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Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/26

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November 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/2026** Hotter CPI ended the early‑November bond rally, sending mortgage bonds and rates sharply the wrong way. Traders shed the “tech-jitters” safe‑haven trade and repriced for more Fed restraint. The move resets near‑term momentum and puts the recent downtrend in rates at risk. Volatility is elevated into the mid‑week holiday. Expect choppy price action around liquidity pockets. UMBS led the downturn as front‑end Treasury yields surged on the inflation surprise. By the close, 30‑year UMBS 6.0 fell 62 ticks to 99.43, while the 10‑year Treasury yield jumped roughly 10 bps to 4.98 percent. Losses were broad across coupons and GNMA stacks, with Ginnie 6.0 down 59 ticks. Fed‑funds futures nudged higher for December hike odds, reflecting the stickier inflation profile. Bid/ask and liquidity widened intraday before stabilizing late. Context matters: last week’s rally rested on AI/tech credit fears and slumping oil, not on softer inflation. With that cover fading today, the market refocused on the Fed’s inflation mandate. A mid‑week holiday can distort flows, so follow‑through may be uneven. A durable trend reversal likely needs either renewed tech stress or unequivocally softer inflation data. Until then, respect the range and trade defensively. On the origination front, modest rate relief into early November didn’t lift activity much. MBA data showed purchase apps slipping again, while Mortgage News Daily’s rate index hovered in the low‑7s (about 7.30–7.37 percent). Adjustable‑rate share pushed to a yearly high as borrowers hunt payment relief. Turn times and pricing discipline matter more than ever with secondary spreads still sensitive to volatility. Expect intraday reprice risk to stay lively. Servicing strategy remains pivotal as equity‑driven refis dominate what little refi volume exists. ICE estimates homeowners hold a record $17.5 trillion in tappable equity, yet servicers retained only 27 percent of refinancing borrowers last quarter. Cash‑out transactions are the main runoff driver. Lenders with strong database monitoring, HELOC/cash‑out options, and timely outreach will win more of that business. Housing remains a tale of leverage, not lift. Inventory has improved and buyers are negotiating more, but pending sales and contract signings continue to lag. Payments rose ~13 percent year‑over‑year even with largely flat prices, keeping affordability strained. For originators, that favors precise structuring: concessions, buydowns, and ARMs tailored to borrower cash‑flow constraints. **Locking vs Floating** Today’s CPI upside puts the recent rate rally at risk, so near‑term closings should favor locking on morning strength and avoiding late‑day whipsaws. Tactical floaters need tight triggers (e.g., 10‑year holding below 4.93–5.00 percent) and a willingness to lock quickly on adverse moves. A sustained leg lower in rates likely requires fresh downside surprises in inflation or renewed tech/AI credit stress. Expect elevated intraday volatility around the mid‑week holiday and data headlines; keep pipeline hedges snug and be selective with premium pricing. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/10/26

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November 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/10/2026** Hotter CPI slammed bonds this morning, with core +0.3% m/m (vs. 0.2% est) and headline +0.4% (vs. 0.3% est) pushing the 10-year back toward 4.90–4.95%. UMBS prices slipped on the print as Fed Governor Waller backed a December hike and said he’d support a larger move if inflation re-accelerates. Rate sheets face renewed pressure after last week’s relief. Markets now lean more decisively toward a December move while watching how much of today’s weakness passes through to primary mortgage pricing. Expect intraday volatility around the 10-year auction. The backdrop remains whipsaw volatility: an AI-led equity selloff and a sharp oil drop briefly rekindled a flight-to-quality, pulling the 10-year below 5.0% late last week. That rally stalled as tech stabilized and policy hawks reasserted the inflation fight, leaving MBS lagging Treasuries on spread. With convexity still a headwind, production coupons haven’t fully captured the Treasury rally. For secondary teams, that means two‑sided risk into auctions and data. On the mortgage tape, prepayments slowed in October (Ginnie speeds -14.8% m/m; conventional -9.2%), and refinancing incentives remain scarce with the modeled par rate still near 7%. ARM usage continues to climb (October locks ~17%) as borrowers hunt monthly savings. GNMA liquidity remains orderly, but mid-coupon UMBS/GNMA 5.0–6.0s offer the best relative value if volatility moderates. Expect servicing-heavy names to benefit near-term from slower speeds despite today’s rate pop. Origination flow is mixed: MBA apps dipped last week (purchases -2% w/w; -19% y/y), though TransUnion’s Q2 showed originations +12.8% y/y with HELOCs +20.3%. Competitive dynamics are shifting—Zillow Home Loans’ FHA down-payment assistance (a 0%/no‑payment subordinate forgivable after five years) raises the bar on borrower offers, not just rates. LOs should lead with total-cost solutions (buys, ARMs, buydowns, HELOCs) and be ready to counter real-time with fully priced scenarios. Pipeline hedgers face familiar “rally fades/risk lingers” math: a further rate rise widens MBS basis; a bond bid shortens duration and forces hedge trims. Keep lock desks nimble into supply and data, and prioritize execution where investor appetite is deepest in higher coupons. Explain rate-sheet moves proactively—especially around auction tails and CPI‑driven reprices—to reduce concession creep. Housing demand is still constrained: October contract signings fell 17% y/y to a record low for the month, even as active listings rose 7.4% and median asking prices eased 2.2%. Cancellations were steady at 7.8%, but fewer fresh listings (-7.5% y/y) limit true inventory churn. Translation: tighter pipelines, longer cycle times, and more rate sensitivity per file. Focus on turn-times, lock discipline, and cost-to-manufacture. **Locking vs Floating** With the CPI miss and a 10-year auction on deck, bias tilts toward locking on day-of-closing and short-horizon loans; float only if you have cushion, time, and a defined stop. The 10-year’s 5.00% area remains a key pivot—failed rallies there have reversed quickly. Recent bond strength was tech/oil driven, not a fundamental disinflation shift; treat rate dips as tactical. Be ready for headline whipsaws and negative reprices through the auction window. Take wins early if pricing meets borrower goals. **Today's Events** - October CPI: headline +0.4% m/m; core +0.3% m/m - U.S. 10-year Treasury auction (1:00 PM ET) - Fed speakers: Waller, Logan, Schmid - NFIB Small Business Optimism (AM) - Wholesale Inventories (PM) Subscribe free for daily brevity at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/09/26

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November 9, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/09/2026** Bonds held their ground despite a stock rebound, with UMBS 6.0 near 100.09 (-0.01) and the 10-year Treasury up modestly to 4.88%. After last week’s rally, trading suggests rates are getting comfortable at these levels. MBS price changes were small and orderly through the session. Lenders saw only limited negative reprice risk intraday. CPI now moves to center stage. The recent bond rally has been most sensitive to “neocloud”/AI tech jitters; today’s equity bounce didn’t meaningfully unwind that support. Softer oil prices provided an additional tailwind. Post‑election volatility cooled, and markets refocused on data. Treasury supply remains a background factor, but not a primary driver today. Net effect: consolidation, not capitulation. Near-term catalysts arrive quickly: Tuesday’s CPI and later-week PPI can shift the rate path. Treasury auctions and corporate supply may add cross‑currents. A benign inflation print could extend the rally; a hot one risks a push back toward 4.93–5.00% in 10s. Until then, price action implies “wait-and-see” over wholesale repositioning. Keep intraday equity swings on the radar. In coupons, 30‑year UMBS 6.0 slipped a tick while 6.5s added a hair, reflecting a steady curve and manageable convexity. GNMA 6.0 lagged slightly, down 0.04. Mortgage spreads were broadly stable as desks marked minor moves rather than trends. Primary mortgage rates remain in the low‑7s on average, with lender‑level dispersion tied to coupon mix and hedging. Liquidity was decent for a Monday. On the origination side, equity is the story: homeowners hold a record ~$17.5T, and cash‑out is now the bulk of refi locks. Servicer retention on refis fell to 27%, meaning most cash‑out borrowers are leaving their current lender. That’s an opening for proactive outreach and HELOC/second‑lien options. ARM share continues to tick higher as buyers hunt payment relief. Housing remains mixed: inventory is improving and buyers have more leverage, yet payments rose ~13% YoY with flat headline prices as rates did the heavy lifting. Expect slower pendings into year‑end and a cautious start to 2027 without clearer rate relief. For now, focus on payment‑centric structures, buydowns, and equity‑based solutions to keep deals live. **Locking vs Floating** With CPI tomorrow, near‑term risk skews to volatility rather than trend change. Risk‑averse pipelines should favor locking on workable quotes, especially for closings inside two weeks. Risk‑tolerant borrowers can float cautiously, using clear triggers near 10‑year yield resistance at ~4.93–5.00% and locking on adverse breaks. Expect whipsaws around the print; keep repricing thresholds tight, particularly on lower‑liquidity coupons. Bigger, sustained gains still likely require renewed tech/AI sector stress or cooler inflation. **Today's Events** - 1:00 PM ET: 3-Year Treasury Note Auction (indicative award 4.932%) - Tomorrow: CPI (key market catalyst) - Roll Date – UMBS 30YR (Tuesday) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data