Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/01/26

{{catlist}}
July 1, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/01/2026** The sell-off that defined Tuesday is holding into Wednesday as mortgage-backed securities decline and Treasury yields rise, signaling investor caution ahead of major economic data and Federal Reserve commentary. MBS prices are down broadly, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.49 percent after closing at 4.42 percent yesterday, extending quarterly weakness as markets price in lingering inflation concerns. A softer-than-expected June ADP jobs report showing just 98,000 private-sector job additions versus forecasts of 113,000 has failed to provide relief, with selling continuing across the curve despite month-end rebalancing pressure. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak today at 9 a.m. alongside European central bank officials in Portugal, and his remarks on price stability could set the tone for rate expectations through year-end. Holiday-shortened trading and lower market participation are keeping volatility elevated, making a defensive positioning strategy prudent until market direction becomes clearer. Geographic disparities and loan size continue to drive uneven mortgage-backed securities performance, as some high-cost coastal markets outperform while Southern and Southwestern regions lag behind. Home price growth has cooled nationally without meaningfully improving affordability, creating a patchwork where borrowers in expensive markets face persistent headwinds while cheaper regions lose momentum. The FHFA index showed a slight monthly decline, yet home values remain stubbornly above levels that would ease mortgage origination demand. This regional divergence means originators in slower-appreciation areas may face tighter margins and lower volume, while those in hot markets could see slightly better pricing. Understanding local market conditions is essential for locking rate risk and managing wholesale pricing. The labor market continues signaling strength despite the ADP disappointment, with private-sector job creation capping the best three-month stretch in more than a year and wage growth for job-changers accelerating to 6.6 percent annually. Tomorrow's official June payroll report is expected to show 115,000 net new jobs, which would mark the strongest six-month hiring streak since mid-2024 and support arguments for potential Federal Reserve rate increases. Job openings remain elevated relative to available workers, particularly in education, health services, and financial sectors, pointing to labor supply constraints rather than broad weakness. These employment trends continue to pressure the Fed's rate-pause narrative, as policymakers must balance improving inflation data with persistent labor strength. Originators should monitor tomorrow's jobs report closely, as an outsized number could reignite rate-hike expectations and trigger bond market selling. Consumer confidence edged higher in June only after a downward revision to May's reading, masking mixed underlying economic momentum that keeps Fed officials uncertain about the inflation trajectory. Business activity moderated while job openings remained stable, suggesting the economy is losing steam without deteriorating sharply—the textbook soft-landing scenario markets currently price. Headline inflation has eased thanks to lower energy prices, but core inflation persists stubbornly, preventing the Fed from declaring victory and moving to rate cuts. The disconnect between cooling goods prices and sticky services inflation means policymakers will require more employment and inflation data before adjusting policy. Originators facing borrower rate-lock decisions should focus on data dependency risk rather than calling a clear directional trend. Mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association were essentially flat for the week ending June 26, with purchase activity rising 1 percent week-over-week and up 3 percent year-ago, while refinance applications fell slightly but remain 9 percent above year-ago levels. This stability in application flow despite modestly higher rates suggests borrower demand remains genuine rather than driven by tactical window-shopping, though seasonal weakness could arrive as we enter summer months. May construction spending and today's June ISM Manufacturing Index will provide additional color on economic momentum heading into the second half. Purchase applications outpacing refinance growth indicates healthy housing demand relative to refi activity, a healthy diversification for origination pipelines. Monitor application trends closely as the busiest summer season approaches and rate volatility potentially increases. Trust and referrals, not artificial intelligence or online search, continue driving borrower lender selection, with less than 2 percent of refinance borrowers and just 4 percent of purchase borrowers finding lenders through online search, reviews, or AI recommendations combined. Instead, nearly 90 percent of borrowers still select lenders through referrals, existing relationships, and prior experience, meaning the fundamental mortgage business remains relationship-driven despite industry hype around technology innovation. This reality underscores why customer experience, operational efficiency, and referral network strength matter far more than AI adoption for capturing market share. Originators chasing cutting-edge technology while neglecting core borrower experience and referral cultivation are misallocating resources and missing growth opportunities. The lesson for mortgage professionals is clear: invest in people, processes, and relationships first; then layer in technology that enhances rather than replaces human connection. **Locking vs Floating** Tuesday's volatility suggests borrowers and originators should maintain a more defensive stance through the end of this shortened week. Higher risk events remain on the calendar—Fed commentary today, tomorrow's jobs report, and weekly economic data—making aggressive rate-lock strategies risky. The combination of technical bounce recovery, lower holiday-week participation, and elevated uncertainty argues for protecting rate risk until clearer directional confirmation emerges. Traders are watching intraday MBS price movements and 10-year yield ceiling and floor levels to gauge broader bond market momentum, with Thursday's payroll data potentially serving as the next major catalyst. **Today's Events** ADP private-sector payrolls (June): 98,000 vs. 113,000 forecast, 122,000 prior Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 9 a.m. ET in Portugal alongside European central bank officials Final June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI May Construction Spending June ISM Manufacturing Index **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.07 | -0.04 | | 5.5 | 100.17 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 102.03 | -0.06 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.38 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 100.34 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.05 | 0.09 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.172 | 99.673 | -0.004 | | 3 yr | 4.184 | 99.835 | 0.002 | | 5 yr | 4.237 | 99.502 | 0.008 | | 7 yr | 4.352 | 99.391 | 0.014 | | 10 yr | 4.483 | 99.14 | 0.017 | | 30 yr | 4.978 | 100.335 | 0.016 |

WTMS Video Summary

▶ Watch Today's Mortgage Market Recap

Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/30/26

{{catlist}}
June 30, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/30/2026** Quarter-end position squaring added only 2 basis points to the 10-year yield this morning, leaving bonds still well below the critical 4.42% technical level. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 6 ticks to 98.58, while GNMA securities declined more sharply across all coupons as the market absorbed modest selling pressure at the open. The economic calendar heats up today with job openings data at 10 a.m. and consumer confidence readings, though only the JOLTS report carries real volatility risk for mortgage pricing. MBS prices remain trapped in a narrow trading range as investors adopt a cautious wait-and-see posture ahead of Thursday's employment report, which will be critical for determining whether the Fed remains hawkish on rate hikes before year-end. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds continue consolidating within a narrow band after successfully breaking below 4.42%, with 4.366% serving as the floor over recent trading days. Tuesday evening carries slightly elevated risk as quarter-end fund rotations could trigger asset shifts from bonds into equities, while Wednesday evening represents high-risk territory given Thursday's jobs report looms. A decisive breakout—either above or below the current range—will depend on the next few economic data releases and any market-moving shifts related to the new quarter beginning. **Today's Events** 9:00 a.m. — April FHFA Home Prices y/y (forecast: 1.7%) 9:00 a.m. — April Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (forecast: 0.9%, prior: 0.8%) 9:45 a.m. — June Chicago PMI (forecast: 58.1, prior: 62.7) 10:00 a.m. — May USA JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 7.30M, prior: 7.61M) 10:00 a.m. — June CB Consumer Confidence (forecast: 94.7, prior: 93.1) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

WTMS Video Summary

▶ Watch Today's Mortgage Market Recap

Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/29/26

{{catlist}}
June 29, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/29/2026** MBS underperformed to start the week as the 10-year Treasury climbed 1.6 basis points to 4.383 percent while UMBS 6.0 coupon dropped 7 ticks to 102.26. The flat overnight session gave way to mild selling pressure at 8:20 a.m., reflecting typical quarter-end positioning ahead of a quieter holiday week. Intraday volatility remained contained with GNMA securities showing broader weakness across coupons. The broader bond market gained traction last week as easing geopolitical tensions and plummeting energy prices reduced inflation shock concerns. Agency MBS held up better than expected despite falling rates, though originators faced margin pressure from widening primary-secondary spreads without a corresponding boost in loan production. Artificial intelligence adoption continues to dominate mortgage industry conversations, but actual borrower usage remains the true success metric for deployed technology. Industry experts increasingly recognize that technical sophistication alone fails if lenders introduce complexity rather than streamline processes for customers. The most successful technology implementations—like electronic promissory notes—operate invisibly to borrowers while modernizing back-end workflows substantially. Rather than replacing employees, lenders now deploy AI to automate repetitive tasks like document processing and reporting, freeing teams to focus on exception handling and relationship management. First-time homebuyers require education and ongoing communication, while repeat borrowers prioritize speed and minimal touchpoints, pushing lenders to design flexible workflows instead of rigid standardized models. Conventional conforming updates accelerated as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and correspondent lenders announced overlays and policy changes effective immediately through June. Fannie Mae reminded originators to meet the Uniform Appraisal Dataset 3.6 deadline of November 2, 2026, and published guidance on new escrow reporting requirements including expanded loan data and principal-interest remittance procedures. PennyMac issued consecutive LLPA updates on June 23 and June 26, 2026, affecting best-efforts commitments with immediate impact to pricing. Newrez Correspondent updated conventional and government overlay documents effective for pipeline and new applications dated June 25, 2026 forward. These frequent guideline shifts underscore that standard conforming remains the volume game, forcing lenders to stay vigilant on compliance or face sellback risk and operational friction. Freddie and Fannie continue driving the volume game as agency g-fees ratchet higher, pushing lenders toward cash execution and alternative channels for loan sales. The week's marquee economic event arrives Thursday with the June nonfarm payrolls report, where economists expect 115,000 job additions—down from May's 172,000—with unemployment holding steady at 4.3 percent. Tuesday's releases include April FHFA and S&P Case-Shiller housing indices, June Chicago PMI, and Consumer Confidence data. Wednesday brings June ADP employment, manufacturing PMI, May construction spending, and ISM Manufacturing Index before Treasury markets close early at 2 p.m. Thursday. With bond and equity markets closed Friday for Independence Day, this compressed week tests whether resilient economic data keeps Fed tightening alive or signals soft-landing momentum. Capital markets pricing continues to reflect uncertainty on Federal Reserve intentions despite last week's economic resilience data. First-quarter growth relied disproportionately on business investment in AI infrastructure rather than household consumption, raising questions about economic durability if that spending normalizes. Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut and forthcoming ECB Sintra conference remarks this week will reshape rate expectations, though energy price declines reduce tightening urgency and support longer-duration bond demand. The 10-year yield now sits at its lowest level in nearly eight weeks while the 2-year hit lows unseen in over a week, extending the recent rally. Elevated core PCE inflation remains the primary obstacle at the front end of the Treasury curve, though moderating inflation expectations and easing energy costs continue supporting the broader bond market's recent momentum. The industry's quiet pre-holiday week masks strategic conversations about mortgage operations, workforce readiness, and AI governance frameworks now dominating leadership discussions. This week's Chrisman video lineup features Brian Conneen discussing AI and fintech lessons for housing finance, Nicole Nosek on millennial homeownership trends, and panelists examining AI adoption realities beyond hype. Clear Capital data reveals that appraisal modernization adoption remains uneven despite clear efficiency gains, while inspection-based waivers gain traction as cultural and operational barriers slow UAD uptake. The daily mortgage news podcast interviews industry voices on valuation, capital markets, and operational strategy as lenders prepare for second-half execution under continuing regulatory pressure. Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to stay current on market moves and mortgage industry strategy. **Locking vs Floating** Borrowers should maintain caution heading into quarter-end given random volatility spikes remain possible, though the week's calm finish offered some reassurance on front-end stability. War-related headlines still circulate but require stronger evidence before bond markets react meaningfully. Next week presents larger volatility risks from big-ticket economic data, particularly Thursday's employment report, which will reset rate expectations significantly. **Today's Events** No scheduled economic data released today. Markets open with flat overnight conditions and modest selling pressure established at market open. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.62 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 100.61 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.26 | -0.07 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.82 | -0.16 | | 5.5 | 100.62 | -0.07 | | 6.0 | 102.1 | -0.01 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.109 | 99.794 | 0.014 | | 3yr | 4.11 | 100.041 | 0.014 | | 5yr | 4.145 | 99.912 | 0.017 | | 7yr | 4.251 | 99.992 | 0.017 | | 10yr | 4.379 | 99.965 | 0.013 | | 30yr | 4.861 | 102.181 | -0.007 |

WTMS Video Summary

▶ Watch Today's Mortgage Market Recap

RECENT ARTICLES

Mortgage Today (AM) – 07/01/26

admin2026-07-01T07:27:31-07:00July 1st, 2026|Week In Review|

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/30/26

admin2026-06-30T07:17:45-07:00June 30th, 2026|Week In Review|

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/29/26

admin2026-06-29T07:32:20-07:00June 29th, 2026|Week In Review|

Mortgage Today (PM) – 06/26/26

admin2026-06-26T14:33:13-07:00June 26th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 06/26/2026** Friday delivered a textbook case of diminishing returns as mortgage bonds started the day strong, rallied into noon, and then gave back gains [...]

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/26/26

admin2026-06-26T07:37:49-07:00June 26th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/26/2026** New home sales collapsed 7.3% in May, marking the lowest pace since January as affordability crises overwhelm buyers and builders alike. The annualized [...]

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/25/26

admin2026-06-25T07:23:22-07:00June 25th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/25/2026** Bonds rallied moderately today after the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index arrived exactly as expected, calming inflation concerns that have dominated recent trading. [...]

Send me some brain food

We will Put More Awesome Stuff
In Your Brain

RECENT ARTICLES

Mortgage Today (AM) – 07/01/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/30/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/29/26

Article Archive

Mortgage Today (PM) – 06/26/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/26/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/25/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/24/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/23/26

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/18/26

The Real Reason You Can’t Scale Your Real Estate Business (Hint: It’s Not About Working Harder)

Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/17/26

Subscribe

We will Put More Awesome Stuff In Your Brain

RECENT ARTICLES

Article Archive

Subscribe

We will Put More Awesome Stuff
In Your Brain