Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/17/26

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March 17, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/17/2026 Oil prices are driving today's bond market rally as crude hovers near $100 per barrel amid ongoing Iran tensions. Treasury yields dropped across the curve with the 10-year falling to 4.21%, down from yesterday's close of 4.22%. MBS prices gained strength overnight, with UMBS 5.0 coupon up 9 basis points after initially opening weaker. The correlation between oil and bonds remains remarkably straightforward today. Geopolitical risk tied to Iran continues as the dominant macro driver, overshadowing economic data entirely. While some tankers are navigating the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. is working with allies to safeguard shipping lanes, investors remain defensive. This uncertainty is providing unexpected support for mortgage-backed securities. Economic data painted a weaker picture this morning with NY Fed manufacturing at -0.2 versus the 3.2 forecast and 7.1 prior reading. Manufacturing sentiment weakened sharply while services business activity in the NY Fed district improved slightly to -22.6 from -25.7 last month. These softer numbers aren't moving markets much as traders focus squarely on energy prices and inflation concerns. Housing builder confidence improved modestly according to the NAHB Housing Market Index, but affordability remains severely constrained with over a third of builders cutting prices. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC meeting today, though expectations are for a non-event. Policymakers are expected to maintain their cautious wait-and-see stance as they assess whether the oil-driven inflation scare could morph into a broader growth concern. Chair Powell's statement and press conference tomorrow afternoon will be closely watched. The NAR's pending home sales index for February is expected at -0.5% month-over-month, but won't significantly impact rate movements. Mortgage-backed securities are navigating choppy waters with 30-year Ginnie Mae pools underperforming in this volatile environment. Shorter-duration Fannie Mae 15 and 20-year securities are holding up better as investors favor capital preservation strategies. The 2s/10s Treasury spread remains near recent extremes at around 55 basis points while volatility has surged since the Middle East escalation. Housing affordability has reached historically challenging levels as high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and rising living costs continue pricing out average buyers. The Trump administration is reportedly pushing measures to expand mortgage credit through community banks and reduce regulatory barriers to housing development. These efforts aim to boost supply and credit availability, though follow-through remains uncertain. For mortgage originators, the immediate concern is managing client expectations in this environment where geopolitical events can shift pricing rapidly within a single day. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains significantly elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty with Iran. March has been entirely bearish for rates so far, making a defensive posture prudent for deals closing within the next 30 days. It will take more than two positive days to verify that the bearish trend has truly leveled off, as false hope emerged briefly on March 6th and 9th before reversing. Monitor oil prices closely as they continue driving bond market direction. Today's Events - NY Fed Manufacturing: -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous - NAR Pending Home Sales Index (February): Expected -0.5% month-over-month - Treasury auction: $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds - FOMC meeting begins (statement and Powell press conference tomorrow) Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.37 | 0.12 | | 5.0 | 99.37 | 0.09 | | 5.5 | 100.98 | 0.1 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.35 | 0.03 | | 5.0 | 99.58 | -0.19 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | -0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.672 | 99.672 | -0.006 | | 3 yr | 3.674 | 99.511 | -0.008 | | 5 yr | 3.786 | 99.84 | -0.014 | | 7 yr | 3.983 | 100.105 | -0.01 | | 10 yr | 4.207 | 98.323 | -0.013 | | 30 yr | 4.856 | 96.366 | -0.011 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily. Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/16/26

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March 16, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/16/2026 Markets are showing modest improvement this morning after last week's brutal selloff that pushed mortgage rates to a six-month high. UMBS prices gained a quarter point overnight while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.223%, down from Friday's close of 4.29%. This morning's stability comes despite weaker-than-expected Empire manufacturing data, which missed forecasts badly at -0.2 versus an expected 3.2. The three-day rate surge that ended Friday was painful for originators watching deals fall apart. Mortgage rates rocketed from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% by Friday, marking the fastest three-day climb since early April 2025 and hitting levels not seen since last September. The culprit remains geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Iran war, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel as concerns mount over the Strait of Hormuz potentially closing. President Trump asked China for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquid natural gas supply. The diplomatic outreach makes sense given China's heavy dependence on energy flowing through that channel. If successful, reduced oil price pressure could ease the inflation fears currently weighing on bonds. This week's FOMC meeting looms large, with policymakers facing an uncomfortable stagflation scenario as growth slows while inflation remains sticky. The Fed is universally expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, preserving flexibility amid massive uncertainty around energy prices. Markets that once priced in multiple rate cuts this year are now questioning whether we'll see even one, especially with core PCE inflation ticking up to 3.1% year-over-year while Q4 GDP was revised sharply down to just 0.7%. New executive orders targeting housing supply and mortgage access could reshape the origination landscape if implemented as outlined. The first order directs HUD and FHFA to cut regulatory barriers to home construction by streamlining permitting, scaling back green energy mandates, and easing restrictions on manufactured housing. The second order takes aim squarely at mortgage access by directing the CFPB to expand the qualified mortgage definition, potentially replace TRID timing rules, and create broader safe harbor for portfolio loans while modernizing appraisals through AI and automated valuation models. Industry reaction to the executive orders has been cautiously optimistic, with MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit welcoming reduced compliance costs but emphasizing that benefits should extend to all lenders, not just banks. These changes could significantly impact how you structure and process loans in coming months. Meanwhile, Redfin research shows private listings and "coming soon" properties could boost available inventory by 12%, offering a potential lifeline in markets still constrained by tight supply. Locking vs Floating Geopolitical volatility remains the dominant risk factor, with March proving bearish for rates across the board. Given the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and Wednesday's Fed decision, defensive posturing makes sense until the bearish streak clearly levels off. If you have borrowers closing within 30 days, locking now protects against further geopolitical shocks that could push rates higher. Today's Events NY Fed Manufacturing (March): -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (February): Released later today NAHB Housing Market Index (March): Released later today Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.43 | | 5.0 | 99.20 | 0.31 | | 5.5 | 100.85 | 0.21 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.24 | | 5.0 | 99.62 | 0.27 | | 5.5 | 100.79 | 0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.682 | 99.653 | -0.048 | | 3 yr | 3.692 | 99.460 | -0.056 | | 5 yr | 3.806 | 99.745 | -0.048 | | 7 yr | 4.003 | 99.982 | -0.058 | | 10 yr | 4.223 | 98.198 | -0.059 | | 30 yr | 4.858 | 96.343 | -0.044 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this analysis in your inbox daily. Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/26

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March 13, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/2026 Mortgage rates spiked to 2026 highs this week as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel, creating inflationary headwinds that overwhelmed otherwise encouraging economic data. The 30-year fixed rate climbed 11 basis points to 6.11%, while the 15-year jumped 7 basis points to 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. While rates remain 54 basis points lower than a year ago, the recent surge underscores how energy market volatility can override traditional fundamental drivers. This morning's economic data dump revealed a dramatically weaker Q4 GDP picture than initially reported, with growth slashed in half from 1.4% to just 0.7% annually. The downward revision affected all GDP components, with the government shutdown cited as a key drag on economic activity. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model badly missed the mark by predicting 5% growth, raising questions about forecasting accuracy amid volatile policy conditions. January's PCE inflation data came in exactly as expected, with core PCE rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, doing little to change the inflation narrative. Personal income rose 0.4% while disposable income jumped 0.9%, though spending increased only 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain cautious. The bigger market mover was core retail sales, which flatlined at 0% versus expectations of 0.5%, while durable goods orders also disappointed with zero growth against forecasts of 1.2%. The Senate overwhelmingly passed landmark housing legislation yesterday in a rare display of bipartisan cooperation, with Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren co-sponsoring the bill. The legislation eases financing for manufactured housing by eliminating the permanent foundation requirement, which should improve affordability for entry-level buyers. The bill also directs the CFPB to report on loan officer compensation policies and point-and-fee caps, potentially signaling the first steps toward relaxing rules that make small-dollar loans unprofitable for many lenders. However, the bill's ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes drew criticism from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which warned it could limit build-for-rent supply and ultimately worsen affordability. The MBA's concerns highlight the unintended consequences of policies targeting institutional buyers, as these investors have increasingly funded new construction inventory. Meanwhile, new FHA loss-mitigation rules are driving severe delinquencies sharply higher, jumping from 5.1% at year-end to 6.1% by February as borrowers are now limited to one home-retention option every 24 months. Bond markets showed modest improvement this morning despite the data deluge, with UMBS prices up an eighth of a point and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 1.34 basis points to 4.252%. The muted reaction reflects how geopolitical risk has become the dominant pricing factor, overshadowing economic fundamentals. Oil prices pulled back slightly from overnight highs, providing some relief, but crude remains elevated as markets assess potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel strike on Iran. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains substantially elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with March proving consistently bearish for rates thus far. Core retail sales and GDP both missed expectations while PCE matched forecasts, creating modest downward pressure on yields this morning. However, the entire month has trended against borrowers, making defensive positioning prudent until the bearish momentum clearly levels off. Pipeline protection should be the priority in this environment where reprices can happen in very short order. Next week's FOMC meeting looms large, with markets focused less on the policy decision itself and more on Chair Powell's tone and word choice regarding oil price impacts on inflation guidance. Given current conditions, locking transactions closing within 30 days appears advisable. Today's Events Core Retail Sales (Jan): 0% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous Core PCE month-over-month (Jan): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous Core PCE year-over-year (Jan): 3.1% vs 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous Durable Goods (Jan): 0% vs 1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous GDP Q4: 0.7% vs 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous GDP Final Sales Q4: 0.4% vs 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous PCE year-over-year (Jan): 2.8% vs 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous PCE prices month-over-month (Jan): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.13 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 100.8 | 0.14 | | 5.0 | 99.48 | -0.05 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.704 | 99.61 | -0.032 | | 3 yr | 3.719 | 99.384 | -0.037 | | 5 yr | 3.834 | 99.621 | -0.031 | | 7 yr | 4.024 | 99.852 | -0.03 | | 10 yr | 4.24 | 98.057 | -0.024 | | 30 yr | 4.873 | 96.119 | -0.01 | Market Data

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