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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 06/11/26 {{catlist}}
June 11, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 06/10/2026** War headlines triggered a volatile reversal in mortgage bonds Wednesday as geopolitical concerns overwhelmed an inflation report that came in softer than feared. MBS fell roughly an eighth of a point from morning highs, with UMBS 5.0 dropping 15 basis points to 97.60, while the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.554 percent following Trump's comments about escalating attacks in Iran. Negative reprices became increasingly likely among the most reactive lenders as bond markets sold off on supply-demand imbalances following a Treasury auction. The core Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2 percent month-over-month—below the 0.3 percent forecast—offering brief relief before geopolitical fears drove yields higher. Oil prices moved alongside rate weakness, signaling genuine risk-off sentiment in capital markets. The afternoon deterioration erased early morning strength despite benign inflation data that should have supported bonds. Prices bounced sharply from the weakest intraday levels around 2:55 PM, recovering about three basis points from peaks near 4.559 percent on the 10-year. Risk-tolerant loan officers who maintained lock triggers at 4.57 percent remained positioned for upside, while conservative originators still lacked sufficient technical support for more neutral rate strategies. The market's reaction underscores how quickly geopolitical headlines can override economic fundamentals in the bond space. MBS pricing remains fragile with traders increasingly defensive about supply dynamics. Originators should brace for potential reprices if markets open weaker Thursday, particularly among lenders who printed rate sheets during this morning's peaks. The technical ceiling established at 4.80 percent on the 10-year remains far away, but resistance levels at 4.59 and 4.66 percent suggest room for additional weakness. Most of the afternoon selling was bond-specific rather than driven by new economic catalysts, meaning the catalyst for stabilization remains unclear. Client conversations should emphasize that inflation continues running above Federal Reserve targets, making near-term rate improvement unlikely. Lock activity should remain elevated given the uncertain rate trajectory and geopolitical noise dominating headlines. The broader question facing the market is whether elevated yields reflect a new equilibrium or prove temporary ahead of next week's batch of economic data. Tuesday's core PCE reading and Thursday's consumer confidence number could reset market expectations depending on whether inflation shows continued progress. Headline CPI at 4.2 percent still exceeds the Fed's 2 percent objective, justifying mortgage rates in the 6.4 to 6.5 percent range for borrowers. Supply-demand imbalances in Treasuries may have contributed as much to afternoon weakness as geopolitical concerns, suggesting some volatility could dissipate by Friday. MBS price action through mid-week should clarify whether bonds are building fresh support or heading toward session lows. **Locking vs Floating** Risk-tolerant borrowers should maintain lock triggers at 4.57 percent on the 10-year, while risk-averse clients still lack sufficient technical support to justify neutral positioning. Wednesday's volatility reinforces that bonds are leveling off after last week's selling, but the path forward remains uncertain given geopolitical and technical headwinds. **Today's Events** Core CPI (May): 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, 0.4% prior Headline CPI (May): 0.5% versus 0.5% forecast, 0.6% prior Core CPI year-over-year (May): 2.9% versus 2.9% forecast, 2.8% prior Headline CPI year-over-year (May): 4.2% versus 4.2% forecast, 3.8% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.60 | -0.15 | | 5.5 | 99.84 | -0.10 | | 5.0 | 98.22 | -0.24 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data
Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/10/26 {{catlist}}
June 10, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/10/2026** May's core inflation came in softer than expected at 0.2% month-over-month versus a forecast of 0.3%, giving mortgage markets a modest boost after a volatile week dominated by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The better-than-expected print helped UMBS securities gain ground, with 5.5% coupons climbing to 99.95, while the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back slightly to 4.525% from pre-data levels near 4.538%. Despite the relief, year-over-year core inflation remains sticky at 2.9%, signaling the Federal Reserve's inflation challenge is far from solved and rate-cut timing remains uncertain. Mortgage application volume surged 10.8% last week as borrowers capitalized on rate volatility windows created by Middle East headlines, with refinance activity jumping 15% and purchase applications up 7% from the prior week. ARM demand also picked up noticeably, with 5-year ARMs averaging 5.96% and comprising 8.6% of total applications as rate-sensitive borrowers explored alternative structures. The Mortgage Bankers Association noted that intraday rate swings during Iran ceasefire negotiations gave originators opportunities to lock clients at lower rates during favorable windows throughout the week. The lock-in effect continues reshaping the mortgage market as homeowners pulled a record $47 billion in home equity during Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter total since 2021. Second-lien originations and HELOC borrowing hit 20-year highs, with 248,000 borrowers accessing $25 billion through HELOCs and second liens while another 234,000 did cash-out refis for $22 billion. Nearly two-thirds of all second-lien volume came from borrowers still holding mortgages from 2020-2022, unwilling to give up those historically low rates and instead tapping equity through junior liens. Mortgage credit availability edged higher in May, with the MBA's index rising to 108.0, though the gains were modest and concentrated in jumbo ARM offerings as lenders targeted higher-income borrowers less sensitive to rate changes. Government loan programs and conforming credit remained flat, reflecting widespread lender caution amid 9-month rate highs and affordability headwinds that have squeezed purchase activity. The muted movement signals lenders are holding firm on underwriting standards despite industry pressure, preferring to expand only selective ARM programs rather than loosening traditional credit boxes. Middle East escalation poses significant tail risk to the mortgage market as President Trump authorized new strikes on Iranian targets after tensions over a downed U.S. helicopter threatened peace negotiations. Oil prices swung sharply on the news, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 2% and Brent jumping 1.7% to $93 per barrel, raising concerns about energy-driven inflation that could complicate the Fed's path back to its 2% target. Any sustained oil rally would likely push Treasury yields higher and pressure MBS valuations by increasing expectations for longer-duration rate hikes. Today's Treasury auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes will test investor appetite in a market grappling with geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation readings that keep the Fed sidelined. The broader economic backdrop remains surprisingly resilient with solid labor markets and consumer spending offsetting recession fears, but the combination of energy price risk and inflation persistence has pushed markets toward a higher-for-longer rate framework. Originators should monitor both the auction results and this afternoon's Treasury budget data as signals for where rates may settle in the near term. **Locking vs Floating** Borrowers with risk tolerance should consider locking purchase rates now given that soft CPI data provided only modest relief and geopolitical risks remain elevated with additional Iranian tensions. The 4.57% mark represents an overhead resistance level where risk-tolerant clients found previous opportunity, but conservative borrowers should wait for more substantial evidence of bond market support before adopting a neutral rate outlook. Intraday volatility from war headlines creates tactical opportunities but reinforces the case for prudent borrowers to lock today rather than bet on sustained rate improvement. **Today's Events** May Core CPI released at 0.2% month-over-month versus forecast of 0.3%; 2.9% year-over-year versus forecast of 2.9% May Headline CPI released at 0.5% month-over-month versus forecast of 0.5%; 4.2% year-over-year versus forecast of 4.2% $39 billion 10-year Treasury note auction scheduled for today May Treasury Budget statement expected later today **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data
UWM Just Called Two Harbors' Bluff — And This $1.3B Poker Game Is Getting Absolutely Wild {{catlist}}
June 10, 2026
READ MORE

UWM Just Called Two Harbors' Bluff — And This $1.3B Poker Game Is Getting Absolutely Wild

Shareholder vote delayed AGAIN as Two Harbors demands all-cash terms and UWM says "let's talk." Spoiler: Nobody's blinking yet.

Remember when you thought your last deal was complicated? Try negotiating a $1.3 billion acquisition while your target company keeps moving the goalposts, delaying shareholder votes, and publicly demanding you restructure the entire deal. Welcome to June 2026, where the UWM-Two Harbors saga has officially entered its "hold my beer" phase. If you've been following this mortgage industry soap opera (and honestly, how could you not?), you know we've already covered how Cross Country Mortgage executives allegedly torched $100 million in value right before their sale to UWM, and how this whole mess turned into a corporate brawl that makes your average rate sheet war look like a kindergarten disagreement. But here's where things get really interesting: Two Harbors just delayed its shareholder vote for the second time — now pushed to June 23 — and publicly told UWM to come back with a fully financed, all-cash offer at the same $12.50 per share price. Oh, and they want assurances that UWM's stock won't default during the transition period. You know, just casual billion-dollar demands.
The "Show Me The Money" Moment
Two Harbors isn't playing games anymore. In their latest move, they've essentially said to UWM: "We love your offer, but we'd love it more if it came with actual cash instead of your stock." This is the corporate equivalent of your borrower saying "I'll take that rate... if you can also throw in zero closing costs, a free appraisal, and a pony." The concern isn't completely unfounded. The original deal was all-stock, meaning Two Harbors shareholders would receive UWM shares valued at $12.50 per share. But what happens if UWM's stock takes a nosedive between now and closing? Two Harbors wants protection against that scenario — specifically, they want cold, hard cash that doesn't fluctuate with market sentiment or Mat Ishbia's latest Twitter proclamation. Here's the kicker: Two Harbors isn't just asking for cash. They're demanding a fully financed cash offer with no stock price contingencies. Translation: "UWM, prove you can actually write a check this big without needing to sell stock, take on risky debt, or raid the office vending machines."
UWM's Response: "Let's Talk" (But Also "We're Right")
To UWM's credit, they didn't storm off in a huff. Instead, they've signaled openness to "enhancing" their offer while simultaneously reaffirming that their original $12.50-per-share bid is totally fair and everyone should just calm down already. Reading between the lines of UWM's public statements, their position seems to be: "Look, we'll negotiate, but we're not desperate here. Our offer was generous. If Two Harbors wants to unlock additional value, great — let's have that conversation. But we're not getting played." It's a delicate dance. UWM wants Two Harbors, but they also can't afford to look weak or overpay in a market where every competitor is watching. Meanwhile, Two Harbors needs this deal to close, but not at the expense of their shareholders getting steamrolled if UWM's stock tanks. The result? Another delayed vote, more public posturing, and mortgage brokers everywhere wondering if their favorite wholesale lender is about to get significantly bigger or spectacularly embarrassed.
What This Means for You (Yes, You)
If you're an LO reading this and thinking "cool story, but what does this have to do with my pipeline?" — fair question. Here's why you should care: First, if this deal closes (big if at this point), UWM instantly becomes an even more dominant force in wholesale lending. That could mean better rates, more aggressive programs, or just Mat Ishbia with an even bigger megaphone. Your rate sheets could look different by Q3. Second, this is a masterclass in M&A dysfunction. If you've ever wondered what happens when corporate egos, shareholder interests, and billion-dollar valuations collide — this is it. The lessons here about due diligence, deal protection, and corporate governance will echo through the industry for years. Third, Cross Country Mortgage isn't going anywhere regardless of who owns them. If you've got relationships with CCM folks or compete against them in your market, understanding the stability (or chaos) of their ownership situation matters. Uncertainty breeds opportunity — or disaster, depending on which side you're on.
The June 23 Showdown
All eyes are now on June 23, when Two Harbors shareholders will (theoretically) finally vote on whether to accept UWM's offer — assuming UWM doesn't revise it, Two Harbors doesn't delay again, or a meteor doesn't strike their corporate headquarters. The smart money says UWM will come back with something — maybe not full cash, but perhaps a cash-and-stock hybrid with better protections for Two Harbors shareholders. UWM has publicly indicated they're open to negotiations, and walking away now would be admitting defeat after months of very public courtship. But here's the thing about poker: sometimes the player with the better hand still loses because they blink first. Two Harbors is betting UWM wants this deal badly enough to sweeten the pot. UWM is betting Two Harbors doesn't have better options and will eventually accept reality. And Cross Country Mortgage executives are probably updating their LinkedIn profiles just in case. The next two weeks will tell us whether this becomes the mortgage industry's deal of the decade or its most spectacular flameout since... well, since the last spectacular flameout we all witnessed. One thing's for sure: nobody's getting bored in mortgage land this summer. And if you thought rate volatility made your job interesting, just imagine negotiating a billion-dollar acquisition while your target company keeps changing the terms and the whole industry watches with popcorn.  
Want to stay ahead of the mortgage industry's wildest drama, biggest deals, and the occasional rate sheet that actually makes sense? Subscribe to Well That Makes Sense at WellThatMakesSense.com and get the mortgage news you actually want to read — minus the corporate jargon, plus the occasional dad joke. Because if we're going to watch billion-dollar companies fight in public, we might as well enjoy it.
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