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Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/07/26

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May 7, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/07/2026 War-related headlines triggered a complete intraday reversal, sending mortgage-backed securities (UMBS) down 25 basis points by 3 PM as Iran rejected a U.S. Hormuz framework and tensions escalated across the region. The 10-year Treasury climbed 4.3 basis points to 4.39%, erasing the overnight rally that had briefly lifted spirits on hopeful headlines. MBS pricing deteriorated throughout the session, with UMBS 5.0 closing near 98.57, leaving originators without meaningful gains despite favorable early conditions. Challenger job cuts came in at 83,387 for April versus no forecast, while continued claims fell to 1,766,000 against expectations of 1,800,000. Unit labor costs declined to 2.3% (QoQ final Q1) versus a 2.6% estimate, suggesting wage pressure may be easing. These mixed signals keep Friday's jobs report in focus, though today's market gyrations suggest geopolitical headlines are currently the dominant driver of mortgage pricing. Better Loans is quietly reshaping the competitive landscape—half of its production now flows through Tinman AI partnerships, cutting operations labor costs per funded loan from $1,268 to just $719 in one year. Contribution margin per loan surged to $2,296 from $500, proving that platform distribution and AI-assisted originations are replacing the old "more bodies equals more volume" playbook. Originators should monitor how embedded lending, HELOC strategies, and partnership-based sourcing are becoming industry standard. Loan Factory partnered with Pylon Lending to integrate AI-powered mortgage infrastructure directly into its proprietary Tera platform, automating originations and pricing to bypass traditional wholesale friction. Brokers First Funding unveiled a rebrand with aggressive non-QM purchase pricing at California Mortgage Expo. Union Home Mortgage hired former Newrez CIO Dino Lack, signaling another wave of tech-focused leadership hires across the industry. The mortgage profession faces shifting regulatory ground as the CFPB's 2026 ECOA update removes disparate impact liability protections—but lenders still carry substantial legal and compliance risk. This changes how pricing models, compensation structures, and underwriting workflows must be designed and documented. Compliance teams should review current practices now to avoid downstream liability exposure as enforcement priorities evolve. Technical support in the 10-year remains crucial given four failed attempts to break below 4.34% in the past eight trading days, establishing a meaningful ceiling at 4.40% and a solid floor near 4.05%. Tomorrow's jobs report introduces headline risk heading into the weekend, so pricing windows will likely narrow and volatility will persist. Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to stay ahead of daily mortgage market moves and strategic insights for your business. **Locking vs Floating** Intraday volatility centered on war-related headlines makes traditional lock/float strategy difficult to execute, since there is no reliable way to predict whether the next news cycle will help or hurt mortgage valuations. Market sensitivity to geopolitical events is so acute that price action swings are driven more by external shocks than by economic fundamentals or technical levels. Most prudent originators are trading the established range (4.05% to 4.40% in 10-year yields) rather than making directional bets until post-jobs-report clarity emerges. **Today's Events** Challenger Layoffs (Apr): 83,387 vs. no forecast; previous 60,620 Continued Claims (Apr/25): 1,766,000 vs. 1,800,000 forecast; previous 1,785,000 Jobless Claims (May/02): 200,000 vs. 205,000 forecast; previous 189,000 Unit Labor Costs QoQ Final Q1: 2.3% vs. 2.6% forecast; previous 4.4% **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.57 | -0.25 | | 5.5 | 100.54 | -0.18 | | 6.0 | 102.07 | -0.05 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.23 | -0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.73 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 101.85 | -0.05 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/07/26

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May 7, 2026

WTMS Mortgage Today Blog (AM) - 05/07/26 Peace negotiations drove bond gains today, not just rate momentum alone. The MBA Purchase Index fell to 171.1 from 177.7 previously, signaling weakening buyer demand despite lower borrowing costs. Refinance activity also declined sharply, with the Refi Index dropping to 928.6 from 977.9, suggesting existing homeowners are holding tight through uncertain market conditions. ADP employment came in hotter than forecast at 109K jobs versus 99K expected, creating crosscurrents that keep traders guessing. For originators, this volatility reminds us that geopolitical headlines now move markets faster than traditional data releases. The bond market clearly has more room to rally once peace is officially declared, meaning your best opportunities may still be ahead. Yesterday's modest rate drop benefited risk takers, but today's sharper moves confirm that peace sentiment—not just economic data—is the primary market driver. Mortgage sellers should lock in favorable pricing now because sustained calm around conflict could trigger a significant rally that reshapes rate floors. UMBS securities firmed across all coupons, with the 5.0 coupon gaining 13 basis points intraday to 98.94. GNMA also strengthened, demonstrating that agency MBS investors are rotating into higher-quality collateral ahead of a potential rate drop. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.8 basis points to 4.33 percent, confirming the rally was real and broad-based across the curve. Shorter-duration securities posted larger moves, with 2-year yields down 2.6 basis points and 5-year yields down 3.0 basis points. This steepening dynamic is typical during peace-driven rallies because investors frontload their buying into near-term maturity. Longer-dated bonds like the 30-year held their own, declining only 1.0 basis point despite significant equity market strength. The intraday Treasury action supports the thesis that bond traders expect structural rate improvement rather than a temporary relief bounce. Pre-market gains stuck around all day without any dramatic reversal, a sign of genuine buyer commitment rather than short-covering. Origination volumes remain challenged by the weak MBA Purchase Index, meaning rate competitiveness is paramount for loan officers fighting for market share. Refinance origination is drying up as borrowers with rates below 4.5 percent see no reason to move. The Mortgage Market Index itself fell to 285.3 from 298.5, reflecting both weaker purchases and lighter refi activity across the industry. For wholesale and correspondent lenders, this week's challenge is converting reduced volume into higher margins per loan through disciplined pricing. --- **Locking vs Floating** Mortgage borrowers face a decision between certainty and opportunity. Locking rates now guarantees protection against any unexpected rallies in bond prices, which would narrow margins and raise your cost of funds on new business. However, floating presents asymmetric upside if peace officially materializes—rate ceilings on the 10-year suggest meaningful room for improvement once headlines improve. The volatility surrounding geopolitical risk creates genuine two-way pricing risk that many borrowers are unprepared to manage. Your recommendation should reflect client risk tolerance and loan-to-value position. --- **Today's Events** MBA Purchase Index (May 1): 171.1 vs. 177.7 previous MBA Refi Index (May 1): 928.6 vs. 977.9 previous Mortgage Market Index (May 1): 285.3 vs. 298.5 previous ADP Employment (April): 109K vs. 99K forecast, 62K previous --- **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **UMBS 30 Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.0 | 98.94 | 0.13 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | 0.06 | | 6.0 | 102.2 | 0.03 | **GNMA 30 Year** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.0 | 99.47 | 0.1 | | 5.5 | 100.94 | 0.05 | | 6.0 | 101.9 | -0.04 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 3.843 | 100.062 | -0.026 | | 3 yr | 3.867 | 98.969 | -0.023 | | 5 yr | 3.97 | 99.573 | -0.03 | | 7 yr | 4.147 | 100.62 | -0.026 | | 10 yr | 4.33 | 98.354 | -0.017 | | 30 yr | 4.926 | 97.255 | -0.01 | --- Subscribe free to WTMS Blog Today at WellThatMakesSense.com and never miss the next update on what moves mortgage markets.

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/06/26

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May 7, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/06/2026 Peace deal optimism drove bond markets higher today as oil prices collapsed on hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement, creating tailwinds for MBS and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield fell 7.7 basis points to 4.348%, while UMBS 5.0 coupons rallied half a point as diplomatic progress overshadowed stronger-than-expected employment data. Markets remain vulnerable to war-related headlines, but traders are pricing in additional gains if an official deal is achieved. MBA mortgage indices all declined meaningfully on May 1st, with purchase activity down to 171.1 from 177.7 previously and refinance demand sliding to 928.6 from 977.9. The broader Mortgage Market Index fell to 285.3 versus 298.5 last month, signaling persistent weakness in originations even as rates improved. These declining volumes suggest borrowers remain cautious despite today's market bounce. ADP employment data beat expectations with 109,000 jobs added in April, above the 99,000 forecast but a significant recovery from March's 62,000. This stronger labor report normally would pressure bonds, yet the geopolitical peace narrative dominated today's trading dynamics. Originators should watch how this employment strength evolves heading into Friday's official jobs report, which could reverse some of today's gains. Two Harbors acquisition dynamics intensified as UWM's Mat Ishbia made his case directly to shareholders with just 13 days before the vote. Ishbia acknowledged he no longer sees value in Two Harbors' management but still views their servicer's book and pristine mortgage portfolio as valuable strategic assets. His aggressive tone and criticism of the board's process signals this deal battle is far from over, despite multiple bid rejections. UWM's first-quarter results delivered $44.9 billion in originations with a return to profitability, powered by strong refinance activity and broker channel momentum. The company's AI investments appear to be gaining traction across technology systems designed to identify refinancing opportunities within existing borrower databases. UWM's performance underscores an execution gap in the industry—not all firms are capturing available refi volume at the same pace. **Locking vs Floating** Peace deal rumors sparked a sharp overnight rally that pushed 10-year yields down 7.7 basis points by market close. While these gains are substantial, the move itself wasn't driven by fundamental economic improvement but rather by geopolitical risk reduction and energy price relief. Risk-takers who had positioned for exactly this scenario benefited, but the bond market still has room for improvement if an official agreement is reached, suggesting additional upside remains if headlines continue improving. **Today's Events** MBA Purchase Index (May 1): 171.1 versus 177.7 prior MBA Refi Index (May 1): 928.6 versus 977.9 prior Mortgage Market Index (May 1): 285.3 versus 298.5 prior ADP Employment (April): 109,000 versus 99,000 forecast, 62,000 prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 3.86 | 100.028 | -0.083 | | 3yr | 3.89 | 98.906 | -0.082 | | 5yr | 3.996 | 99.458 | -0.085 | | 7yr | 4.169 | 100.49 | -0.084 | | 10yr | 4.347 | 98.216 | -0.078 | | 30yr | 4.936 | 97.1 | -0.055 | Market Data

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