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Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/13/26

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October 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/12/2026** The mortgage industry converges on Chicago this week as 2,539 attendees gather for MBA Annual amid a landscape of rising rates, declining origination volumes, and mounting economic uncertainty. Fannie Mae speeds fell to 6.7 CPR in September—the slowest pace since April 2025—while Ginnie Mae slowed to 7.6 CPR, leaving only 0.5% of mortgages economically attractive to refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects total single-family origination volume to decline 5% to just under $2 trillion in 2027, with purchase originations forecast to grow only 0.8% while refinance originations plummet 17% to $571 billion. Mortgage rates climbed to 7.40% last week as the primary-secondary spread widened to 92 basis points, reflecting intensifying pressure on gain-on-sale margins. Credit trends show sub-700 FICO loans at 11.4% of 2026 UMBS issuance, the highest share since 2023, signaling potential expansion of borrower access through alternative scoring models like VantageScore 4.0. VantageScore 4.0's gradual adoption across Agency channels raises critical questions about credit discipline and pool performance as lenders navigate the shift from tri-merge to alternative scoring standards. Consumer Data Industry Association research shows the tri-merge credit report costs homebuyers roughly $151, or about 1% of average closing costs, yet the potential savings from moving away from the standard could be marginal compared to long-term impacts on underwriting rigor. MBS and Treasury markets staged a modest recovery at week's end after sustained selling pushed yields to fresh 2026 highs, with strong demand at longer-dated Treasury auctions suggesting some stabilization in investor appetite. However, persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and elevated fiscal pressure continue to weigh on bond valuations, and any rally appears opportunistic rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Inflation data and Treasury supply remain critical drivers this week, with CPI and PPI releases potentially determining whether yields consolidate or resume their upward trajectory. The MBA ratcheted down 2027 origination projections as higher rates and volume pressures squeeze lender profitability and force cost-structure realignment across the independent mortgage banking space. Wire fraud risks remain acute, with FundingShield's Q3 2026 report showing 45.9% of transactions across a $108.7 billion monitored portfolio carried material wire and title-related risks, averaging 2.2 issues per problematic transaction. Technology spend continues to accelerate at MBA Annual, with AI automation, appraisal platform modernization for UAD 3.6, and fulfillment tools dominating exhibit-floor conversations as lenders prioritize operational efficiency. Conference attendance reveals meaningful churn in industry delegation size, with ICE shrinking from 129 attendees in 2024 to 65 this year, while JPMorgan Chase expanded to 69 from 43, reflecting consolidation and shifting vendor strategies. Registration data shows 1,064 first-time attendees at Chicago versus 809 individuals appearing on all three recent MBA Annual lists, signaling substantial turnover in industry leadership and decision-making authority. **Locking vs Floating** The Friday before a three-day weekend typically sees lighter volume and tactical profit-taking from traders who held long positions during the mid-week bond recovery. While Friday's modest rally near session highs provides some encouragement, the move lacks conviction and depends heavily on next week's inflation data to determine whether the recovery continues or selling resumes. **Today's Events** University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) expected at 10:00 AM ET on Friday, October 9; Boston Federal Reserve President Collins delivers remarks. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/13/26

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October 13, 2026

Now I'll get today's date in MM/DD/YYYY format and proceed. The current date is October 12, 2026 (20:55 PM EDT Monday). **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/12/2026** MBA Annual 2026 opened in Chicago this weekend with the mortgage industry contending with rising rates, softening origination volumes, volatile bond markets, and mounting uncertainty about Fed policy and the economy. The contrast between booming technology valuations and a struggling housing market reveals a deeply uneven recovery, with the Magnificent Seven tech stocks now commanding 77 percent of U.S. GDP while mortgage originators face thinning margins and lower purchase activity. September funded volume fell 15 percent year-over-year and applications declined 4.2 percent week-over-week, signaling persistent affordability pressures that neither attractive rates nor workplace strength can overcome. The mortgage industry saw significant leadership movement and consolidation this week. JPMorgan Chase is sending its largest delegation to MBA Annual since 2024, with 69 registered attendees, while Optimal Blue, Bayview, and several other vendors pulled back sharply from prior years, suggesting selective market participation and potential budget constraints. Meanwhile, new entrants like VantageScore appeared with 16 representatives for the first time, reflecting the intensifying credit-scoring debate that could reshape how lenders evaluate borrower risk and manage pool pricing. Prepayment speeds continue to decelerate sharply as mortgage rates climbed above 7.28 percent by early October. Fannie Mae speeds fell 7 percent month-over-month to 6.7 CPR while Ginnie Mae speeds declined 10 percent to 7.6 CPR, leaving only 0.5 percent of outstanding mortgages economically attractive to refinance. Servicer-level data reveals meaningful differences in borrower behavior, with Rocket/Quicken and AmeriHome leading the fastest-payer universe while Idaho HFA has remained among the slowest for 14 consecutive months. The MBA forecast for 2027 projects total single-family origination volume will decrease 5 percent to just under $2 trillion from the $2.1 trillion expected in 2026. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 0.8 percent to $1.42 trillion while refinance originations are expected to plummet 17 percent to $571 billion, reflecting the persistent headwinds from elevated rates and narrow refinance opportunities. By loan count, total mortgage originations are expected to decline 5.6 percent to 5.0 million loans in 2027. Bond markets recovered modestly on Friday after sustained selling pushed 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields to fresh 2026 highs earlier in the week. Strong demand at longer-dated Treasury auctions and three consecutive intraday rebounds suggest selling momentum may be moderating, though the rally remains more opportunistic than a confirmed reversal. Persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal concerns, and a hawkish Federal Reserve continue to pressure bond prices lower, with the market now assigning below-20-percent probability to an October rate hike despite Fed minutes signaling broad support for restrictive policy. The credit scoring modernization through VantageScore 4.0 and UAD 3.6 appraisal standards are reshaping mortgage operations and risk management practices. Pennymac has already implemented VantageScore 4.0 across all three production channels, though lenders worry that favoring models producing more favorable borrower results could weaken underwriting discipline over time. These systemic changes, combined with higher loan volumes carrying sub-700 FICO scores, require close investor monitoring of credit performance as the industry adapts to a modernized underwriting landscape. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds faced intraday weakness this Friday before the three-day weekend but recovered most losses by close. While the market is not committing to a major reversal just yet, data-dependent positioning suggests traders are cautious ahead of next week's inflation releases. Watch technical levels at 5.27 percent in the 10-year for potential support, understanding that any near-term rally remains modest and opportunistic rather than the start of a sustained correction. **Today's Events** 10:00 AM — October Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary, University of Michigan) Boston Fed President Collins remarks scheduled **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/13/26

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October 13, 2026

I appreciate the detailed instructions, but I notice that you haven't provided any source emails with content for me to analyze. The message section shows: **Message:** (empty) To write the WTMS Blog post, I need: - Email content from sources like news@mortgagenuggets.com, communications@optimalblue.com, or rchrisman@robchrisman.com - Links to articles about UMBS/GNMA securities, Treasury bonds, or mortgage market news - Economic data or event information - Lock/Float considerations (if available) **Please provide the source emails** so I can: 1. Fetch relevant article links 2. Extract market data and pricing tables 3. Write the 6-paragraph blog post following all formatting rules Once you share the email content, I'll begin the output with the bold title exactly as specified (no preamble).

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