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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/29/26

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September 29, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/29/2026** Mortgage-backed securities (UMBS) experienced a volatile intraday swing today, dropping nearly half a point before recovering moderately after Federal Reserve Governor Williams signaled no urgency for additional rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield crested at 5.29%—touching a critical technical level not seen since 2007—before reversing course in afternoon trading. MBS prices ended the day down roughly 0.01 to 0.03 points depending on coupon, but well off their weakest levels. Markets responded sharply to Williams' dovish comments, with Fed Funds Futures rallying and the entire yield curve (except 30-year bonds) returning to positive territory by close. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of mortgage securities to Fed messaging as quarter-end trading dynamics persist. Economic data released today painted a mixed picture that provided little directional momentum until Fed commentary intervened. Case Shiller home prices rose 2.5% year-over-year (beating the 2.2% forecast), while the FHFA monthly index climbed 0.3% (above the 0.1% expectation). However, consumer confidence slumped to 81.9, well below the 89.2 forecast, and job openings fell to 7.079 million from 7.271 million previously. The weakness in confidence and employment metrics suggests underlying economic softness that could eventually support bond rallies, though today's data alone triggered only modest price responses. Lenders reported negative repricing risk approaching 0.25 points by mid-afternoon as MBS weakness mounted. The morning session proved brutal, with heavy selling between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. that pushed MBS down over an eighth of a point despite falling oil prices offering no support. Bearish momentum combined with quarter-end portfolio adjustments (correlating with stock market weakness) appeared to be the primary driver rather than specific economic or policy catalysts. By 10:05 a.m., the 10-year yield had risen 1.1 basis points to 5.25%, and MBS losses accelerated through early afternoon. The lack of any fundamental justification for the selling—particularly with oil prices declining—suggests technical forces and repositioning dominated price action. Williams' 2:00 p.m. statement that he sees no need for urgency following September's rate hike proved to be the session's turning point, effectively halting the bleeding in fixed-income markets. His comments carried extra weight given his status among Fed speakers and represented a notably more dovish tone than recent messaging from other officials. The short end of the yield curve responded particularly well, with the 2-year yield declining 5.3 basis points, while the 10-year finished just 0.3 basis points higher at 5.236%. By day's close, MBS had recovered roughly three-eighths of a point from their lows, though many lenders remained at risk of additional negative reprices depending on their rate sheet timing. **Locking vs Floating** Originators should continue holding the lock/float stance unchanged from Monday, waiting for bonds to demonstrate genuine rally strength that is not merely a rebound from heavy selling. If upcoming economic data comes in weak and bonds recover sustainably, mortgage rates could see substantial relief; conversely, stronger data would likely add to recent upward momentum. The risk/reward at current levels remains unfavorable for aggressively floating, given the proximity to 2007 technical resistance and persistent quarter-end volatility. **Today's Events** | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |---|---|---|---| | Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jul) | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | | FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% | | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | 81.9 | 89.2 | 89.4 | | USA JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | 7.079M | 7.23M | 7.271M | **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.53 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 98.19 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 95.65 | -0.16 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.874 | 99.766 | -0.053 | | 3 yr | 4.978 | 98.34 | -0.031 | | 5 yr | 5.05 | 99.781 | -0.019 | | 7 yr | 5.142 | 99.172 | -0.007 | | 10 yr | 5.245 | 95.226 | 0.011 | | 30 yr | 5.569 | 93.566 | 0.02 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/29/26

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September 29, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/29/2026** Oil prices are easing and Treasury yields are retreating slightly, giving mortgage professionals a moment of relief after a brutal week of selling pressure. The 10-year yield dropped to 5.213 percent this morning, down 2.2 basis points from yesterday's close of 5.237 percent, as Saudi Arabia resumed flows through a critical pipeline. UMBS securities are holding steady with modest gains, while the broader bond market awaits critical economic data later today. Energy-driven inflation remains the primary headwind, but weakening oil suggests markets may finally be catching a breather. This intraday relief could matter for lock-and-float decisions, but the bigger question is whether this bounce has legs or fizzles out by Friday's jobs report. UMBS 30-year coupons posted minimal overnight movement, with the 6.0 coupon at 98.24, up just 0.04 points from yesterday. The 5.5 coupon printed at 95.59, up 0.03, while the 6.5 coupon remained nearly flat at 100.68 with only a 0.02 point increase. GNMA securities performed slightly better, particularly in the 5.5 coupon, which gained 0.08 points to 95.89 compared to UMBS weakness. These modest gains reflect cautious positioning ahead of a data-heavy Tuesday that includes the FHFA Housing Price Index, Case-Shiller Home Prices, and Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m. The market is essentially holding its breath, waiting to see if economic momentum confirms the case for higher-for-longer rates or if cracks finally appear in consumer spending. The credit score battle intensified when Rocket Mortgage announced it will default to VantageScore 4.0 for all GSE-eligible loans starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. After testing 1.4 million credit reports over four months, Rocket found that VantageScore helped more clients qualify and saved borrowers an average of $1,600 at closing. However, this move raises serious operational questions for the broader industry: verification infrastructure must be ready before investor infrastructure can catch up, and smaller lenders dependent on correspondent aggregators may lack the direct GSE delivery capabilities of Rocket or UWM. The concern isn't just competition—it's equity across lender channels. Without widespread correspondent investor participation, VantageScore expansion could widen the competitive moat for large direct lenders rather than democratizing access as regulators intended. The Iran conflict remains a central driver of bond market movement, with geopolitical tensions keeping energy inflation at the forefront of Fed policy discussions. Investors increasingly view elevated oil and diesel prices as sustained inflation risks rather than temporary volatility, knowing that transportation costs will eventually filter into food and core goods. The Treasury selloff reflects a market convinced the U.S. economy remains resilient: 10-year break-even inflation sits at 2.35 percent, suggesting confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting ability. Yet the paradox is sharp—stronger economic data means higher rates, while weaker data could trigger a sharp rally if markets begin pricing in demand destruction from elevated borrowing costs. For mortgage professionals, this catch-22 makes floating riskier but waiting potentially costlier. Employment transitions across the mortgage sector continue, with Informative Research announcing that Tim Cox has returned as executive vice president of business process automation. Cox brings over two decades of mortgage technology and operational strategy experience from previous roles at IR and most recently at Xactus, where he led AI enablement and operational scalability initiatives. Meanwhile, the HELOC market remains volatile and demand-sensitive: home equity nationwide sits at $34.9 trillion with HELOC balances up for 17 straight quarters, yet pipeline activity swings sharply with every rate move. Lenders responding to this volatility are shifting toward fully automated fulfillment where possible, expert-managed where necessary, and flexible capacity that adapts to rate environment changes. The trend signals that mortgage professionals who can operationalize rapid scaling will win regardless of whether rates spike or stabilize. A crowded Tuesday economic calendar will test market resolve as the day unfolds with FHFA Housing Price Index, Case-Shiller data, Consumer Confidence, August JOLTS, and remarks from Fed Governors Bowman, Barr, and Waller all hitting between 9 a.m. and afternoon sessions. This concentration of data and Fed speak creates genuine risk for intraday whipsaws, making tactical decisions harder than strategic ones. Month-end passive rebalancing flows will overlap with data reactions, potentially exaggerating moves in either direction. The November Presidential election year backdrop adds policy uncertainty to every economic release, particularly around inflation and employment data. Professional mortgage originators should expect volatility and avoid anchoring decisions to this morning's brief Treasury relief. **Locking vs Floating** Wait for confirmation of a genuine bond market rally before adjusting lock-and-float positioning. Market participants continue recommending caution until economic data or Fed guidance provides clearer directional conviction. A strong economic report would likely add to rate pressure, while weak employment data could unlock a substantial mortgage rate rally if combined with bond market recovery. The issue remains asymmetric: data could accelerate either direction, making early positioning bets risky. **Today's Events** FHFA Housing Price Index (July) S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July) Conference Board Consumer Confidence (September) August JOLTS Job Openings Federal Reserve speakers: Governor Michelle Bowman, Governor Austan Barr, Governor Christopher Waller **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.59 | 0.03 | | 6.0 | 98.24 | 0.04 | | 5.5 | 95.89 | 0.08 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/28/26

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September 28, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/28/2026** Bond weakness accelerated Monday as Treasury yields jumped to 19-year highs on geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. The 10-year yield climbed 7.6 basis points to 5.24%, with the benchmark 30-year bond rising to 5.55%, the highest level since 2004. UMBS 6.0 prices dropped 0.64 points while GNMA securities tracked similarly, signaling broader weakness across mortgage-backed securities amid elevated oil prices and concerns about prolonged Middle East conflict. Major banks are rolling out incentives to compete for borrowers as mortgage activity slows and affordability stretches beyond reach. Chase launched a limited-time rate sale offering up to 25 basis points off through October 4, while Bank of America is offering grants up to $17,500 toward down payments and closing costs. Wells Fargo is rewarding existing customers with rate discounts based on account balances, and Navy Federal introduced a no-refi rate drop program for members with six on-time payments, signaling industry-wide concern about origination volume. The wholesale channel is contracting as Eleven Mortgage exits its correspondent and wholesale businesses in 60 days, leaving broker loans still in the pipeline. Benchmark Mortgage announced aggressive lock policy changes including a flat 100 basis point extension fee versus the former 2 basis point daily rate. This marks another casualty in a consolidating industry where wholesale platforms continue to wind down operations amid rising capital pressures and reduced profitability in the current rate environment. UWM is raising at least $400 million through a rights offering as the wholesale giant pushes ahead with broker growth and capital restructuring. Oaktree Capital and the Ishbia family are backstopping the 200 million-share offering, reinforcing investor commitment to the channel's expansion despite industry headwinds. The move signals confidence in wholesale mortgage banking but comes amid broader market uncertainty and competitive pressures from both retail and correspondent channels. Mortgage industry practices around producer compensation reveal the "Moneyball problem" of measuring the wrong metrics when evaluating LO value. Volume-based rankings obscure true profitability, as $100 million in production from one originator may generate vastly different economics than the same volume from another depending on required support, pricing concessions, and pull-through rates. Stratmor argues lenders should track contribution dollars at the loan, LO, and branch level to understand actual profitability rather than relying solely on production volume comparisons. NFM Lending confirmed unauthorized access to customer data after a ransomware group claimed it stole 2.5 terabytes of information including Social Security numbers and financial accounts around September 7. A proposed class action lawsuit was filed September 16 in Maryland federal court, alleging the company failed to notify affected customers in a timely manner. The breach illustrates escalating cybersecurity risks in the mortgage industry and the critical importance of rapid incident response and customer notification protocols. **Locking vs Floating** Investors should continue waiting for stronger bond market signals before adjusting lock-and-float strategies. While weak economic data could trigger rate recovery, stronger data will likely push yields higher, adding to recent upward momentum. Until bonds demonstrate genuine rally conviction independent of forced selling, cautious positioning remains prudent given the conflicting technical signals and macro uncertainty. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.5 | 95.81 | -0.8 | | 6.0 | 98.37 | -0.64 | | 6.5 | 100.43 | -0.61 | **US Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 4.926 | 99.668 | 0.067 | | 3 yr | 5.012 | 98.247 | 0.073 | | 5 yr | 5.072 | 99.688 | 0.079 | | 7 yr | 5.151 | 99.121 | 0.076 | | 10 yr | 5.24 | 95.262 | 0.076 | | 30 yr | 5.549 | 93.833 | 0.06 | Stay current on mortgage markets and industry strategy—subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com. Market Data

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