WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/15/2026
Jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, well below the 215,000 forecast and marking the lowest level since November. This surprisingly strong employment data pushed bonds lower this morning as traders worry about persistent labor market tightness. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.16%, while UMBS securities dropped across all coupons.
Manufacturing data also surprised to the upside, with both the NY Fed and Philadelphia Fed indices beating expectations significantly. The Philly Fed index surged to 12.6 versus the -2.0 forecast, suggesting renewed strength in regional manufacturing. These strong regional readings add to concerns that economic resilience could keep the Fed from cutting rates aggressively.
The Trump Administration is planning an executive order on housing affordability that would prevent institutions from owning single-family homes. The proposal would also allow homebuyers to tap 401(k) and 529 accounts for down payments. However, mortgage industry experts suggest implementing negative loan-level pricing adjustments for first-time buyers might be more effective than these retirement account provisions.
Existing home sales rose 5.1% in December to 4.35 million annualized, though inventory remains tight at just 3.5 months of supply. The median home price held steady at $405,400 as the spring selling season approaches around Super Bowl Sunday. A significant shift is occurring in the mortgage market as there are now more loans with 6% rates than 3% rates, signaling the end of the rate lock-in effect that has constrained housing activity.
Bank of America reported stronger-than-expected earnings with mortgage originations up 31% to $4.2 billion. However, bank stocks have struggled despite solid results as investors engage in “buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news” behavior. The KBW Bank Index fell nearly 2% over the past two days despite generally positive earnings reports from major lenders.
Locking vs Floating
The absence of rate improvement despite earlier bond market gains suggests asymmetric risk for mortgage originators. Lenders may have a cushion to absorb incidental weakness, but they’re not eager to drop rates below current levels without a more significant rally. With jobless claims coming in much stronger than expected and manufacturing data showing resilience, floating carries increased risk over the next few days.
Today’s Events
– Continued Claims (Jan 3): 1,884K vs 1,890K forecast, 1,914K previous
– Jobless Claims (Jan 10): 198K vs 215K forecast, 208K previous
– NY Fed Manufacturing (Jan): 7.70 vs 1.0 forecast, -3.90 previous
– Philly Fed Business Index (Jan): 12.6 vs -2.0 forecast, -10.2 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.22 | -0.18 |
| 5.5 | 101.39 | -0.13 |
| 6.0 | 102.31 | -0.14 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.96 | -0.19 |
| 5.5 | 100.97 | -0.17 |
| 6.0 | 101.93 | -0.06 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.55 | 99.905 | 0.034 |
| 3 yr | 3.601 | 99.715 | 0.039 |
| 5 yr | 3.75 | 99.436 | 0.042 |
| 7 yr | 3.941 | 98.843 | 0.034 |
| 10 yr | 4.152 | 98.769 | 0.02 |
| 30 yr | 4.783 | 97.492 | 0.001 |
