Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/24/26

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April 24, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/24/2026 Tech earnings and Iran peace talks are lifting sentiment across capital markets, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down 2.1 basis points to 4.302% this morning. Intel's blockbuster sales forecast sparked a 29% premarket surge, signaling the AI chip boom remains intact despite earlier doubts. The Nasdaq 100 is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain as semiconductor companies prove artificial intelligence demand cannot yet be met by supply. Oil fell 1.2% on optimism that US-Iran negotiations could ease Middle East tensions, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Treasuries advanced on the combined effect of tech strength and de-escalation hopes. Mortgage-backed securities participated in the broader bond rally as risk-off positioning unwound. UMBS 5.0 gained 8 basis points intraday to 99.07, while 5.5 and 6.0 coupons each posted 4-8 basis point moves higher. GNMA securities showed similar but slightly more muted strength, with the 5.5 coupon reaching 100.85 and the 6.0 at 101.90. The across-the-curve Treasury sell-off (yields down 11-21 basis points) created favorable pricing conditions for MBS originators. Loan lock activity likely accelerated as borrowers reacted to improved rate environments. Market volatility remains elevated despite Friday's generally positive tone, as geopolitical headlines can shift sentiment rapidly within hours. Yesterday's intraday reversals demonstrated how quickly bond markets can reprice on Middle East war developments and diplomatic signals. Volatility risk is particularly pronounced heading into and out of weekends when news flow from overseas intensifies. MBS price monitoring remains essential for real-time lock decisions, while the 10-year yield ceiling and floor levels serve as macro momentum anchors. Originators should prepare for possible weekend headline whipsaws. Economic data today includes the University of Michigan sentiment index at 10:00 AM ET, following recent jobless claims that beat expectations. Last week's continued claims came in at 1,821K versus 1,820K forecast, while April jobless claims measured 214K against a 212K expectation. These labor market signals remain constructive for rate stability, though any deterioration could trigger sharp volatility. Next week's Treasury supply in the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year tenors will test market appetite. Originators should monitor today's sentiment print for signs of consumer confidence. nn Locking vs Floating Intraday volatility continues to reward disciplined lock policies even on days when rates improve. The rapid repricing risk tied to Middle East developments means floating a pipeline exposes sellers to multi-basis-point swings within single trading sessions. Yesterday's moves demonstrated how headlines can reverse intraday gains just as quickly as they appear. Despite this morning's rally, geopolitical tail risk remains skewed to the downside for those holding rate exposure. Consider locking rate-sensitive borrowers through the weekend given the elevated news flow and limited trading liquidity in after-hours sessions. nn Today's Events University of Michigan Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM ET. nn Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.07 | 0.08 | | 5.5 | 100.84 | 0.08 | | 6.0 | 102.26 | 0.04 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.53 | 0.03 | | 5.5 | 100.85 | 0.04 | | 6.0 | 101.9 | 0.09 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.819 | 100.108 | -0.019 | | 3 yr | 3.834 | 99.063 | -0.014 | | 5 yr | 3.943 | 99.694 | -0.016 | | 7 yr | 4.117 | 100.799 | -0.014 | | 10 yr | 4.31 | 98.513 | -0.015 | | 30 yr | 4.901 | 97.64 | -0.011 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/23/26

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April 24, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/23/2026 Retail sales crushed expectations in March, with the headline figure jumping 1.7% versus a 1.4% forecast, while the control group posted a stunning 0.7% beat on expectations of 0.2%. This stronger-than-expected consumer demand signals economic resilience heading into spring and likely keeps the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates. However, geopolitical uncertainty from the ceasefire extension continues to create a narrow, indecisive trading range in bond markets with little directional incentive. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.322%, up 0.016 from the previous close, reflecting modest upward pressure from stronger economic data. Mortgage originators should watch for any shift in this range as the week progresses. Employment data delivered mixed signals, with ADP employment change coming in at 54.75K versus the prior month's 39K, but pending home sales disappointed marginally at 1.5% versus a 0.1% forecast. The employment print suggests labor market resilience, though it lagged the outsized gains from weeks prior. Pending home sales, which track signed purchase agreements, showed weakness compared to expectations, hinting at softness in real estate contract activity. Together, these data points paint a picture of a consumer still spending but potentially hesitant on major purchases like homes. Bond traders are weighing this contradiction carefully, keeping yields in neutral territory for now. UMBS 30-year securities showed minimal intraday movement, with the 5.0% coupon down just 0.01 to 99.15 and the 6.0% coupon flat at 102.24, reflecting the market's indecision. GNMA 30-year coupons posted slightly larger losses, with the 5.0% down 0.03 to 99.62 and the 6.0% down 0.05 to 101.8, underperforming UMBS by a few ticks. The flatter price action across both securities aligns with Treasury yields holding steady in a narrow band. Mortgage originators pricing loans today can expect similar stagnation unless economic surprises emerge or geopolitical risk escalates. Hedging strategies should account for low volatility environment but remain alert to sudden directional moves. Locking vs Floating The ceasefire extension with an indefinite new deadline removes the immediate catalyst for sharp bond market moves, locking the 10-year into a ceiling-floor trading band. Stronger retail sales and employment data create mild upside pressure on rates, but pending home sales weakness tempers bullish sentiment. Mortgage originators should advise borrowers that rate locks remain prudent given limited downside room in this range. Floating strategies work only if traders expect a surprise rate cut or geopolitical resolution, both of which appear unlikely in the immediate term. Current conditions favor locking for most loan programs unless borrowers have strong conviction on near-term rate relief. Today's Events ADP Employment Change Weekly: 54.75K vs 39K previous Retail Sales (Mar): 1.7% vs 1.4% forecast, 0.6% previous Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar): 0.7% vs 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous Pending Home Sales (Mar): 1.5% vs 0.1% forecast, 1.8% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.15 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.86 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.24 | 0 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.62 | -0.03 | | 5.5 | 100.87 | -0.03 | | 6.0 | 101.8 | -0.05 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 3.802 | 100.139 | 0.005 | | 3yr | 3.819 | 99.105 | -0.001 | | 5yr | 3.931 | 99.749 | 0.002 | | 7yr | 4.11 | 100.845 | 0.003 | | 10yr | 4.307 | 98.538 | 0.003 | | 30yr | 4.909 | 97.516 | 0.001 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/23/26

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April 24, 2026

--- WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/23/2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac officially opened the credit-scoring door this week, accepting VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO for the first time ever. This shift matters because it injects real competition into a system that's been controlled by one player for decades, which could reshape qualification standards and lower borrower costs across the industry. The GSEs are banking on VantageScore's inclusion of rent payment history to expand the credit-qualified pool, particularly among borrowers FICO has historically penalized. However, key questions remain unanswered: Will lenders adopt it quickly, will capital markets accept it, and where does FICO 10T fit into this equation? The speed and breadth of adoption will determine whether this becomes a genuine game-changer or a modest alternative. Private equity is betting big on mortgage brokerages, with Presidio Investors taking a strategic stake in Edge Home Finance amid broader industry consolidation. This deal signals investor confidence in the brokerage model despite competitive headwinds from retail lenders and loan officer platforms. The move reflects a larger trend of PE firms seeing margin and operational arbitrage opportunities in origination infrastructure. For loan officers, this raises the question of whether brokerage networks can scale efficiently enough to compete with tech-forward hybrid models and direct lenders. Bond markets experienced intraday volatility today despite thin news catalysts, driven largely by false or misconstrued Iran headlines that temporarily rattled oil, stocks, and fixed income. Mortgage-backed securities (UMBS) fell approximately one-eighth to one-quarter point during the peak weakness in early afternoon trading, though markets clawed back some losses as refutations emerged. The 10-year Treasury briefly spiked to 4.349% before settling around 4.313%, illustrating how geopolitical uncertainty continues to amplify normal market swings. For loan officers, this reinforces the value of locking borrowers on confirmation rather than waiting for ephemeral headline-driven rallies. Jobless claims printed slightly hotter than forecast at 214K versus 212K expected, while continued claims held steady near estimates. These modest economic surprises didn't meaningfully shift market direction on their own, but they combined with geopolitical jitters to create a restless trading environment heading into the weekend. The labor market remains resilient without showing overt weakness that might trigger Fed accommodation, keeping longer-term rates anchored in a relatively narrow band. Employment data continues to anchor bond yields in the 4.30-4.35% range for the 10-year, constraining upside rate relief. Secondary mortgage market technicals show the 10-year is testing a key resistance level around 4.34%, with meaningful ceilings established at 4.40%, 4.48%, 4.59%, and 4.66%. Support floors sit at 4.28%, 4.19%, 4.12%, and 4.05%, creating a trading corridor that shapes intraday repricing windows for risk-averse lenders. The volatility pattern—rapid moves followed by quick reversals—is becoming the new norm and tends to spike into and out of weekends when fewer market participants cover risk. Loan officers should recognize this rhythm as a strategic repricing warning sign. Home prices have surged 551% since 1980 while household incomes lagged significantly, intensifying affordability pressure and widening the qualification challenge for originators. Multigenerational financing strategies and rent-based credit scoring are emerging as adaptive responses to this mismatch, reflecting real consumer innovation in the face of structural economic headwinds. The VantageScore expansion makes sense in this context—it's an attempt to unlock borrowers and loan officers to deploy alternative repayment history evidence. Understanding this tailwind helps LOs position credit score competition as an affordability solution, not just a competitive threat. Locking vs Floating Volatility reinforces rapid market changes tied to headline risk, particularly around geopolitical developments. This environment favors locking confirmed loans over floating and waiting for reversals, as intraday swings of 5+ ticks create repricing tread without clear directional conviction. Weekend protection is valuable given the elevated volatility bias into and out of week transitions. Borrowers should lock on resets rather than chase increasingly uncertain rally scenarios. Today's Events Jobless Claims (April 18): 214K vs 212K forecast, 207K prior Continued Claims (April 11): 1,821K vs 1,820K forecast, 1,818K prior Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.01 | -0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | -0.09 | | 5.0 | 99.52 | -0.12 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data

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