Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/18/26

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March 18, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/18/2026 Markets are grinding through a sleepy pre-Fed day with modest gains across mortgage-backed securities despite disappointing manufacturing data. UMBS 30-year coupons posted small gains with the 5.5 coupon up 9 basis points, while GNMA securities showed even stronger performance with the 5.0 coupon climbing 24 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield held relatively steady at 4.197%, down just 2 basis points intraday, as traders position defensively ahead of this afternoon's Federal Reserve announcement. Refinance demand collapsed last week, plunging 19% overall and 27% for conventional refinances as the 30-year fixed rate spiked to 6.30% from 6.19% the prior week. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict drove oil prices higher and rattled Treasury markets, pushing rates to their highest levels in weeks. Purchase applications managed a modest 1% gain and remain 12% above last year's levels, offering a sliver of optimism as the spring buying season approaches. Rates have edged slightly lower to start this week, but volatility remains elevated with all eyes on Fed Chair Powell's commentary later today. The NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -0.2 versus a forecast of 3.2 and well below the prior reading of 7.1, signaling continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. This disappointing data initially provided modest support for bonds, though the market remains hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the Fed meeting. While no rate cut is expected today, Powell's tone regarding inflation concerns and the geopolitical risk premium could determine whether recent rate weakness continues or if we see renewed pressure. The manufacturing decline adds to concerns about tariff impacts on materials costs and supply chain disruptions affecting homebuilders. A federal judge delivered a significant ruling for mortgage originators who rely on CFPB data and oversight, ordering the agency to continue drawing funding from the Federal Reserve. Acting director Russell Vought had attempted to effectively shutter the agency by arguing it couldn't receive funding unless the Fed was profitable, a move the judge called "arbitrary, capricious and in violation of law." Three nonprofits sued after the funding cutoff threatened to eliminate critical lending data used to track fair lending practices and compliance metrics that many lenders depend on for regulatory monitoring. Homebuilder sentiment inched up one point to 38 in March but remains below the critical 50 break-even threshold for the 23rd consecutive month, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges. Nearly two-thirds of builders continue offering sales incentives while 37% are cutting prices with average discounts holding at 6%, creating potential opportunities for purchase loan volume. Tariffs on materials and appliances are squeezing builder margins while immigration enforcement at construction sites has thinned the available labor pool, driving up costs. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that down-payment hurdles and uncertainty from the Iran conflict will act as headwinds, though recent executive orders aimed at reducing regulatory burdens could eventually help increase attainable housing supply. NAR reported pending home sales rose 1.8% in February, offering another modestly positive data point for purchase mortgage volume heading into spring. Meanwhile, Freedom Mortgage's parent company struck a deal to acquire Seneca Mortgage Servicing, expanding their MSR platform as servicing rights continue to attract investor interest in a high-rate environment. On the real estate side, Zillow launched "Zillow Preview," allowing brokerages to share listings publicly before they hit the MLS through a direct entry system that bypasses traditional MLS workflows, potentially changing how quickly purchase opportunities reach borrowers. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with the entire month of March proving bearish for rates. Market participants should maintain a defensive posture until the bearish trend clearly levels off, which will require more than two positive days given the false hope created by brief rallies on March 6th and 9th. With the Fed announcement looming this afternoon and rate momentum still negative, locking makes sense for loans closing within the next 15-30 days. Today's Events - NY Fed Manufacturing Index: -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous - 2:00 PM: FOMC Rate Decision (no change expected) - 2:30 PM: Fed Chair Powell Press Conference Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.44 | 0.06 | | 5.0 | 99.41 | 0.03 | | 5.5 | 101.03 | 0.09 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.39 | 0.1 | | 5.0 | 99.67 | 0.24 | | 5.5 | 100.83 | 0.19 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.695 | 99.627 | 0.02 | | 3 yr | 3.693 | 99.456 | 0.016 | | 5 yr | 3.793 | 99.805 | -0.001 | | 7 yr | 3.98 | 100.121 | -0.001 | | 10 yr | 4.197 | 98.405 | -0.002 | | 30 yr | 4.834 | 96.713 | -0.009 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this analysis in your inbox daily. Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/17/26

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March 17, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/17/2026 Mortgage pricing improved modestly Tuesday despite geopolitical turmoil continuing in the Middle East, offering a rare bright spot in what has been a difficult March for rates. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below the key 4.20% level to settle at 4.199%, while UMBS 5.0 coupons gained 10 basis points. This marks the second consecutive day of improvement, the first time bonds have closed stronger for two straight sessions since late February. Oil prices climbed above $101 per barrel as Iran renewed attacks on UAE energy infrastructure, yet bonds rallied anyway, breaking the recent pattern where rates moved in lockstep with crude. Brent crude has surged more than 40% since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began three weeks ago, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed and disrupting roughly 20% of global oil flows. The disconnect between rising oil and falling yields today suggests markets may be pricing in either a swift resolution or accepting that central banks will look through this supply shock. The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting Tuesday with no rate change expected, but all eyes are on Wednesday's updated economic projections and the so-called "dot plot" of future rate expectations. Markets currently price in just one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, down from expectations of two cuts before the Iran conflict erupted. Australia's central bank kicked off a historic week of central bank meetings by raising rates 25 basis points to 4.1%, citing material inflation risks from the oil shock. Housing data provided a mixed signal as pending home sales unexpectedly rose 1.8% in February, fueled by the brief dip in mortgage rates early in the year when rates touched 6.1%. However, that improvement is already fading as rates have climbed back above 6.2% amid the geopolitical crisis. The National Association of Realtors warned that further gains are likely limited if oil prices continue pushing mortgage rates higher. A Reuters survey of housing analysts painted a sobering picture for the next two years, forecasting home prices will rise just 1.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 as the market remains constrained by high mortgage rates and housing shortages. The survey estimated the U.S. needs 2.5 million additional homes to meet current demand, with nearly 80% of respondents saying it would take more than five years to close that gap. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, warned that mortgage rates could hit 7.0% if the Iran conflict persists. On the servicing front, Freedom Mortgage announced a definitive agreement to acquire Seneca Mortgage Servicing and its mortgage servicing rights portfolio from EJF Capital. The transaction aims to enhance operational efficiency and create new opportunities for outside investors in mortgage loan assets. Meanwhile, physician mortgages are gaining traction in the prime private-label RMBS market, according to a new KBRA report, creating opportunities for originators who understand how to work with medical professionals and their nontraditional income profiles. In regulatory news, a federal judge dismissed criminal subpoenas targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ruling they were intended to pressure him to lower interest rates. The decision reinforces legal protections for Fed independence, though it underscores how central bank autonomy is increasingly being defended in courts rather than through longstanding political norms. Two Harbors Investment Corp. adjourned its special shareholder meeting and delayed a key vote on its proposed acquisition by UWM Holdings as it seeks additional shareholder support. Economic data showed weakness as ADP's weekly employment report revealed its biggest drop in months, with private payrolls increasing just 9,000 per week versus the 14,750 revised figure. New York Fed manufacturing came in at -0.2 versus a 3.2 forecast and 7.1 prior reading. Treasury auctions continue this week with $13 billion in 20-year bonds Tuesday afternoon, followed by key data Wednesday including the FOMC decision, Powell's press conference, and PPI figures. Locking vs Floating Volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing Iran conflict making rate movements unpredictable. March has been uniformly bearish for rates, and despite two consecutive days of modest improvement, it's premature to call this a trend reversal. Exercise caution with floating strategies until the bearish streak has clearly leveled off, which will require more than just two positive sessions to confirm. Remember that false hope emerged on March 6th and 9th before rates resumed their climb higher. Today's Events - NY Fed Manufacturing: -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous - ADP Employment Change Weekly: 9k vs 15.5k expected - Pending Home Sales: +1.8% vs -0.5% forecast - 20-Year Treasury Auction: $13 billion Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.38 | 0.1 | | 5.5 | 100.94 | 0.06 | | 5.0 | 99.58 | -0.18 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.675 | 99.666 | -0.003 | | 3 yr | 3.678 | 99.499 | -0.004 | | 5 yr | 3.794 | 99.8 | -0.005 | | 7 yr | 3.981 | 100.113 | -0.016 | | 10 yr | 4.199 | 98.385 | -0.023 | | 30 yr | 4.842 | 96.582 | -0.027 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/17/26

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March 17, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/17/2026 Oil prices are driving today's bond market rally as crude hovers near $100 per barrel amid ongoing Iran tensions. Treasury yields dropped across the curve with the 10-year falling to 4.21%, down from yesterday's close of 4.22%. MBS prices gained strength overnight, with UMBS 5.0 coupon up 9 basis points after initially opening weaker. The correlation between oil and bonds remains remarkably straightforward today. Geopolitical risk tied to Iran continues as the dominant macro driver, overshadowing economic data entirely. While some tankers are navigating the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. is working with allies to safeguard shipping lanes, investors remain defensive. This uncertainty is providing unexpected support for mortgage-backed securities. Economic data painted a weaker picture this morning with NY Fed manufacturing at -0.2 versus the 3.2 forecast and 7.1 prior reading. Manufacturing sentiment weakened sharply while services business activity in the NY Fed district improved slightly to -22.6 from -25.7 last month. These softer numbers aren't moving markets much as traders focus squarely on energy prices and inflation concerns. Housing builder confidence improved modestly according to the NAHB Housing Market Index, but affordability remains severely constrained with over a third of builders cutting prices. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC meeting today, though expectations are for a non-event. Policymakers are expected to maintain their cautious wait-and-see stance as they assess whether the oil-driven inflation scare could morph into a broader growth concern. Chair Powell's statement and press conference tomorrow afternoon will be closely watched. The NAR's pending home sales index for February is expected at -0.5% month-over-month, but won't significantly impact rate movements. Mortgage-backed securities are navigating choppy waters with 30-year Ginnie Mae pools underperforming in this volatile environment. Shorter-duration Fannie Mae 15 and 20-year securities are holding up better as investors favor capital preservation strategies. The 2s/10s Treasury spread remains near recent extremes at around 55 basis points while volatility has surged since the Middle East escalation. Housing affordability has reached historically challenging levels as high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and rising living costs continue pricing out average buyers. The Trump administration is reportedly pushing measures to expand mortgage credit through community banks and reduce regulatory barriers to housing development. These efforts aim to boost supply and credit availability, though follow-through remains uncertain. For mortgage originators, the immediate concern is managing client expectations in this environment where geopolitical events can shift pricing rapidly within a single day. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains significantly elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty with Iran. March has been entirely bearish for rates so far, making a defensive posture prudent for deals closing within the next 30 days. It will take more than two positive days to verify that the bearish trend has truly leveled off, as false hope emerged briefly on March 6th and 9th before reversing. Monitor oil prices closely as they continue driving bond market direction. Today's Events - NY Fed Manufacturing: -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous - NAR Pending Home Sales Index (February): Expected -0.5% month-over-month - Treasury auction: $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds - FOMC meeting begins (statement and Powell press conference tomorrow) Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.37 | 0.12 | | 5.0 | 99.37 | 0.09 | | 5.5 | 100.98 | 0.1 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 4.5 | 97.35 | 0.03 | | 5.0 | 99.58 | -0.19 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | -0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.672 | 99.672 | -0.006 | | 3 yr | 3.674 | 99.511 | -0.008 | | 5 yr | 3.786 | 99.84 | -0.014 | | 7 yr | 3.983 | 100.105 | -0.01 | | 10 yr | 4.207 | 98.323 | -0.013 | | 30 yr | 4.856 | 96.366 | -0.011 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily. Market Data

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