WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 09/15/2025**

The mortgage-backed securities market showed mixed signals today as traders digest ongoing economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.04%, down three basis points from the previous session, providing some relief for mortgage pricing. This decline in Treasury yields typically translates to improved conditions for mortgage rates, though the correlation isn’t always perfect. Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-6% range, with today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage sitting at 6.32% according to Bankrate data. The UMBS market remains sensitive to inflation expectations and Fed policy signals, with traders closely watching for any hints about future monetary policy direction. Recent economic data has created uncertainty about the pace of future rate adjustments, keeping volatility elevated in the bond markets.

The mortgage origination business faces continued challenges as higher rates suppress refinance activity and constrain purchase volume. Lenders are adapting to a reduced market size by focusing on operational efficiency and maintaining competitive pricing where possible. The shift toward purchase-heavy origination continues, with refinance activity remaining at historically low levels.

Real estate market activity showed some regional improvements in September, with the Northeast seeing an 11-point increase in buyer activity indices and the Northwest gaining 6 points. These improvements suggest that while higher rates continue to impact affordability, motivated buyers are still active in certain markets. Housing inventory levels remain a key factor influencing market dynamics across different regions.

Market participants remain focused on upcoming economic releases and Fed communications for direction on bond pricing and mortgage rates. The interplay between Treasury yields and MBS spreads continues to drive daily rate movements, making it essential for industry professionals to monitor both markets closely.

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