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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/07/26

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April 7, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/07/2026 Bond markets find themselves in a holiday-adjacent holding pattern as traders exercise caution ahead of potential geopolitical developments. March's significant rate spike appears to have cooled in early April, though volatility risks persist with ongoing tensions in Iran casting uncertainty over defensive momentum. The 10-year Treasury yield moved slightly higher to 4.343%, up 0.008 basis points from the previous close, signaling continued market hesitancy. Mortgage-backed securities showed mixed performance with UMBS 30-year coupons displaying minimal movement across the board. This sideways action reflects the market's wait-and-see approach as participants assess whether recent stabilization can maintain momentum. ISM services data delivered a mixed bag that reinforced the current cautious tone in fixed-income markets. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0, missing the 55.0 forecast and declining from the previous 56.1 reading, suggesting some cooling in the services sector. However, the Services New Orders component jumped to 60.6 from 58.6, indicating underlying demand remains robust. Most concerning for bond traders was the Services Prices index, which surged to 70.7 from 63.0, well above expectations and signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Employment within services contracted sharply to 45.2 from 51.8, adding another layer of complexity to the economic narrative. UMBS pricing remained relatively stable with the 5.0 coupon trading at 98.81, down just 0.03, while the 5.5 coupon held at 100.64 with a modest 0.04 decline. The 6.0 coupon showed slight strength, gaining 0.02 to reach 102.14, suggesting some selective buying interest in higher coupons. This stability in mortgage securities reflects the current range-bound environment as originators navigate uncertain rate directions. The narrow price movements indicate that while there's no significant selling pressure, buyers remain cautious about committing to larger positions. GNMA securities mirrored the mixed UMBS performance with similarly modest intraday changes across coupons. The 5.0 GNMA coupon declined 0.06 to 99.22, showing slightly more weakness than its UMBS counterpart, while the 5.5 coupon gained 0.02 to reach 100.89. The 6.0 GNMA coupon pulled back 0.03 to 101.82, maintaining its typical discount to UMBS pricing. These government-backed securities continue to trade with their characteristic tight spreads to Treasuries, providing originators with reliable execution venues. The stability in GNMA pricing supports continued securitization activity for conforming loan production. Treasury yields across the curve showed the market's indecision with shorter maturities declining while longer dates edged higher. The 2-year note yield dropped 1.3 basis points to 3.843%, while the 5-year fell 0.7 basis points to 3.98%, suggesting some flight-to-quality buying in the front end. Conversely, the 30-year bond yield climbed 1.3 basis points to 4.903%, reflecting concerns about long-term inflation expectations following the hot ISM prices data. This yield curve steepening indicates that while near-term Fed policy expectations remain anchored, longer-term inflation concerns persist. Mortgage originators face a challenging environment where rate lock decisions require careful timing given the elevated volatility risks stemming from geopolitical tensions. The recent cooling of March's rate spike provides some relief, but the potential for renewed defensive momentum shifts keeps the outlook uncertain. With ISM services prices surging well above forecasts, any signs of broader inflationary pressure could quickly reverse recent bond market gains. Current pricing levels suggest that while there's no immediate pressure to rush lock decisions, the window for favorable conditions remains narrow and dependent on external factors beyond traditional economic data. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions favor a cautious approach to rate lock timing as volatility risks remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran. While March's significant rate spike has cooled in early April, the potential for defensive momentum shifts keeps the outlook uncertain for bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield ceiling and floor levels continue to help track broader bond market momentum, though current sideways action suggests waiting for clearer directional signals. MBS pricing provides helpful intraday risk management, but originators should focus on the bigger picture Treasury movements for longer-term positioning decisions. Today's Events ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March): 54.0 vs 55.0 forecast, 56.1 previous ISM Services Employment (March): 45.2 vs no forecast, 51.8 previous ISM Services New Orders (March): 60.6 vs no forecast, 58.6 previous ISM Services Prices (March): 70.7 vs no forecast, 63.0 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.81 | -0.03 | | 5.5 | 100.64 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.14 | 0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.22 | -0.06 | | 5.5 | 100.89 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.82 | -0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.843 | 100.062 | -0.013 | | 3 yr | 3.869 | 98.963 | -0.011 | | 5 yr | 3.98 | 99.53 | -0.007 | | 7 yr | 4.158 | 100.553 | -0.009 | | 10 yr | 4.336 | 98.305 | 0.001 | | 30 yr | 4.903 | 97.603 | 0.013 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/06/26

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April 6, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/06/2026 UWM CEO Mat Ishbia has been ordered to sit for a deposition as part of the ongoing "All-In" litigation, marking an escalation that has legal experts taking notice. Depositions at the CEO level are rare, typically reserved for cases where courts believe there's direct involvement or unique knowledge at the top level. UWM's immediate response was an emergency motion to block the deposition, arguing other executives could testify instead. The "All-In" policy remains one of the most consequential wholesale channel moves in recent years, continuing to shape broker relationships and business flow patterns. This litigation keeps that policy—and its enforcement strategy—squarely in the spotlight as it potentially reaches the highest executive levels. FICO pricing pressure is hitting originators hard, with tri-merge credit costs now hovering around $540 per file according to Community Home Lenders of America criticism. Credit pulls that were once routine line items are now cutting significantly into margins and forcing earlier, harder pipeline decisions. VantageScore is pushing back with studies showing that better pre-screening can reduce wasted files and improve pull-through rates, especially for first-time buyers. The real question for loan officers isn't about scoring models—it's whether lenders can move fast enough to implement cost-saving alternatives. In today's margin environment, anything that helps avoid dead-end files isn't optional anymore. The mortgage AI boom is creating serious compliance gaps and liability risks that industry educators are flagging as immediate threats. Issues include inaccurate disclosures, data misuse, and bias concerns that could expose originators to regulatory action. Meanwhile, Harvard research shows a neural network can predict 71% of mutual fund trading decisions, highlighting AI's growing sophistication in financial markets. But Dalbar's 2025 report found the average equity investor still earned 8.5% less than the S&P 500 due to human psychology factors like loss aversion and panic selling. The contrast between AI's analytical precision and human emotional decision-making continues to widen across financial services. Bond markets showed modest gains today despite low holiday-adjacent volume, with MBS up 6 ticks and the 10-year Treasury down 1 basis point to 4.334%. ISM services data came in mixed, with employment dropping to 45.2 versus 51.8 previously, but prices paid jumping to 70.7 from 63.0. Traders remain focused on Iran conflict developments, particularly after Trump's ultimatum deadline approaches Tuesday night for reopening shipping channels. The Strait of Hormuz situation continues to create volatility risks, though some ships have successfully made recent transits. Market participants are waiting to see if defensive momentum might shift once geopolitical tensions ease. Rocket Mortgage edged ahead of UWM in total loan count for 2025, originating 429,332 loans (6.33% market share) compared to UWM's 422,120 loans (6.25% share). However, UWM dominated in dollar volume with $164.32 billion versus Rocket's $116.16 billion, reflecting UWM's focus on purchase loans with higher balances. Rocket concentrated more heavily on cash-out refinances and second liens, which typically have lower loan amounts. The data may not fully reflect Rocket's Mr. Cooper acquisition impact, which closed October 1, 2025, due to HMDA reporting lags. Overall originations rose to 6.8 million from 6.25 million in 2024, with denial rates improving to 22.5% from 24.3%. Opendoor is acquiring Doma's closing and escrow operations while partnering with Fannie Mae on the Title Acceptance Program, which eliminates lender's title insurance requirements for about 80% of eligible refinance loans. The program uses algorithmic risk assessments instead of manual title searches, resulting in faster closings and roughly $1,100 in savings per refinance transaction. Doma's technology has powered Fannie's program since 2024, with the new structure having Doma handle title risk decisions while Opendoor manages closing and escrow. This move directly targets the closing process, which Opendoor has identified as the most challenging part of simplifying home transactions. Locking vs Floating March's rate spike has cooled in early April, but volatility risks persist as long as the Iran conflict continues. Current market conditions suggest waiting for potential shifts in defensive momentum that could coincide with the end of hostilities. While recent days have shown improvement, it's still too early to make confident lock/float decisions based on this trend alone. Today's Events ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar): 54.0 vs 55 forecast, 56.1 previous ISM Services Employment (Mar): 45.2 vs 51.8 previous ISM Services New Orders (Mar): 60.6 vs 58.6 previous ISM Services Prices (Mar): 70.7 vs 63.0 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.84 | 0.18 | | 5.5 | 100.68 | 0.15 | | 6.0 | 102.12 | 0.13 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.28 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.87 | 0.13 | | 6.0 | 101.85 | 0.07 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.855 | 100.038 | 0.03 | | 3 yr | 3.88 | 98.934 | 0.022 | | 5 yr | 3.986 | 99.501 | 0.012 | | 7 yr | 4.167 | 100.502 | -0.031 | | 10 yr | 4.34 | 98.27 | 0.024 | | 30 yr | 4.881 | 97.954 | -0.036 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/03/26

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April 3, 2026

# WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/03/2026 Bonds are showing renewed strength this morning as oil price hopes fuel a recovery following earlier weakness, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing 1.2 basis points to 4.317% as markets digest mixed employment signals. The combination of higher Challenger layoffs in March hitting 60,620 versus the previous 48,307 and lower-than-expected jobless claims at 202K suggests a labor market in transition. UMBS coupons are trading slightly weaker across the curve with 5.0% coupons at 98.81, down 10 basis points, while GNMA securities are showing similar softness. The market is positioning defensively ahead of Friday's crucial jobs report and the holiday-shortened Good Friday trading session. Employment data this morning painted a nuanced picture that's keeping bond traders cautious about making aggressive moves in either direction. Challenger layoffs surged to their highest level since last summer, indicating potential corporate belt-tightening ahead, while initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 202K from 212K forecasted. Continued claims ticked slightly higher to 1,841K, barely above the 1,840K estimate but up from the prior 1,819K reading. These mixed signals are creating uncertainty about labor market direction just as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy moves. Oil price futures for distant delivery months are expressing cautious optimism for Middle East de-escalation, providing some support for risk assets including mortgage-backed securities. However, the bond market's recent volatility has mortgage professionals maintaining defensive positioning strategies until clearer directional signals emerge. The 10-year yield's movement above 4.30% represents a key technical level that many market participants are watching closely. Geopolitical tensions continue to create an environment where sudden reversals remain possible. Mortgage originators are facing a challenging pricing environment as the gap between mortgage rates and underlying Treasury yields remains elevated due to credit spread concerns. The current UMBS 5.5% coupon at 100.63 reflects continued investor caution about mortgage credit quality despite strong home price appreciation in most markets. Production margins remain compressed as lenders compete for a smaller pool of qualified borrowers in the current rate environment. Secondary market liquidity has improved modestly but remains below historical norms, contributing to wider bid-ask spreads. The upcoming jobs report on Friday carries outsized importance for mortgage markets, with economists expecting continued moderation in hiring pace and wage growth. Any significant deviation from expectations could trigger volatile moves in both Treasury and mortgage-backed security markets during the abbreviated trading session. Market participants are particularly focused on labor force participation rates and average hourly earnings data for clues about inflationary pressures. The holiday weekend adds an element of position-squaring that could amplify moves in either direction. Looking ahead to next week, the combination of fresh economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments will likely keep volatility elevated across fixed-income markets. Mortgage professionals should prepare for continued rate volatility as markets digest the employment picture and assess Federal Reserve policy implications. The technical setup in both Treasury and mortgage markets suggests that a break above or below current trading ranges could lead to accelerated moves. Careful attention to intraday price action and news flow will be essential for optimal timing decisions. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions favor a defensive approach with most clients maintaining protective strategies until bond markets demonstrate more consistent strength. Additional volatility is expected into Friday's jobs report combined with the holiday-shortened trading session for Good Friday. While some risk-takers may sense opportunity in oil price hopes for de-escalation, the average client should wait for more convincing bond market improvement before abandoning defensive positioning. Today's Events - Challenger layoffs (March): 60.62K vs 48.307K previous - Continued Claims (March 21): 1,841K vs 1,840K forecast, 1,819K previous - Jobless Claims (March 28): 202K vs 212K forecast, 210K previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intraday Change | | 5.0 | 98.81 | -0.1 | | 5.5 | 100.63 | -0.07 | | 6.0 | 102.04 | -0.07 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intraday Change | | 5.0 | 99.19 | -0.08 | | 5.5 | 100.79 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 101.77 | -0.06 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intraday Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.82 | 99.39 | 0.017 | | 3 yr | 3.843 | 99.036 | 0.014 | | 5 yr | 3.963 | 99.041 | 0.018 | | 7 yr | 4.141 | 99.149 | 0.014 | | 10 yr | 4.319 | 97.433 | 0.011 | | 30 yr | 4.893 | 95.803 | 0.015 | Subscribe free for daily mortgage market insights at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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