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“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

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I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/16/26

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March 16, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/16/2026 Markets are showing modest improvement this morning after last week's brutal selloff that pushed mortgage rates to a six-month high. UMBS prices gained a quarter point overnight while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.223%, down from Friday's close of 4.29%. This morning's stability comes despite weaker-than-expected Empire manufacturing data, which missed forecasts badly at -0.2 versus an expected 3.2. The three-day rate surge that ended Friday was painful for originators watching deals fall apart. Mortgage rates rocketed from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% by Friday, marking the fastest three-day climb since early April 2025 and hitting levels not seen since last September. The culprit remains geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Iran war, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel as concerns mount over the Strait of Hormuz potentially closing. President Trump asked China for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquid natural gas supply. The diplomatic outreach makes sense given China's heavy dependence on energy flowing through that channel. If successful, reduced oil price pressure could ease the inflation fears currently weighing on bonds. This week's FOMC meeting looms large, with policymakers facing an uncomfortable stagflation scenario as growth slows while inflation remains sticky. The Fed is universally expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, preserving flexibility amid massive uncertainty around energy prices. Markets that once priced in multiple rate cuts this year are now questioning whether we'll see even one, especially with core PCE inflation ticking up to 3.1% year-over-year while Q4 GDP was revised sharply down to just 0.7%. New executive orders targeting housing supply and mortgage access could reshape the origination landscape if implemented as outlined. The first order directs HUD and FHFA to cut regulatory barriers to home construction by streamlining permitting, scaling back green energy mandates, and easing restrictions on manufactured housing. The second order takes aim squarely at mortgage access by directing the CFPB to expand the qualified mortgage definition, potentially replace TRID timing rules, and create broader safe harbor for portfolio loans while modernizing appraisals through AI and automated valuation models. Industry reaction to the executive orders has been cautiously optimistic, with MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit welcoming reduced compliance costs but emphasizing that benefits should extend to all lenders, not just banks. These changes could significantly impact how you structure and process loans in coming months. Meanwhile, Redfin research shows private listings and "coming soon" properties could boost available inventory by 12%, offering a potential lifeline in markets still constrained by tight supply. Locking vs Floating Geopolitical volatility remains the dominant risk factor, with March proving bearish for rates across the board. Given the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and Wednesday's Fed decision, defensive posturing makes sense until the bearish streak clearly levels off. If you have borrowers closing within 30 days, locking now protects against further geopolitical shocks that could push rates higher. Today's Events NY Fed Manufacturing (March): -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (February): Released later today NAHB Housing Market Index (March): Released later today Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.43 | | 5.0 | 99.20 | 0.31 | | 5.5 | 100.85 | 0.21 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.24 | | 5.0 | 99.62 | 0.27 | | 5.5 | 100.79 | 0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.682 | 99.653 | -0.048 | | 3 yr | 3.692 | 99.460 | -0.056 | | 5 yr | 3.806 | 99.745 | -0.048 | | 7 yr | 4.003 | 99.982 | -0.058 | | 10 yr | 4.223 | 98.198 | -0.059 | | 30 yr | 4.858 | 96.343 | -0.044 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this analysis in your inbox daily. Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/26

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March 13, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/2026 Mortgage rates spiked to 2026 highs this week as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel, creating inflationary headwinds that overwhelmed otherwise encouraging economic data. The 30-year fixed rate climbed 11 basis points to 6.11%, while the 15-year jumped 7 basis points to 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. While rates remain 54 basis points lower than a year ago, the recent surge underscores how energy market volatility can override traditional fundamental drivers. This morning's economic data dump revealed a dramatically weaker Q4 GDP picture than initially reported, with growth slashed in half from 1.4% to just 0.7% annually. The downward revision affected all GDP components, with the government shutdown cited as a key drag on economic activity. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model badly missed the mark by predicting 5% growth, raising questions about forecasting accuracy amid volatile policy conditions. January's PCE inflation data came in exactly as expected, with core PCE rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, doing little to change the inflation narrative. Personal income rose 0.4% while disposable income jumped 0.9%, though spending increased only 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain cautious. The bigger market mover was core retail sales, which flatlined at 0% versus expectations of 0.5%, while durable goods orders also disappointed with zero growth against forecasts of 1.2%. The Senate overwhelmingly passed landmark housing legislation yesterday in a rare display of bipartisan cooperation, with Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren co-sponsoring the bill. The legislation eases financing for manufactured housing by eliminating the permanent foundation requirement, which should improve affordability for entry-level buyers. The bill also directs the CFPB to report on loan officer compensation policies and point-and-fee caps, potentially signaling the first steps toward relaxing rules that make small-dollar loans unprofitable for many lenders. However, the bill's ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes drew criticism from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which warned it could limit build-for-rent supply and ultimately worsen affordability. The MBA's concerns highlight the unintended consequences of policies targeting institutional buyers, as these investors have increasingly funded new construction inventory. Meanwhile, new FHA loss-mitigation rules are driving severe delinquencies sharply higher, jumping from 5.1% at year-end to 6.1% by February as borrowers are now limited to one home-retention option every 24 months. Bond markets showed modest improvement this morning despite the data deluge, with UMBS prices up an eighth of a point and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 1.34 basis points to 4.252%. The muted reaction reflects how geopolitical risk has become the dominant pricing factor, overshadowing economic fundamentals. Oil prices pulled back slightly from overnight highs, providing some relief, but crude remains elevated as markets assess potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel strike on Iran. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains substantially elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with March proving consistently bearish for rates thus far. Core retail sales and GDP both missed expectations while PCE matched forecasts, creating modest downward pressure on yields this morning. However, the entire month has trended against borrowers, making defensive positioning prudent until the bearish momentum clearly levels off. Pipeline protection should be the priority in this environment where reprices can happen in very short order. Next week's FOMC meeting looms large, with markets focused less on the policy decision itself and more on Chair Powell's tone and word choice regarding oil price impacts on inflation guidance. Given current conditions, locking transactions closing within 30 days appears advisable. Today's Events Core Retail Sales (Jan): 0% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous Core PCE month-over-month (Jan): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous Core PCE year-over-year (Jan): 3.1% vs 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous Durable Goods (Jan): 0% vs 1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous GDP Q4: 0.7% vs 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous GDP Final Sales Q4: 0.4% vs 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous PCE year-over-year (Jan): 2.8% vs 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous PCE prices month-over-month (Jan): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.13 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 100.8 | 0.14 | | 5.0 | 99.48 | -0.05 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.704 | 99.61 | -0.032 | | 3 yr | 3.719 | 99.384 | -0.037 | | 5 yr | 3.834 | 99.621 | -0.031 | | 7 yr | 4.024 | 99.852 | -0.03 | | 10 yr | 4.24 | 98.057 | -0.024 | | 30 yr | 4.873 | 96.119 | -0.01 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/12/26

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March 12, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/12/2026 Mortgage markets took another beating Thursday as geopolitical tensions continued to dominate trading. MBS dropped 3/8ths of a point while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.27%, its highest level since early February. The bond market is staging what can only be described as a war protest, with no end to the Iran conflict in sight. Oil prices surged 9% after Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease. This critical shipping channel normally carries one-fifth of the world's oil supply, and its closure is causing what the International Energy Agency calls the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Two fuel tankers were set ablaze in Iraqi waters, and Iraq has completely suspended oil port operations following the attacks. The inflationary implications are keeping the Federal Reserve firmly on the sidelines. Fed funds futures now price in just 30 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 50 basis points a few weeks ago, with most economists expecting the first cut in June at the earliest. The 2-year Treasury yield hit 3.75%, its highest level since August, as traders pushed back expectations for monetary policy relief. Housing data delivered a mixed message for mortgage originators. January housing starts jumped 7.2% to 1.487 million units, crushing expectations of 1.35 million, but the details reveal a lopsided recovery. Multi-unit developments surged 29.1% to their highest level in over a year, while single-family starts fell 2.8% and building permits dropped 5.4% month-over-month. The labor market continues to show resilience despite February's surprise job losses. Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims dropped to 1.85 million. This stability gives the Fed room to stay patient on rate cuts even as gasoline prices have jumped 20% since the war began. Industry developments paint a challenging picture for lenders navigating this volatile environment. Radian Group announced it's shutting down its mortgage conduit business entirely rather than selling it, choosing to refocus on its core mortgage insurance operations. Meanwhile, loanDepot reported $8.04 billion in Q4 originations, its highest quarterly volume since 2022, showing that well-positioned lenders can still gain market share. Interestingly, homebuyers haven't panicked yet despite the war and rising oil prices. An Ipsos poll commissioned by Redfin found that just one in four Americans has delayed big-ticket purchases like homes and cars due to the Iran conflict. However, home price appreciation slipped into negative territory in February according to Clear Capital, suggesting affordability pressures are finally catching up to demand. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and oil market disruptions. March has been uniformly bearish for rates so far, with no signs of the trend reversing. It makes sense to remain defensive and lock near-term closings until the bearish streak clearly levels off. Today's Events - Building Permits (Jan): 1.376M vs 1.41M forecast, 1.455M previous - Continued Claims (Feb 28): 1,850K vs 1,850K forecast, 1,868K previous - Housing Starts (Jan): 1.487M vs 1.35M forecast, 1.404M previous - Jobless Claims (Mar 7): 213K vs 215K forecast, 213K previous - Trade Gap (Jan): -$54.50B vs -$66.6B forecast, -$70.3B previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.92 | -0.34 | | 5.5 | 100.66 | -0.23 | | 5.0 | 99.53 | -0.24 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.747 | 99.529 | 0.096 | | 3 yr | 3.761 | 99.265 | 0.089 | | 5 yr | 3.872 | 99.449 | 0.072 | | 7 yr | 4.054 | 99.671 | 0.053 | | 10 yr | 4.265 | 97.863 | 0.038 | | 30 yr | 4.882 | 95.973 | 0.005 | Market Data

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