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“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

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I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/26

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March 13, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/13/2026 Mortgage rates spiked to 2026 highs this week as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel, creating inflationary headwinds that overwhelmed otherwise encouraging economic data. The 30-year fixed rate climbed 11 basis points to 6.11%, while the 15-year jumped 7 basis points to 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. While rates remain 54 basis points lower than a year ago, the recent surge underscores how energy market volatility can override traditional fundamental drivers. This morning's economic data dump revealed a dramatically weaker Q4 GDP picture than initially reported, with growth slashed in half from 1.4% to just 0.7% annually. The downward revision affected all GDP components, with the government shutdown cited as a key drag on economic activity. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model badly missed the mark by predicting 5% growth, raising questions about forecasting accuracy amid volatile policy conditions. January's PCE inflation data came in exactly as expected, with core PCE rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, doing little to change the inflation narrative. Personal income rose 0.4% while disposable income jumped 0.9%, though spending increased only 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain cautious. The bigger market mover was core retail sales, which flatlined at 0% versus expectations of 0.5%, while durable goods orders also disappointed with zero growth against forecasts of 1.2%. The Senate overwhelmingly passed landmark housing legislation yesterday in a rare display of bipartisan cooperation, with Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren co-sponsoring the bill. The legislation eases financing for manufactured housing by eliminating the permanent foundation requirement, which should improve affordability for entry-level buyers. The bill also directs the CFPB to report on loan officer compensation policies and point-and-fee caps, potentially signaling the first steps toward relaxing rules that make small-dollar loans unprofitable for many lenders. However, the bill's ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes drew criticism from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which warned it could limit build-for-rent supply and ultimately worsen affordability. The MBA's concerns highlight the unintended consequences of policies targeting institutional buyers, as these investors have increasingly funded new construction inventory. Meanwhile, new FHA loss-mitigation rules are driving severe delinquencies sharply higher, jumping from 5.1% at year-end to 6.1% by February as borrowers are now limited to one home-retention option every 24 months. Bond markets showed modest improvement this morning despite the data deluge, with UMBS prices up an eighth of a point and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 1.34 basis points to 4.252%. The muted reaction reflects how geopolitical risk has become the dominant pricing factor, overshadowing economic fundamentals. Oil prices pulled back slightly from overnight highs, providing some relief, but crude remains elevated as markets assess potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel strike on Iran. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains substantially elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with March proving consistently bearish for rates thus far. Core retail sales and GDP both missed expectations while PCE matched forecasts, creating modest downward pressure on yields this morning. However, the entire month has trended against borrowers, making defensive positioning prudent until the bearish momentum clearly levels off. Pipeline protection should be the priority in this environment where reprices can happen in very short order. Next week's FOMC meeting looms large, with markets focused less on the policy decision itself and more on Chair Powell's tone and word choice regarding oil price impacts on inflation guidance. Given current conditions, locking transactions closing within 30 days appears advisable. Today's Events Core Retail Sales (Jan): 0% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous Core PCE month-over-month (Jan): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous Core PCE year-over-year (Jan): 3.1% vs 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous Durable Goods (Jan): 0% vs 1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous GDP Q4: 0.7% vs 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous GDP Final Sales Q4: 0.4% vs 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous PCE year-over-year (Jan): 2.8% vs 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous PCE prices month-over-month (Jan): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.13 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 100.8 | 0.14 | | 5.0 | 99.48 | -0.05 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.704 | 99.61 | -0.032 | | 3 yr | 3.719 | 99.384 | -0.037 | | 5 yr | 3.834 | 99.621 | -0.031 | | 7 yr | 4.024 | 99.852 | -0.03 | | 10 yr | 4.24 | 98.057 | -0.024 | | 30 yr | 4.873 | 96.119 | -0.01 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/12/26

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March 12, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/12/2026 Mortgage markets took another beating Thursday as geopolitical tensions continued to dominate trading. MBS dropped 3/8ths of a point while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.27%, its highest level since early February. The bond market is staging what can only be described as a war protest, with no end to the Iran conflict in sight. Oil prices surged 9% after Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease. This critical shipping channel normally carries one-fifth of the world's oil supply, and its closure is causing what the International Energy Agency calls the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Two fuel tankers were set ablaze in Iraqi waters, and Iraq has completely suspended oil port operations following the attacks. The inflationary implications are keeping the Federal Reserve firmly on the sidelines. Fed funds futures now price in just 30 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 50 basis points a few weeks ago, with most economists expecting the first cut in June at the earliest. The 2-year Treasury yield hit 3.75%, its highest level since August, as traders pushed back expectations for monetary policy relief. Housing data delivered a mixed message for mortgage originators. January housing starts jumped 7.2% to 1.487 million units, crushing expectations of 1.35 million, but the details reveal a lopsided recovery. Multi-unit developments surged 29.1% to their highest level in over a year, while single-family starts fell 2.8% and building permits dropped 5.4% month-over-month. The labor market continues to show resilience despite February's surprise job losses. Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims dropped to 1.85 million. This stability gives the Fed room to stay patient on rate cuts even as gasoline prices have jumped 20% since the war began. Industry developments paint a challenging picture for lenders navigating this volatile environment. Radian Group announced it's shutting down its mortgage conduit business entirely rather than selling it, choosing to refocus on its core mortgage insurance operations. Meanwhile, loanDepot reported $8.04 billion in Q4 originations, its highest quarterly volume since 2022, showing that well-positioned lenders can still gain market share. Interestingly, homebuyers haven't panicked yet despite the war and rising oil prices. An Ipsos poll commissioned by Redfin found that just one in four Americans has delayed big-ticket purchases like homes and cars due to the Iran conflict. However, home price appreciation slipped into negative territory in February according to Clear Capital, suggesting affordability pressures are finally catching up to demand. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and oil market disruptions. March has been uniformly bearish for rates so far, with no signs of the trend reversing. It makes sense to remain defensive and lock near-term closings until the bearish streak clearly levels off. Today's Events - Building Permits (Jan): 1.376M vs 1.41M forecast, 1.455M previous - Continued Claims (Feb 28): 1,850K vs 1,850K forecast, 1,868K previous - Housing Starts (Jan): 1.487M vs 1.35M forecast, 1.404M previous - Jobless Claims (Mar 7): 213K vs 215K forecast, 213K previous - Trade Gap (Jan): -$54.50B vs -$66.6B forecast, -$70.3B previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.92 | -0.34 | | 5.5 | 100.66 | -0.23 | | 5.0 | 99.53 | -0.24 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.747 | 99.529 | 0.096 | | 3 yr | 3.761 | 99.265 | 0.089 | | 5 yr | 3.872 | 99.449 | 0.072 | | 7 yr | 4.054 | 99.671 | 0.053 | | 10 yr | 4.265 | 97.863 | 0.038 | | 30 yr | 4.882 | 95.973 | 0.005 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/12/26

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March 12, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/12/2026 Geopolitical tensions just slammed the mortgage market with MBS dropping an eighth of a point in minutes. President Trump's comments about prioritizing stopping Iran over oil prices triggered immediate bond selling, followed by Iran's Khamenei announcing the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. UMBS 5.0 coupons fell to 99.15, down 12 ticks, while the 10-year Treasury yield spiked 2.2 basis points to 4.248%. Early-pricing lenders are already eyeing negative reprices as volatility continues to dominate March trading. This morning's economic data painted a mixed housing picture that markets largely ignored amid the geopolitical chaos. Housing starts jumped 7.2% month-over-month to 1.487 million units, beating expectations and showing 9% year-over-year growth. Building permits disappointed at 1.376 million, down 5.4% and missing forecasts. Weekly jobless claims hit 213,000 as expected, while the January trade deficit narrowed significantly to $54.5 billion from $70.3 billion, driven by a surge in exports. Yesterday's rate deterioration felt more severe than typical daily swings due to technical factors in mortgage pricing. The 10-year Treasury yield broke decisively above the closely watched 4.20% level, triggering widespread bond selling that hit MBS even harder than Treasuries. Many mortgage securities are trading near par value, meaning their pricing relies heavily on interest-only valuations that amplify rate movements when markets shift quickly. The widening spread between MBS and Treasury prices forced lenders to reprice for the worse to protect margins. Oil prices are driving inflation concerns as crude has surged 25% since late February amid the Iran conflict. The February CPI report offered no relief on inflation, coming in as expected and reinforcing that disinflationary progress has stalled. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is expected to post another solid 0.4% monthly gain when it prints tomorrow. Despite inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve is still expected to deliver two modest rate cuts later this year while focusing primarily on energy dynamics and geopolitical risks. March has been relentlessly bearish for mortgage rates with yields climbing across the curve. Treasury yields closed above their 200-day moving averages yesterday after weak demand at a $39 billion 10-year note reopening. Today brings a $22 billion reopened 30-year bond auction and remarks from Fed Vice Chair Bowman on Basel III bank capital rules. The New York Fed will also conduct a buyback operation for $4 billion in 7-year to 10-year coupons to support liquidity. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains significantly elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. March has delivered consistent selling pressure for rates without any clear signs of leveling off. Given the heightened risk environment and bearish momentum, defensive postures make sense until this negative trend shows clear signs of stabilization. Markets are reacting sharply to headlines, making float strategies particularly risky in the current environment. Today's Events Building Permits (Jan): 1.376M vs 1.41M forecast, 1.455M previous Continued Claims (Feb 28): 1,850K vs 1,850K forecast, 1,868K previous Housing Starts (Jan): 1.487M vs 1.35M forecast, 1.404M previous Jobless Claims (Mar 7): 213K vs 215K forecast, 213K previous Trade Gap (Jan): -$54.50B vs -$66.6B forecast, -$70.3B previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.18 | -0.09 | | 5.5 | 100.82 | -0.06 | | 5.0 | 99.71 | -0.06 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.67 | 99.676 | 0.019 | | 3 yr | 3.69 | 99.465 | 0.013 | | 5 yr | 3.818 | 99.692 | 0.013 | | 7 yr | 4.018 | 99.893 | 0.011 | | 10 yr | 4.239 | 98.065 | 0.012 | | 30 yr | 4.886 | 95.92 | 0.003 | Market Data

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