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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/25/26

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June 25, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/25/2026** Bonds rallied moderately today after the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index arrived exactly as expected, calming inflation concerns that have dominated recent trading. The 10-year Treasury fell 1.2 basis points to 4.375 percent while MBS prices climbed 6 ticks following the benign PCE print, which showed core inflation at 3.4 percent annually and monthly at 0.3 percent. These aligned forecasts suggest the Federal Reserve's inflation trajectory remains steady despite persistent pressure from energy-related costs and broader price pressures. Mortgage originators found modest tailwinds this morning as lender pricing had not fully caught up to yesterday's bond rally, creating a small cushion for rate locks. The market remains cautious, however, waiting for a second close below the key 4.42 percent technical level in 10-year yields before declaring a decisive trend shift. Economic data released Thursday morning delivered a mixed picture of labor demand and consumer resilience that will shape mortgage strategy through the remainder of the quarter. Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 from 226,000 in the prior week, beating expectations of 225,000 and signaling tighter labor markets heading into summer. Personal income surged 0.7 percent month-over-month, outpacing the 0.4 percent forecast, while personal spending accelerated 0.7 percent against expectations of just 0.3 percent. Durable goods orders declined 4.5 percent as expected, suggesting manufacturing caution, though the broader economy expanded at an annualized 2.1 percent in Q1, beating prior estimates of 1.6 percent. Origination teams should note that strong consumer spending paired with moderate inflation keeps rate expectations anchored near current levels rather than forcing sudden repricing. New home sales tumbled 7.3 percent month-over-month in May to an annualized rate of 580,000 units, falling well below expectations of 627,000 and marking the second-lowest sales pace in the past twelve months. Affordability constraints linked to persistent mortgage rates drove the decline, with the West region experiencing the most acute pullback as higher-priced markets face buyer resistance. Even the South—traditionally the nation's most resilient homebuilding region—showed meaningful weakness, suggesting pricing sensitivity is spreading beyond coastal markets. Year-over-year sales fell 6.8 percent, underscoring the cumulative headwind from elevated rates and limited inventory. For mortgage lenders, this data reinforces that rate-conscious borrowers are delaying or postponing purchases, likely transferring demand to refinance and home equity products. The Federal Reserve's latest stress test validated the resilience of the banking system, with all 32 large banks maintaining capital above regulatory minimums even under an extreme recession scenario featuring 10 percent unemployment, 30 percent home price declines, and 39 percent commercial real estate losses. Banks would absorb over $708 billion in losses across credit cards and commercial real estate yet retain aggregate capital ratios declining only 1.6 percentage points. This structural strength means correspondent lenders and major portfolio managers remain well-positioned to fund mortgage originations without external capital constraints. The findings provide some assurance that mortgage funding will remain available through any economic stress, though competitive conditions may tighten. Originators can reference this stability when reassuring borrowers and investors about market liquidity. A Treasury auction of $70 billion in 5-year notes received lukewarm reception Wednesday, with investors demanding slightly higher yields than the market expected, forcing dealers to absorb an outsized share. Although the sale "tailed," the broader Treasury market barely reacted, suggesting dealers viewed the outcome as disappointing but not alarming for the long-term outlook. Shorter-dated Treasuries remain near 2025 highs due to lingering energy-inflation sensitivity, while longer-term bonds extended their rally as oil prices fell and demand for duration strengthened. A $44 billion auction of 7-year notes is scheduled for later today, and market observers will watch closely for any signs of persistent auction weakness. The key takeaway for origination: secondary market demand for government debt remains adequate, stabilizing funding costs for GSE mortgages. Borrower retention strategies are increasingly shifting from broad recapture percentages toward targeted, analytics-driven outreach that identifies homeowners most likely to benefit from a new product or rate reset. Many lenders report impressive headline recapture figures without standardizing definitions—some count only rate-and-term refinances while others include streamlined government products—rendering industry comparisons nearly meaningless. Servicers now leverage richer borrower data, updated tax and insurance information, and behavioral analytics to distinguish between borrowers worth pursuing versus those better left alone. This evolving sophistication means retention success no longer tracks with call volume but instead reflects the quality of pre-outreach decision-making. Originators seeking competitive advantage should audit whether their recapture efforts emphasize contact quantity or borrower fit, as the latter increasingly determines market share gains. **Locking vs Floating** Lenders face a measured backdrop for lock-versus-float decisions given modest tailwinds from pricing that hasn't caught up to yesterday's bond rally coupled with a potential technical breakdown if 10-year yields close below 4.42 percent. The risk-on environment that allowed intraday bond gains reflects rebalancing between stocks and bonds rather than a fundamental shift in Fed policy expectations. Building a small cushion for rate locks makes sense until the market confirms the technical level breaks on a second consecutive close. **Today's Events** Jobless Claims (Jun 20): 215,000 versus 225,000 forecast Personal Income (May, m/m): 0.7% versus 0.4% forecast Personal Spending (May, m/m): 0.7% versus 0.3% forecast Core PCE (May, m/m): 0.3% versus 0.3% forecast (in line) Core PCE (May, y/y): 3.4% versus 3.4% forecast (in line) PCE (May, y/y): 4.1% versus 4.1% forecast (in line) Durable Goods (May): -4.5% versus -4.5% forecast (in line) GDP Q1: 2.1% versus 1.6% forecast Treasury Auction (7-year, $44 billion): Scheduled for 1:00 PM ET **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.62 | 0.1 | | 5.5 | 100.58 | 0.11 | | 6.0 | 102.24 | 0.08 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.94 | 0.1 | | 5.5 | 100.67 | 0.13 | | 6.0 | 102.1 | 0 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.114 | 99.784 | -0.034 | | 3 yr | 4.116 | 100.025 | -0.03 | | 5 yr | 4.157 | 99.857 | -0.022 | | 7 yr | 4.256 | 99.963 | -0.02 | | 10 yr | 4.383 | 99.937 | -0.004 | | 30 yr | 4.84 | 102.525 | -0.008 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/24/26

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June 24, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/24/2026** The mortgage market ended sideways after the last meaningful rally faded on May 28, though yields are holding better than two weeks ago—a modest silver lining in an otherwise uninspired bond market. MBS prices surged nearly three-eighths this morning as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.6 basis points to 4.432 percent, signaling intraday support despite the broader lack of bullish catalysts. Bond traders continue viewing rallies with skepticism, treating moves higher as opportunities to sell rather than trends to follow. The technical ceiling remains critical; any move below 4.40 percent on the 10-year would signal meaningful momentum, but the Fed's hawkish tone keeps investors cautious. For originators, this sideways churn means lock-in periods should remain tight until market direction clarifies. Congress sent the largest housing bill in decades to President Trump's desk Wednesday, with overwhelming bipartisan support that suggests swift executive action. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act passed the House 358–32 after clearing the Senate 85–5 on Monday, addressing the nation's acute housing shortage estimated at over 4 million units. The measure focuses on boosting supply and restricting large investor purchases while streamlining development processes in key markets. Trump has signaled his support, making a signature likely within days. For mortgage originators, expanded housing supply could eventually increase purchase volumes, though near-term policy implementation remains unclear. Two Harbors postponed its shareholder vote for a fourth time, delaying until July 2 after proxy filings revealed 54 percent investor opposition to the CrossCountry Mortgage deal at 12 dollars per share plus a stub dividend. The board has extended the timeline to win over skeptical shareholders, though 47 of 53 required regulatory approvals are secured. United Wholesale Mortgage still offers 12.50 dollars cash or a lower stock alternative worth approximately 5.55 dollars per share in UWMC stock. If the vote succeeds July 2, closing is anticipated in August. The delay signals investor concerns about deal valuation and highlights ongoing consolidation pressure in the mortgage banking sector. The Mortgage Bankers Association released research warning that housing supply may soon outpace demand as demographic tailwinds fade and new construction continues. Slowing household formation driven by aging populations, lower fertility rates, and reduced immigration could shrink demand precisely as inventory expands across multiple markets. Seller concessions hit record highs this spring, already signaling softening affordability pressures. If construction remains elevated while household formation slows, some markets face price pressure and lower origination volumes. Originators should monitor inventory trends by geography, as supply-demand dynamics will increasingly determine regional profitability and purchase pipeline strength. Equities rebounded modestly as Treasury yields fell on easing inflation concerns, though artificial intelligence spending remains the focal point ahead of Micron Technology's earnings announcement. The dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, pushing crude oil below 75 dollars per barrel as tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz with transponders active, signaling reduced geopolitical risk. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose slightly, but tech sector volatility persists, with traders bracing for disappointing AI guidance from major chipmakers. Lower crude prices pushed U.S. diesel below 5 dollars per gallon for the first time since mid-March, easing transportation cost pressures. For mortgage lenders, equity volatility affects wholesale funding availability and investor appetite for mortgage-backed securities. CertifID acquired CloseSimple, combining fraud prevention with closing automation to address two critical pain points for title companies and lenders simultaneously. The deal pairs CertifID's track record of blocking over 283 million dollars in fraud and recovering 132 million dollars for victims with CloseSimple's workflow and portal automation. This follows CertifID's 2025 acquisition of payments platform Paymints, signaling a broader strategy to bundle security, payments, and transaction management under one platform. Digital closing infrastructure increasingly influences loan production costs and customer experience metrics. For mortgage originators evaluating technology vendors, integrated automation stacks may reduce operational risk while accelerating closing cycles. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds remain sideways with no clear bullish underpinnings; traders treat rallies with skepticism after May 28 marked the last meaningful move higher. The week's high yields are slightly lower than those seen two weeks ago, which themselves improved from mid-May levels. Rate ceilings and floors matter more than daily noise; monitoring the 10-year yield ceiling around 4.45 percent helps distinguish true momentum from noise. **Today's Events** MBA mortgage applications rose 1.0 percent for the week ending June 19, driven by a 3 percent increase in refinance activity (17 percent above year-ago levels). Building permits and housing starts for May are due. New home sales for May arrive later today. A 5-year Treasury note auction ($70 billion) occurs at 1 p.m. Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks at 2 p.m. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.32 | 0.33 | | 5.5 | 100.32 | 0.23 | | 6.0 | 102.12 | 0.19 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.66 | 0.30 | | 5.5 | 100.43 | 0.16 | | 6.0 | 102.08 | 0.14 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.161 | 99.694 | -0.037 | | 3yr | 4.171 | 99.873 | -0.047 | | 5yr | 4.210 | 99.619 | -0.059 | | 7yr | 4.309 | 99.644 | -0.065 | | 10yr | 4.428 | 99.575 | -0.070 | | 30yr | 4.872 | 102.009 | -0.075 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/23/26

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June 23, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/23/2026** Tech stocks tanked overnight as Wall Street questions whether AI spending hype is justified, dragging down equity futures and shifting focus back to fixed income. The Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.9% with semiconductor giants like SK Hynix and Samsung sliding over 10%, while the broader selloff pulled S&P 500 contracts down 1.3%. This pullback follows a spectacular first-half rally that left valuations stretched and retail investors nervous. Meanwhile, Treasuries found relief as traders dialed back rate-hike expectations, with the 10-year yield dropping 2.2 basis points to 4.49%. Agency MBS prices ticked higher on the equity weakness, posting gains of roughly an eighth of a point. The U.S. Senate passed the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with strong momentum toward House passage later this week, aiming to lower housing costs and restrict institutional investors from outbidding families. The legislation, which pairs supply-side reforms with restrictions on Wall Street home buying, represents a rare moment of agreement in Congress driven partly by midterm election concerns. JPMorganChase released a policy brief showing how innovative construction methods including modular and manufactured homes can slash building costs by 20-30% and timelines by 30-50%, addressing the affordability crisis. Key state examples like Maryland, Colorado, and Texas are testing zoning reforms, building code changes, and permitting streamlining to enable faster housing development. For mortgage lenders, this legislative momentum signals potential demand shifts as supply increases and affordability improves. A notable disconnect emerged in bond markets as the 10-year Treasury weakened while related assets diverged, reinforcing a bearish technical picture despite modest intraday gains. The bond market remains unwilling to break through key technical support floors, keeping the "bearish until proven bullish" narrative alive for lock-and-float traders. Heavy stock selling is providing some support to MBS and Treasuries, but this relief appears fragile given the geopolitical backdrop and rate-hike concerns. Treasury auctions today include $69 billion in 2-year notes, which will test demand after recent auctions showed notable tailing. The economic calendar features ADP employment data at 8:15 AM and preliminary June PMIs at 9:45 AM, though neither is expected to move rates significantly. The AI adoption gap is widening rapidly across the mortgage industry, with most lenders still in pilot phase while a select few are operationalizing AI at scale. According to MISMO leadership, the difference between workflow acceleration (doing tasks faster) and operational intelligence (making better decisions at scale) will separate winners from losers over the next three to five years. Lenders experimenting with tools are missing the bigger opportunity: redesigning business processes around AI capabilities. This distinction matters for competitive positioning as the industry evolves beyond proof-of-concept stages. For originators and servicers, the message is clear—moving from testing to implementation determines survival. Iran sanctions easing through a temporary U.S. Treasury waiver created initial upward pressure on bond yields, though actual oil market impact remains modest with Brent trading around $77.30 per barrel. The geopolitical uncertainty from negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland created volatility early in the week but has since settled as traders focus on economic data and Fed rhetoric. With Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish commentary on inflation fighting, markets shifted expectations upward on rate hikes, pressuring long-duration assets like technology stocks and extending MBS duration risk. The Fed's dot plot projections added to rate-hike concerns despite the central bank cutting 175 basis points since mid-2024. Mortgage originators should monitor next week's PCE inflation report closely, as it represents the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Market positioning favors mid-stack MBS coupons over higher-duration securities as investors adopt a "wait-and-see" stance toward rate decisions and geopolitical news. Despite MBS appearing attractive relative to investment-grade corporate bonds on a relative value basis, participants remain cautious given double uncertainty from Fed policy and global tensions. The bull-steepening Treasury curve reflects the equity selloff and reduced rate-hike expectations, providing some relief for mortgage servicers and portfolio managers. Mortgage lender hiring remains robust with firms like EPM experiencing record growth and actively recruiting underwriters, account managers, and entire teams. Verification and employment validation technology continues advancing, with platforms like Truework and Kind Lending offering cost savings of 20-50% on income documentation. **Locking vs Floating** Bond weakness persists despite modest intraday strength as the market refuses to challenge key technical support levels. Early-week momentum turned bearish as traders reassessed Fed rate-hike odds and digested hawkish Chair Warsh commentary. Lock strategy remains prudent until bond technicals prove strength, while floaters expose borrowers to lingering geopolitical and inflation risks. **Today's Events** 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Change (June preliminary) 9:45 AM — Markit Purchasing Managers' Indices (June preliminary) 11:30 AM — 6-Week Treasury Bill Auction 1:00 PM — 2-Year Treasury Note Auction ($69 billion) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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