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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/10/26

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September 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/10/2026** Oil prices and inflation data are hammering the bond market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.88 percent as geopolitical tensions intensify Middle East energy concerns. August's Producer Price Index matched expectations at 0.4 percent month-over-month, but year-over-year gains climbed to 5.4 percent, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady longer than anticipated. The overnight crude surge pushed Brent crude to $104 per barrel, with analysts citing protracted US-Iran tensions and reduced Saudi production as primary drivers. Mortgage originators face headwinds as UMBS 5.5 coupon securities fell 0.58 points and GNMA equivalents dropped 0.41 points in morning trading. Consumer Confidence and existing home sales data later today will test whether demand remains resilient amid affordability pressures climbing to decade highs. Treasury buyback announcements this week—tripling the 10-year to 20-year note purchases to $6 billion—initially disappointed markets, suggesting mechanistic support alone cannot offset broader valuation concerns. The $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction yesterday drew strong demand with a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio, yet prices remain near lows not seen since late 2023, signaling genuine uncertainty about debt sustainability. MBS basis cheapened across virtually every coupon against both 5-year and 10-year Treasuries, indicating yesterday's weakness extended well beyond simple rate-driven selloffs. Traders describe the market as "oversold" technically, positioning for a potential tactical rally if this week's auctions continue absorbing supply well. The broader takeaway: buybacks may limit volatility at the margin but cannot reverse growing investor sensitivity to US government debt trajectories. Jobless claims came in at 206,000 versus a 205,000 forecast, holding steady week-over-week and confirming labor markets remain surprisingly resilient despite broader economic uncertainty. Core PPI year-over-year held flat at 4.6 percent—matching forecasts—yet the persistence of elevated inflation readings keeps Fed pause expectations uncertain through October's meeting. Employment concentration in restaurants, bars, and healthcare suggests hiring breadth remains narrow, with wage pressure building primarily in service sectors facing staffing constraints. The Mortgage Bankers Association has already revised downward both 2026 volume and unit production estimates while projecting 2027 originations to run flat versus this year. This employment-inflation tension defines the lock-versus-float calculus for borrowers until clearer Fed messaging emerges. Mortgage Bankers Association officials report heightened regulatory uncertainty as FHFA Director William Pulte signals "serious consideration" of eliminating the costly tri-merge credit reporting requirement, potentially moving toward bi-merge or single-file approaches. The proposed shift aims to reduce consumer costs and increase competition among credit bureaus, which have raised prices annually for over a decade. Private mortgage insurers including MGIC and Radian report preparedness for VantageScore 4.0 credit score transitions, though lender integration complexity varies widely based on internal technology capabilities. **Locking vs Floating** Bond markets are showing first signs they might stabilize with 10-year yields around 4.92 percent, yet defending that level remains uncertain given overnight oil spikes and persistent inflation data. A defensive strategy makes the most sense until negative momentum clearly shifts or inflation data releases signal meaningful improvement. Thursday and Friday inflation reports present double-edged opportunities—stronger-than-expected CPI could stabilize rates, but disappointing readings could accelerate selling. MBS prices help track intraday risk, while 10-year yield floors and ceilings signal broader bond market momentum shifts. Borrowers remain caught between floating exposure to further rate jumps and locking at elevated levels; most originators recommend locking when tactical bounces emerge rather than chasing elusive bottoms. **Today's Events** 8:30 AM – Jobless Claims (Sep/05): 206K vs 205K forecast 8:30 AM – Core PPI m/m (Aug): 0.2% vs 0.3% forecast 8:30 AM – Core PPI y/y (Aug): 4.6% vs 4.6% forecast 8:30 AM – PPI m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast 8:30 AM – PPI y/y (Aug): 5.4% vs 5.3% forecast 10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales (Aug): 3.98M vs 4.06M forecast 1:00 PM – 30-year Treasury Bond Reopening **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **UMBS 30-Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 95.22 | -0.64 | | 5.5 | 97.84 | -0.58 | | 6.0 | 100.23 | -0.53 | **GNMA 30-Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---|---|---| | 5.0 | 95.74 | -0.45 | | 5.5 | 98.38 | -0.41 | | 6.0 | 100.55 | -0.38 | **US Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---|---|---| | 2-Year | 4.514% | 99.264 | +0.087 | | 3-Year | 4.613% | 99.34 | +0.092 | | 5-Year | 4.704% | 98.549 | +0.091 | | 7-Year | 4.809% | 98.182 | +0.090 | | 10-Year | 4.92% | 97.692 | +0.080 | | 30-Year | 5.349% | 96.672 | +0.063 | Subscribe free to What's up in Mortgage Today at WellThatMakesSense.com for daily market briefings tailored to origination professionals.

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/09/26

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September 9, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/09/2026** Oil surged past $100 per barrel overnight as Middle East tensions intensified, sending bond yields climbing and MBS prices retreating across all coupons. The 10-year Treasury now sits at 4.81 percent, up 1.4 basis points intraday, while UMBS 30-year coupons declined between 0.08 and 0.1 points. Global equity markets sold off sharply with the Stoxx 600 down 1.5 percent, S&P 500 futures down 0.4 percent, and crypto holding some gains. Inflation expectations are now front and center as traders price in a 65 percent probability of a Fed rate hike next week, with energy costs at their highest level since July. Mortgage applications fell 2.7 percent last week, with refinancing collapsing 6 percent as the 30-year fixed climbed to 6.85 percent, its highest level since June 2025. Specified payups have eroded significantly during this recent selloff as MBS valuations cheapen and volatility rises. Investors are no longer willing to pay historical premiums for favorable prepayment characteristics when liquidity becomes scarce and the value of that protection becomes harder to monetize. For mortgage originators, this means the economics of originating and retaining specified pools can deteriorate quickly, requiring more conservative payup assumptions in pricing and hedging decisions. Lenders should avoid assuming today's payups will persist and should focus on which loan characteristics command durable value rather than relying on historical premiums. This shift marks a meaningful change in how the market values prepayment protection. Rocket Mortgage has moved ahead of the FHFA conforming loan limit announcement by updating its high-balance products, with estimates suggesting the new 2027 baseline could land around $853,400 versus the current $832,750 limit. Lenders can now price and originate to this higher limit before official agency announcements, but they face a critical timing gap before those loans can be delivered under new-year limits. This gap requires somebody to warehouse the production and carry associated hedge, funding, and basis risk until the limits become broadly deliverable. The competitive advantage goes to lenders willing to move fast, but the economics depend on how aggressively they compete for that incremental volume. Early adopters gain positioning advantage and access to borrowers currently sitting just above the conforming ceiling. The Treasury Department continues efforts to restrain yields through buyback operations on 10-year and 20-year securities, with an announcement expected on the size of Thursday's operation. Europe experienced a steeper selloff than the United States, with German 10-year yields up 5 basis points and British yields up 6 basis points. The Fed has not provided forward guidance in recent weeks, leaving market participants heavily focused on the ECB's Thursday decision and ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments. Money markets are also pricing four rate hikes by the end of 2027 from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank. This week's high-consequence data on CPI and PPI will be critical in determining the Fed's next move. **Locking vs Floating** Another day brings fresh reminders of the volatility tied to the ongoing Iran war, with military escalation continuing to drive oil prices higher. High-consequence data on tap this week including CPI and PPI readings make a defensive strategy the most prudent approach until there is a clear shift in negative momentum. MBS prices provide helpful intraday risk signals, while 10-year yield ceilings and floors help track the bigger picture momentum in the bond market. Originators should remain cautious with rate lock commitments until inflation concerns show signs of easing. **Today's Events** - Treasury announces size of Thursday's 10-year and 20-year buyback operation - CPI and PPI data due this week (high-consequence for Fed rate decision) - Fed decision expected next week with 65% probability of rate hike - ECB decision and President Lagarde comments on Thursday **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.13 | -0.1 | | 5.5 | 98.68 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 100.88 | -0.09 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.45 | -0.03 | | 5.5 | 98.98 | -0.13 | | 6.0 | 101.09 | -0.07 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/08/26

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September 8, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/08/2026** Oil prices surged past $98 a barrel on Saudi Arabian production disruptions, reigniting inflation fears that could push the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes in September. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.80 percent as markets priced in stagflation risk—a toxic combination of rising energy costs and persistent wage pressures. MBS prices remained flat to slightly higher despite broader bond weakness, as investors questioned whether mortgage rates will decline meaningfully before year-end. The three-month Treasury auction calendar kicks off today with a $58 billion three-year note sale, followed by 10-year and 30-year offerings that test demand at elevated yields. This week's inflation data (PPI Thursday, CPI Friday) will likely determine whether the Fed can hold its September 18 rate decision steady or capitulates to higher-for-longer policy expectations. NEXA Lending elevated Geri Farr to Chief Executive Officer while outgoing CEO Mike Kortas transitioned to Executive Partner, marking a structural shift designed to separate operations from strategic vision. The personnel moves at NEXA underscore a broader industry pattern: mortgage originators are tightening expense structures as consumer-direct channels contract amid persistent rate headwinds. Dark Matter bolstered its product leadership by hiring a former national lender's SVP for strategy and a veteran technology implementation executive, betting that automation and AI investment will drive competitive advantage. Meanwhile, Fair Isaac's stock collapsed 17 percent Friday after FHFA Director Bill Pulte mandated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept VantageScore for mortgage underwriting effective immediately, threatening FICO's two-decade pricing dominance. The directive—framed as completing the 2018 Credit Score Competition Act—shifts the competitive landscape as VantageScore costs roughly $1 per pull versus FICO's $10-plus price point. Stronger-than-expected August employment (162k payrolls versus 55k forecast) reinforced expectations that the Fed will prioritize inflation control over labor-market softness. While wage growth decelerated to 3.1 percent year-over-year, the strongest in over a year, underlying labor-force participation hit 61.6 percent, complicating the disinflationary narrative mortgage investors need. The dual pressure from commodity-driven inflation and sticky wage growth leaves mortgage investors facing a prolonged period of elevated term premiums. Fannie Mae 15-year and 20-year MBS retained relative appeal on Thursday afternoon as shorter-duration securities offer partial insulation from further yield bear-steepening. Gen Z borrowers now account for one in five purchase locks despite lower credit scores and smaller down payments, forcing lenders to invest in digital-first guided experiences that scale across origination and servicing platforms. FHFA's VantageScore mandate represents a structural shift for secondary markets and correspondent lending. Lenders selling community reinvestment act (CRA)-eligible loans have historically relied on narrow buyer relationships, but technology platforms like GATHER are expanding execution by connecting originators with broader institutional buyer networks. The credit-score directive combined with broader market access tools could reduce correspondent seller reliance on legacy pricing relationships and unlock competitive tension that benefits both originators and institutional buyers. Treasury borrowing remains aggressive—the government faces $40 trillion in outstanding debt and a bear-flattening yield curve that tests investor demand at longer tenors. Short-duration Agency MBS with durations under four years may represent the least-painful parking spot for mortgage investor capital if rates remain locked higher through year-end. The conference season kicks into high gear this week with the Western States CREF Conference, PNMLC Annual Meeting, and Loan Vision Innovation Conference all running through mid-September. Industry discussions center on balance-sheet risk management, servicer expectations for lender capital adequacy, and how firms are positioning for the next mortgage-market phase. Larger originators are hosting multiple podcasts and market panels to address originator concerns about rate stability, credit risks, and staffing in a volume-constrained environment. Technology vendors report strong interest in AI-powered loan processing and document automation, with some platforms claiming 8x processor output improvements and 80 percent defect reductions. The talent market remains active despite layoff rumors: OptiFunder earned its fourth consecutive Inc. 5000 recognition for warehouse-funding automation, while Click n' Close expanded its down-payment-assistance product suite and hired a two-decade secondary market veteran as director of whole-loan trading. Mortgage investors should expect Treasury yields to oscillate tightly around 4.80 percent until Friday's CPI print provides directional clarity. Iran-oil supply disruptions and China's tariff retaliation could sustain commodity-based inflation fears through the Fed's September meeting, keeping long-end yields anchored near recent highs. MBS price momentum remains fragile given negative carry dynamics and the unwind of speculative long positioning in shorter-dated securities. Refinance activity remains dormant across most vintages except 2025 cohorts showing steeper early-aging curves, indicating borrowers retain some willingness to refi if rates collapse decisively. The mortgage industry's focus on cost control, technology automation, and secondary market optionality reflects a professional consensus that rate relief may not arrive until 2027, forcing originators to compete on execution rather than rate environment tailwinds. **Locking vs Floating** Economic data arriving next week—particularly mid-week CPI and PPI prints—carries decisive weight for mortgage-rate direction. The combination of ongoing geopolitical risk from Iran tensions and absence of clear disinflationary momentum argues for a defensive rate-lock posture until inflation proves definitively contained. MBS prices provide intraday risk management, while 10-year Treasury yield ceilings and floors track broader bond-market momentum that ultimately drives mortgage pricing. **Today's Events** August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (released, down 1.1 to 98.7) $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction (11:30 AM ET) July Consumer Credit (later today) $39 billion 10-year Treasury note auction (Wednesday) August Existing Home Sales (Thursday) Producer Price Index inflation data (Thursday) Consumer Price Index inflation data (Friday) Preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.46 | 0.1 | | 5.5 | 98.92 | 0.05 | | 6.0 | 101.06 | 0.01 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.78 | 0.09 | | 5.5 | 99.03 | 0 | | 6.0 | 101.19 | 0.05 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.371 | 99.535 | 0.007 | | 3 yr | 4.445 | 99.458 | -0.002 | | 5 yr | 4.543 | 99.256 | -0.003 | | 7 yr | 4.651 | 99.108 | -0.005 | | 10 yr | 4.774 | 98.825 | -0.014 | | 30 yr | 5.23 | 98.425 | -0.015 |

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