Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/24/26

{{catlist}}
March 24, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/24/2026 Mortgage markets are proving the cynics right as the Iran ceasefire rebound has already died. UMBS 5.0 prices dropped to 98.03, down 36 basis points from yesterday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.406%, completely erasing Monday morning's gains despite oil prices remaining lower. Labor costs came in much worse than expected at 4.4% versus the 3.5% forecast. This inflationary data is pushing investors toward the Federal Reserve potentially raising rates rather than cutting them. Futures markets now see nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by October. President Trump's signals about productive talks with Iran lost their market impact after Iran denied substantive discussions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Persian Gulf allies may join the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Tehran. Markets remain on "hyper alert" for the next geopolitical development. Construction spending disappointed at -0.2% versus the 0.1% forecast. This economic weakness contrasts sharply with the stubborn inflation readings from labor costs. The mixed signals are creating the choppy trading conditions we're seeing across bond markets today. Locking vs Floating Today's market action demonstrates extreme volatility tied to war developments and inflation concerns. Bonds showed proof of concept that Iran de-escalation can drive gains, but those moves reversed quickly. Analysts recommend remaining cautious and defensive until a clear trend of de-escalation emerges with sustained bond market response. Today's Events - Construction Spending: -0.2% vs 0.1% forecast - Labor Costs: 4.4% vs 3.5% forecast - ADP Employment Change: 4-week average increases to 10K - New Home Sales data expected Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.03 | -0.36 | | 5.5 | 100 | -0.23 | | 6.0 | 101.68 | -0.08 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.53 | -0.28 | | 5.5 | 100.17 | -0.15 | | 6.0 | 101.45 | -0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.904 | 99.231 | 0.052 | | 5 yr | 4.027 | 98.755 | 0.056 | | 10 yr | 4.406 | 96.748 | 0.059 | | 30 yr | 4.966 | 94.717 | 0.045 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily.

📺 Video Summary

▶️ Watch the Video Summary

Video link: https://files2.heygen.ai/aws_pacific/avatar_tmp/7574fb16619144c9ba5f1680f32533ba/0c17c8e213b14b978234b7baf709bc1c.mp4?Expires=1774965669&Signature=NyucbAPC1k~WWHu9ec0RlDtoO8Wwm8bnBJ-tYvyJuX0HteHqHms6e5uspjlBc7yPdfycRtsBzPRtREHhdjvDolCUTv8ApFUXuf2-WZlwmMC73cuOhieD~ydHSX8es-pVXULmJoKGvPICjfBulzxXF6PDxvLGYbgn8qsYkj14STR28v4TFsOUBMHTRqyFcMik7btxoRuLQfWtnFvIIiMvjlbvx4KtqVMqoGFg-oxBp~rnK68BcMEKmzbNveDyH4IeBwLNzyo8792gKR8h0L4sVt4gr2nqKBGR3T4PKKYL76hChjdjmj3lA2yjvrAduFdN0MqguXTVC4M-W75jn5rHxQ__&Key-Pair-Id=K38HBHX5LX3X2H

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/23/26

{{catlist}}
March 23, 2026

--- WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/23/2026 Bond markets whipsawed overnight after President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, citing progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield had surged to 4.443% by 6:45am before plummeting to 4.308% within minutes of the 7:04am announcement, ultimately settling around 4.354%. UMBS 5.0 coupons rallied 24 basis points to 98.39, while GNMA 5.0s gained 15 basis points to 98.72. Oil prices collapsed on the news, though some confusion remains as certain sources report no direct talks occurred with Iran, only intermediary discussions. The dramatic reversal pulled mortgage pricing back from the brink after what had been a brutal overnight session. Repricing Risk and Rate Reality Mortgage rates remain stubbornly elevated around 6.875%, with borrowers now fortunate to find anything near 6.375% after lenders repeatedly raised pricing throughout last week. March has been essentially a one-way trade against bonds with only brief corrective moments, as geopolitical uncertainty and inflation fears dominate market sentiment. The morning's rally offers some relief, but the volatility underscores how quickly conditions can shift based on Middle East developments. Lenders may issue improvement reprices today if current levels hold, though caution remains warranted given the whipsaw nature of recent trading. Fed Rate Hike Odds Climbing Bond traders now assign roughly 50% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike by October, a dramatic shift from earlier expectations of continued cuts. President Trump's decision to engage militarily in the Middle East has convinced markets that inflation pressures will intensify rather than subside, fundamentally altering the policy outlook. Surging inflation expectations have widened TIPS breakeven spreads, reflecting growing concern about persistent price pressures ahead. Even with this morning's geopolitical reprieve, the underlying trajectory suggests rates may stay elevated longer than many anticipated. Softer economic data showing cooling GDP growth and weakening consumer spending could eventually counterbalance these concerns if tensions genuinely de-escalate. Agency Buying Activity Provides Support Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are reportedly placing large orders to buy MBS, providing crucial support to mortgage-backed securities markets during this turbulent period. This buying activity helps explain why MBS spreads haven't blown out even wider despite the recent rate volatility. The GSEs' presence in the market offers some stability for originators trying to price loans amid rapidly changing conditions. However, this institutional support can only do so much against broader macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical shocks. Originators should view this as a helpful backstop rather than a cure-all for current market challenges. Housing Market Fundamentals Weakening Buyer demand has dropped to record lows as elevated rates continue to suppress affordability across most markets. Home prices are declining in the majority of metros, signaling a potential shift toward a more balanced housing market after years of seller dominance. Persistent affordability challenges combined with structurally low housing inventory continue to cap upside potential in residential lending volumes. The industry remains constrained by these fundamental headwinds regardless of short-term rate movements. Any sustained improvement in mortgage rates would be needed to meaningfully revive purchase activity from current depressed levels. Private Credit Stress Building Stress in private credit markets continues to quietly build, with both investors and the Federal Reserve flagging risks tied to lending to weaker borrowers. These concerns previously helped push rates lower and could do so again if geopolitical tensions genuinely ease in coming weeks. The Fed's increased scrutiny of non-bank lending suggests policymakers are monitoring financial stability risks beyond traditional banking channels. Cracks in the economy including slower GDP growth and cooling labor markets may become a bigger focus for policymakers ahead. This week's economic calendar remains relatively light with mostly second-tier data, allowing geopolitical developments and Fed speakers to drive market direction. Locking vs Floating The current environment strongly favors locking rather than floating. Bond markets have traded in a predominantly negative direction throughout March with only brief corrective bounces. While this morning's rally on Middle East news provides temporary relief, attempting to time additional improvements amounts to catching falling knives in a treacherous market. Wait for dust to definitively settle before taking major risks with floating strategies. The only reason to float involves predicting future geopolitical outcomes, which carries substantial downside risk. Today's Events Construction Spending for January at 10:00 AM (Forecast: 0.1%, Prior: 0.3%) Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.39 | 0.24 | | 5.5 | 100.32 | 0.24 | | 6.0 | 101.88 | 0.21 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.72 | 0.15 | | 5.5 | 100.4 | 0.2 | | 6.0 | 101.65 | 0.15 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.867 | 99.301 | -0.038 | | 3 yr | 3.883 | 98.926 | -0.037 | | 5 yr | 3.981 | 98.963 | -0.027 | | 7 yr | 4.171 | 98.971 | -0.027 | | 10 yr | 4.354 | 97.155 | -0.029 | | 30 yr | 4.915 | 95.479 | -0.027 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/06/26

{{catlist}}
March 6, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/06/2026 Oil prices are drowning out what should have been a rally day for mortgage bonds. February nonfarm payrolls crashed to negative 92,000 jobs versus expectations of a 59,000 gain, marking the widest miss in over a year. But instead of bonds rallying sharply as they normally would, UMBS 5.0 coupons are down 18 basis points and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 4 basis points to 4.176 percent. The culprit is crude oil's relentless surge following the complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions are triggering inflation fears that are overpowering weak employment data. When oil spikes this dramatically, markets worry about inflation returning even as the labor market softens. The jobs report showed unemployment ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, which somewhat offset the payroll disaster. Healthcare strikes distorted the February count according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average earnings grew 0.4 percent versus the 0.3 percent forecast, keeping year-over-year wage growth at 3.8 percent. Bonds initially rallied at 8:30 AM when the data hit, with the 10-year dropping to 4.121 percent. By 10:09 AM that rally completely reversed as oil concerns reasserted control. This whipsaw action creates reprice risk for lenders still finalizing morning rate sheets. The 10-year Treasury yield has traveled from 3.93 percent at year-start to a high of 4.31 percent, now settling near 4.18 percent after closing near 3.95 percent just last Friday. That 20-basis-point move in four days is unusually fast and reflects broader market repricing. Options traders are increasingly betting the Fed won't cut rates at all this year. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year rate at 6.00 percent for the week ending March 5, up 2 basis points from the prior week's 5.98 percent low. That 5.98 percent marked the lowest level since September 2022. The 15-year rate fell 1 basis point to 5.43 percent. Better.com is shaking up underwriting with a ChatGPT-powered app that cuts approval times from 21 days to just 47 seconds. The tool automates dozens of underwriting checks and targets rivals like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage. This technology could force the entire industry to accelerate digital transformation or risk losing market share. United Wholesale Mortgage launched temporary pricing incentives including a 75-basis-point discount on eligible refinance loans through March. They're also offering a $600 appraisal credit for eligible purchase loans through April. JPMorgan Chase simultaneously launched a limited-time rate sale through March 8 with personalized discounts that stack with other relationship pricing. Morgan Stanley is cutting 2,500 jobs across divisions including mortgage origination services for wealth clients. The layoffs span 3 percent of their workforce despite reporting $70.6 billion in revenue and $16.9 billion in net income for 2025. Geographic strategy shifts and performance considerations are driving the restructuring. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains much higher than normal due to geopolitical uncertainty and incoming economic data. Recent bond market weakness received minimal support despite today's catastrophic jobs miss. Only the most risk-tolerant clients should consider floating, while everyone else should wait for firmer evidence that the bleeding has stopped before making moves. Today's Events Average earnings for February came in at 0.4 percent versus 0.3 percent forecast. Non Farm Payrolls for February printed at negative 92,000 versus 59,000 forecast. Participation Rate for February dropped to 62.0 percent versus 62.5 percent prior. Retail Sales for January showed negative 0.2 percent versus negative 0.3 percent forecast. Retail Sales Control Group for January grew 0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent forecast. Unemployment rate for February rose to 4.4 percent versus 4.3 percent forecast. Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.63 | -0.18 | | 5.5 | 101.2 | -0.07 | | 5.0 | 99.91 | -0.12 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.567 | 99.872 | -0.017 | | 3 yr | 3.6 | 99.719 | 0.004 | | 5 yr | 3.745 | 100.024 | 0.017 | | 7 yr | 3.951 | 100.298 | 0.027 | | 10 yr | 4.172 | 98.604 | 0.036 | | 30 yr | 4.797 | 97.282 | 0.043 | Market Data

RECENT ARTICLES

Send me some brain food

We will Put More Awesome Stuff
In Your Brain

📺 Video Summary

RECENT ARTICLES

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/24/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/23/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/06/26

Article Archive

Mortgage Today (PM) – 03/05/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/04/26

Mortgage Today (PM) – 03/03/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/03/26

Mortgage Today (PM) – 03/02/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/02/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 02/27/26

Mortgage Today (PM) – 02/26/26

Subscribe

We will Put More Awesome Stuff In Your Brain

📺 Video Summary

RECENT ARTICLES

Article Archive

Subscribe

We will Put More Awesome Stuff
In Your Brain