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Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/10/26

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November 10, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/10/2026** Hotter CPI slammed bonds this morning, with core +0.3% m/m (vs. 0.2% est) and headline +0.4% (vs. 0.3% est) pushing the 10-year back toward 4.90–4.95%. UMBS prices slipped on the print as Fed Governor Waller backed a December hike and said he’d support a larger move if inflation re-accelerates. Rate sheets face renewed pressure after last week’s relief. Markets now lean more decisively toward a December move while watching how much of today’s weakness passes through to primary mortgage pricing. Expect intraday volatility around the 10-year auction. The backdrop remains whipsaw volatility: an AI-led equity selloff and a sharp oil drop briefly rekindled a flight-to-quality, pulling the 10-year below 5.0% late last week. That rally stalled as tech stabilized and policy hawks reasserted the inflation fight, leaving MBS lagging Treasuries on spread. With convexity still a headwind, production coupons haven’t fully captured the Treasury rally. For secondary teams, that means two‑sided risk into auctions and data. On the mortgage tape, prepayments slowed in October (Ginnie speeds -14.8% m/m; conventional -9.2%), and refinancing incentives remain scarce with the modeled par rate still near 7%. ARM usage continues to climb (October locks ~17%) as borrowers hunt monthly savings. GNMA liquidity remains orderly, but mid-coupon UMBS/GNMA 5.0–6.0s offer the best relative value if volatility moderates. Expect servicing-heavy names to benefit near-term from slower speeds despite today’s rate pop. Origination flow is mixed: MBA apps dipped last week (purchases -2% w/w; -19% y/y), though TransUnion’s Q2 showed originations +12.8% y/y with HELOCs +20.3%. Competitive dynamics are shifting—Zillow Home Loans’ FHA down-payment assistance (a 0%/no‑payment subordinate forgivable after five years) raises the bar on borrower offers, not just rates. LOs should lead with total-cost solutions (buys, ARMs, buydowns, HELOCs) and be ready to counter real-time with fully priced scenarios. Pipeline hedgers face familiar “rally fades/risk lingers” math: a further rate rise widens MBS basis; a bond bid shortens duration and forces hedge trims. Keep lock desks nimble into supply and data, and prioritize execution where investor appetite is deepest in higher coupons. Explain rate-sheet moves proactively—especially around auction tails and CPI‑driven reprices—to reduce concession creep. Housing demand is still constrained: October contract signings fell 17% y/y to a record low for the month, even as active listings rose 7.4% and median asking prices eased 2.2%. Cancellations were steady at 7.8%, but fewer fresh listings (-7.5% y/y) limit true inventory churn. Translation: tighter pipelines, longer cycle times, and more rate sensitivity per file. Focus on turn-times, lock discipline, and cost-to-manufacture. **Locking vs Floating** With the CPI miss and a 10-year auction on deck, bias tilts toward locking on day-of-closing and short-horizon loans; float only if you have cushion, time, and a defined stop. The 10-year’s 5.00% area remains a key pivot—failed rallies there have reversed quickly. Recent bond strength was tech/oil driven, not a fundamental disinflation shift; treat rate dips as tactical. Be ready for headline whipsaws and negative reprices through the auction window. Take wins early if pricing meets borrower goals. **Today's Events** - October CPI: headline +0.4% m/m; core +0.3% m/m - U.S. 10-year Treasury auction (1:00 PM ET) - Fed speakers: Waller, Logan, Schmid - NFIB Small Business Optimism (AM) - Wholesale Inventories (PM) Subscribe free for daily brevity at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/09/26

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November 9, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/09/2026** Bonds held their ground despite a stock rebound, with UMBS 6.0 near 100.09 (-0.01) and the 10-year Treasury up modestly to 4.88%. After last week’s rally, trading suggests rates are getting comfortable at these levels. MBS price changes were small and orderly through the session. Lenders saw only limited negative reprice risk intraday. CPI now moves to center stage. The recent bond rally has been most sensitive to “neocloud”/AI tech jitters; today’s equity bounce didn’t meaningfully unwind that support. Softer oil prices provided an additional tailwind. Post‑election volatility cooled, and markets refocused on data. Treasury supply remains a background factor, but not a primary driver today. Net effect: consolidation, not capitulation. Near-term catalysts arrive quickly: Tuesday’s CPI and later-week PPI can shift the rate path. Treasury auctions and corporate supply may add cross‑currents. A benign inflation print could extend the rally; a hot one risks a push back toward 4.93–5.00% in 10s. Until then, price action implies “wait-and-see” over wholesale repositioning. Keep intraday equity swings on the radar. In coupons, 30‑year UMBS 6.0 slipped a tick while 6.5s added a hair, reflecting a steady curve and manageable convexity. GNMA 6.0 lagged slightly, down 0.04. Mortgage spreads were broadly stable as desks marked minor moves rather than trends. Primary mortgage rates remain in the low‑7s on average, with lender‑level dispersion tied to coupon mix and hedging. Liquidity was decent for a Monday. On the origination side, equity is the story: homeowners hold a record ~$17.5T, and cash‑out is now the bulk of refi locks. Servicer retention on refis fell to 27%, meaning most cash‑out borrowers are leaving their current lender. That’s an opening for proactive outreach and HELOC/second‑lien options. ARM share continues to tick higher as buyers hunt payment relief. Housing remains mixed: inventory is improving and buyers have more leverage, yet payments rose ~13% YoY with flat headline prices as rates did the heavy lifting. Expect slower pendings into year‑end and a cautious start to 2027 without clearer rate relief. For now, focus on payment‑centric structures, buydowns, and equity‑based solutions to keep deals live. **Locking vs Floating** With CPI tomorrow, near‑term risk skews to volatility rather than trend change. Risk‑averse pipelines should favor locking on workable quotes, especially for closings inside two weeks. Risk‑tolerant borrowers can float cautiously, using clear triggers near 10‑year yield resistance at ~4.93–5.00% and locking on adverse breaks. Expect whipsaws around the print; keep repricing thresholds tight, particularly on lower‑liquidity coupons. Bigger, sustained gains still likely require renewed tech/AI sector stress or cooler inflation. **Today's Events** - 1:00 PM ET: 3-Year Treasury Note Auction (indicative award 4.932%) - Tomorrow: CPI (key market catalyst) - Roll Date – UMBS 30YR (Tuesday) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/09/26

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November 9, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/09/2026** Bonds are starting the week steady near the recent lows, with the 10-year hovering around 4.85–4.86% as oil’s pullback and last week’s risk-off tone keep a lid on yields. After a five-week rebound, UMBS are holding most of their gains, but intraday volatility remains elevated. The AI-led equity shakeout added to the safe-haven bid, while the election outcome reduced odds of big new fiscal stimulus. Net: rate sheets are modestly better than late October, but headline sensitivity is still high. Eyes shift quickly to tomorrow’s CPI for the next directional cue. UMBS performance improved into month-end as production coupons firmed and the conventional current coupon ticked down toward the high‑5s. Primary/secondary spreads tightened slightly, reflecting better investor appetite despite choppy flows. October prepayment speeds slowed again, reinforcing extension in discount collateral and supporting payups in well-specified pools. Hedgers should stay nimble: basis has traded well vs. Treasuries, but liquidity pockets remain thin on headline bursts. Expect dealers to stay balanced ahead of CPI and this week’s refunding. Ginnie paper lagged a touch on spread moves, with GNMA speeds dropping more than conventionals amid still‑elevated FHA credit tails. TransUnion’s latest data show FHA loans comprising a rising share of 60+ day delinquencies, even as agency and jumbo credit remain broadly stable. That credit mix keeps cashflow dispersion high across coupons and servicers. For pipeline managers, assign appropriate extension/turnover assumptions on GNMA production to avoid convexity surprises if rates back up. The election’s Democratic sweep tempered expectations for another fiscal push, aiding last week’s rally; now the focus turns back to the Fed and inflation. Markets still lean toward a December hike, but oil’s slide and softer long-run growth expectations have pulled real yields down from October’s peaks. Chair Warsh’s move to fewer rate-setting meetings in 2027 adds to the “wait-and-see” posture. Bottom line: we’re range‑bound into CPI, with macro and AI headlines the swing factors. On the origination front, apps rose modestly in late October while ARMs climbed to their highest share in over a year as borrowers hunt payment relief. HELOC demand remains strong, and lenders report faster verification and fulfillment win volume. Competitive dynamics are shifting: Zillow’s move to cover full FHA minimum down payments for eligible borrowers will pressure pure-rate plays and elevate advice-led selling. Operationally, UAD 3.6 is live—lenders need updated appraisal review policies now to avoid suspenses and repurchase risk. Housing activity remains rate-sensitive: October contract signings hit a record October low, with buyers balking at payment levels even as for-sale inventory edges higher. Asking prices have softened at the margin, cancellations are stable, and builders continue to deploy incentives and buydowns to clear standing spec. Expect seasonality and affordability to keep purchase volume subdued near term, with any sustained relief hinging on clearer disinflation and steadier rates into year‑end. **Locking vs Floating** Momentum is constructive but fragile; after a sharp rally, markets face event risk from CPI and refunding. Use morning strength to capture targets on near‑term closings, especially for floaters exposed to renegotiation risk. If tech volatility calms or inflation surprises, yields could re-test tops of the new range. Conversely, a soft CPI can extend gains, but don’t be complacent—basis liquidity remains patchy, and headlines can flip the tape. Bias: lock inside 15 days; consider cautious floats beyond that with defined triggers. **Today's Events** - Wholesale Inventories (Sep) - U.S. Treasury 3‑Year Note Auction - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks (10:00 a.m. ET) - NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations (11:00 a.m. ET) - Treasury bill auctions (6‑week, 3‑month, 6‑month) Subscribe free for daily market intel at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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