Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

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I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/20/26

Week In Review
February 20, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/20/2026 Markets received a mixed bag of economic data that failed to inspire significant movement in either direction. Core PCE inflation came in hotter than expected at 0.4% monthly versus 0.3% forecast, while annual core PCE jumped to 3.0% from 2.8% previously. This uptick in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge adds complexity to future monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP disappointed dramatically at just 1.4% versus 3.0% forecasted, showing economic growth cooling faster than anticipated. UMBS securities traded relatively flat with minor pressure across coupons. The 5.0 coupon held steady at 100.27 with minimal daily change, while higher coupons like the 6.0 showed slightly more weakness dropping 2 basis points. GNMA securities displayed mixed performance with the 6.0 coupon actually gaining 7 basis points, suggesting some rotation between security types. Treasury markets showed modest strength overnight but gave back gains after the data release. The 10-year yield sits at 4.071%, down just 5 basis points for the session despite the inflation surprise. This muted reaction suggests traders are weighing the conflicting signals from higher inflation against weaker growth data. Locking vs Floating Thursday's bond market showed little conviction in either direction, setting up today's busy economic calendar as the key driver. With rates sitting near long-term lows, risk-averse clients should maintain their lock bias given the potential for rapid changes. The combination of hotter inflation and weaker growth creates a two-way risk environment where data surprises could trigger quick movements before rate sheets are released. Today's Events - Core PCE (m/m) (Dec): 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast - Core PCE (y/y) (Dec): 3.0% vs 2.9% forecast - GDP Q4: 1.4% vs 3.0% forecast - PCE (y/y) (Dec): 2.9% vs 2.8% forecast Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.27 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 101.54 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.5 | -0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.16 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.18 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 102.06 | 0.07 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.47 | 100.058 | 0.005 | | 3 yr | 3.497 | 100.009 | 0.008 | | 5 yr | 3.645 | 100.478 | 0.01 | | 7 yr | 3.84 | 100.975 | 0.002 | | 10 yr | 4.071 | 99.421 | -0.005 | | 30 yr | 4.702 | 98.775 | 0.005 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 02/19/26

Week In Review
February 19, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 02/19/2026 Bond markets recovered dramatically from morning weakness, with MBS reaching best levels of the day by 1:38 PM. The UMBS 5.0 coupon climbed 6 basis points while 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.068%, a full 3 basis point improvement from morning highs. This afternoon rally suggests investors are positioning defensively ahead of Friday's heavy economic data calendar. Strong jobless claims data at 206K versus 225K forecast should have pressured bonds, but markets shrugged off the positive news. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index also beat expectations at 16.3 compared to the 8.5 forecast. Instead of selling on strength, traders appear focused on technical resistance levels and Friday's potential market-moving releases. GNMA securities outperformed with the 5.5 coupon gaining 2 basis points, creating better execution opportunities for certain loan products. This divergence between UMBS and GNMA pricing reflects varying investor appetite across security types. For originators, this could mean slightly different pricing depending on your outlet's preferences for government-backed securities. The January FOMC meeting minutes revealed the Committee's comfort with current monetary policy, viewing recent labor market softening as complete. They believe inflation will continue moving toward the 2% target while the labor market gradually improves. With the Fed Funds rate considered near neutral territory, markets are pricing in approximately two more rate cuts this year. Mortgage servicing rights continue showing resilience despite rate volatility, with values holding just above 6% and down 76 basis points from last year. Housing construction data showed mixed signals with permits falling 7.4% annually, suggesting limited acceleration in building activity. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also contributing to market uncertainty as oil prices spike on potential military action with Iran. Locking vs Floating Market technicals favor a defensive approach given the failure to build on recent gains. Friday's economic data presents two-way risk, but with rates at long-term lows, risk-averse clients remain lock-biased. The current setup suggests caution over optimism for further rate improvements. Today's Events - Jobless Claims (Feb 14): 206K vs 225K forecast, 227K previous - Philly Fed Business Index (Feb): 16.3 vs 8.5 forecast, 12.6 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.28 | 0.03 | | 5.5 | 101.55 | 0 | | 6.0 | 102.52 | 0 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.18 | 0.01 | | 5.5 | 101.22 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.99 | 0 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.455 | 100.086 | -0.01 | | 3 yr | 3.489 | 100.03 | -0.011 | | 5 yr | 3.634 | 100.525 | -0.018 | | 7 yr | 3.837 | 100.993 | -0.015 | | 10 yr | 4.076 | 99.378 | -0.008 | | 30 yr | 4.697 | 98.853 | -0.011 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/19/26

Week In Review
February 19, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/19/2026 Mortgage markets opened weaker this morning with little reaction to surprisingly positive economic data. The UMBS 5.0 coupon dropped 4 basis points while 10-year Treasury yields climbed 2.5 basis points to 4.102%. This early morning weakness suggests underlying technical resistance at the critical 4% level that mortgage originators should watch closely. Jobless Claims came in at 206,000, significantly better than the 225,000 forecast and previous week's 227,000 reading. The Philadelphia Fed Business Index also surprised to the upside at 16.3 versus expectations of 8.5. Despite these strong economic indicators, bond markets failed to react positively, indicating broader technical concerns are weighing on sentiment. The lack of market response to good economic news is telling mortgage professionals that technical factors may be overriding fundamental data. Ten-year yields are facing resistance at the 4% mark, and historically, bonds have been limited to 25 basis point rallies with corrections following each attempt since July 2025. This pattern suggests mortgage rates may struggle to improve significantly in the near term. GNMA securities showed mixed performance with the 5.5 coupon actually gaining 2 basis points while other coupons declined. This divergence in GNMA pricing compared to UMBS indicates varying investor appetite across different security types. For originators, this could mean slightly better execution on certain loan products depending on your outlet's preferences. Locking vs Floating Market technicals suggest a defensive approach given bonds' failure to build on last week's gains. The 4% resistance level in 10-year yields appears to be holding firm, creating an environment where further rate improvements seem limited. While economic data over the next two days could provide surprises, the current setup favors caution over optimism for rate improvements. Today's Events - Jobless Claims (Feb 14): 206K vs 225K forecast, 227K previous - Philly Fed Business Index (Feb): 16.3 vs 8.5 forecast, 12.6 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.21 | -0.04 | | 5.5 | 101.55 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.52 | 0 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.13 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 101.22 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.94 | -0.05 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.474 | 100.05 | 0.009 | | 3 yr | 3.51 | 99.973 | 0.013 | | 5 yr | 3.661 | 100.402 | 0.013 | | 7 yr | 3.861 | 100.847 | 0.009 | | 10 yr | 4.091 | 99.261 | 0.013 | | 30 yr | 4.718 | 98.522 | 0.01 | Market Data

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