +0.090 | | 10-Year | 4.92% | 97.692 | +0.080 | | 30-Year | 5.349% | 96.672 | +0.063 | Subscribe free to What's up in Mortgage Today at WellThatMakesSense.com for daily market briefings tailored to origination professionals.

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“We don’t see things as they are; we see them as we are.” — Anaïs Nin Perception is everything. Pretty much everything we experience can be seen as both a positive and negative. [...]

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