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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/18/26 {{catlist}}
June 18, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/18/2026** Trump's Iran deal signature late Wednesday sparked an overnight bond rally that mortgage originators are watching closely, as UMBS securities climbed back into positive territory by mid-morning trading. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.44 percent—down 5 basis points from Wednesday's close at 4.49 percent—providing temporary relief after Tuesday's post-Warsh sell-off rattled the MBS market. GNMA 5.0 securities outperformed UMBS, rising 41 basis points to 98.69, signaling continued demand for government-backed pools. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's debut meeting sent mixed signals: he held rates steady at 3.5-3.75 percent but signaled the central bank remains laser-focused on inflation without committing to a rate path. Bond traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as October, reflecting Warsh's hawkish inflation rhetoric. Jobless claims came in at 226,000—exactly in line with forecasts—while continuing claims ticked up slightly to 1.81 million, suggesting the labor market remains steady but not accelerating. The Philadelphia Fed's June manufacturing index surprised to the upside at 10.3 versus forecasts of 10.0, but prices paid surged to 53.20, marking a significant jump in inflationary pressure at the regional level. These economic readings keep the Fed's attention on inflation rather than employment, reinforcing Warsh's message that rate cuts are off the table. For mortgage sellers, a data-dependent Fed means every CPI print and jobs report will swing Treasury yields and MBS valuations sharply. Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth, removing a full trading day from the week. Geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East—the US-Iran memorandum of understanding restores Strait of Hormuz traffic within 30 days—is easing oil-supply anxiety and pushing crude prices lower. West Texas Intermediate slid to $75.29 per barrel on the Iran deal news, helping gasoline prices dip below $4 per gallon for the first time since March. Lower energy costs could theoretically reduce inflation pressures, but the Fed and markets are skeptical that oil alone will cool the sticky 4.2 percent inflation still running well above the 2 percent target. Any sustained relief at the pump may provide modest tailwinds to mortgage demand if consumers feel less financial pressure at the checkout counter. Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance leaves traders guessing about the Fed's next move, creating intraday volatility in MBS. Technical levels matter right now for hedging and positioning decisions, so originators should watch the 10-year yield's 4.42 percent floor—where bonds rejected hard on Wednesday morning before recovering most losses. The 2-year yield, however, lost more ground than longer maturities, steepening the yield curve slightly as traders price in eventual rate hikes while longer bonds rally on disinflationary hopes tied to artificial intelligence and tech productivity gains. UMBS 5.0 settled at 98.29 (up 29 basis points), while 6.0 coupons climbed to 102.02, indicating strong repricing across the coupon stack. If the 10-year breaks back above 4.50 percent, expect MBS to weaken sharply, particularly shorter-duration coupons. Conversely, a hold below 4.45 percent keeps the overnight recovery intact. **Locking vs Floating** Economic data remains mixed: labor markets are holding steady (jobless claims on forecast), but regional inflation signals are flashing red (Philly Fed prices paid surged 11 percent month-over-month). Rate-hike bets have shifted from "unlikely" to "possible by fall" after Warsh's hawkish debut, making float positioning risky for borrowers who assumed the Fed was done. Originators should counsel rate-sensitive customers to lock sooner rather than later, as the cost to float is rising with each inflation print and each Fed speaker emphasizing inflation discipline. The Iran deal may buy two to three weeks of relative calm, but the technical rejection at 4.42 percent suggests bond market confidence remains fragile. **Today's Events** Jobless Claims (Jun/13): 226K vs. 225K forecast, 229K prior Continued Claims (Jun/06): 1,810K vs. 1,800K forecast, 1,795K prior Philly Fed Business Index (Jun): 10.3 vs. 10.0 forecast, -0.4 prior Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun): 53.20 vs. no forecast, 47.90 prior Conference Board Leading Index (May): 0.1% MoM (released 10:00 AM) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.29 | 0.29 | | 5.5 | 100.3 | 0.22 | | 6.0 | 102.02 | 0.08 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.0 | 98.69 | 0.41 | | 5.5 | 100.46 | 0.31 | | 6.0 | 101.87 | 0.21 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 4.168 | 99.443 | -0.016 | | 3 yr | 4.181 | 98.099 | -0.032 | | 5 yr | 4.22 | 98.459 | -0.04 | | 7 yr | 4.319 | 99.587 | -0.048 | | 10 yr | 4.44 | 97.479 | -0.045 | | 30 yr | 4.882 | 97.932 | -0.046 | Subscribe free to receive market updates each morning at WellThatMakesSense.com. Market Data
The Real Reason You Can't Scale Your Real Estate Business (Hint: It's Not About Working Harder) {{catlist}}
June 18, 2026
READ MORE reading notes from Alex Hormozi on the Modern Wisdom Podcast.  You should listen to Modern Wisdom.  It's good.

The Real Reason You Can't Scale Your Real Estate Business (Hint: It's Not About Working Harder)

Alex Hormozi's framework for why most agents hit an income ceiling and how to actually break through it

Blog post

There's a moment in every successful real estate professional's career when they realize they've hit a wall. They're working harder than ever, closing more deals than most agents dream of, making good money, and somehow they can't grow beyond their current level. They've maxed out their personal capacity and don't know what to do next. Alex Hormozi would say this isn't a capacity problem—it's a business design problem. And the solution isn't working harder, it's completely restructuring how you think about scaling. On Modern Wisdom, Hormozi broke down why most service businesses—including real estate—can't scale beyond the founder's personal capacity. The answer is uncomfortable: they've built a business that requires them personally for every transaction. They haven't created systems that work without them, they haven't built teams that can execute independently, and they haven't developed leverage that allows one hour of their time to generate multiple hours of output. They've built a high-paying job, not a scalable business. The real estate industry makes this problem worse by celebrating individual achievement. We worship the solo superstar agent who closes a hundred deals a year through sheer personal effort. We give awards to the loan officer who personally processes more loans than anyone else. We've created a culture that equates scaling with working more hours rather than building better systems. Hormozi would say we're optimizing for the wrong thing entirely. Here's the brutal truth: if your business can't grow without you working more hours, you don't have a scaling problem—you have a business model problem. Hormozi built multiple companies to eight figures not by working more hours than everyone else, but by building systems and teams that could execute without his constant involvement. Most real estate professionals never make this shift, which is why they hit an income ceiling and stay there.

The Three Scaling Constraints Nobody Talks About

Hormozi identifies three primary constraints that prevent businesses from scaling: time, energy, and attention. You have limited time—twenty-four hours per day, same as everyone else. You have limited energy—you can only personally do so much before burning out. You have limited attention—you can only focus on so many things at once before quality suffers. Every business that fails to scale is hitting one or more of these constraints. For real estate professionals, time constraint shows up when you're personally involved in every showing, every negotiation, every transaction detail. There are only so many hours available, which means there's a hard ceiling on how many deals you can personally close. Energy constraint shows up when you're working sixty-hour weeks and can't maintain that pace without burning out. Attention constraint shows up when you're trying to manage leads, current clients, marketing, and administration simultaneously and everything suffers. Most agents try to scale by working harder—more hours, more hustle, more personal effort. This temporarily increases output but inevitably hits one of the three constraints. You run out of time, energy, or attention, and growth stops. Hormozi's solution: remove yourself as the constraint by building systems and teams that don't require your personal time, energy, or attention to execute. This requires a fundamental mindset shift from "I need to do more" to "I need to build systems that do more without me." For most real estate professionals, this is terrifying because their entire identity is wrapped up in being personally excellent. Hormozi would say your personal excellence should be in building systems, not in executing transactions. The latter has a ceiling, the former doesn't.

The Delegation Disaster Most Agents Create

When real estate professionals finally decide to scale, they usually hire an assistant or buyer's agent and immediately screw it up. They delegate tasks without delegating authority, they micromanage every detail, they step in whenever something isn't perfect, and they wonder why their team can't execute without them. Hormozi would say they're delegating wrong, which is almost worse than not delegating at all. Real delegation means transferring both responsibility and authority. It means creating systems so clear that someone else can execute them without constantly asking for your input. It means accepting that they'll do things differently than you would and that's okay as long as results are achieved. It means building accountability systems rather than supervision systems. For listing agents, this might mean creating a complete listing presentation system that a team member can execute—scripts, materials, pricing analysis templates, marketing plans—everything documented so thoroughly that you
 
Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/17/26 {{catlist}}
June 17, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/17/2026** Retail sales punched above expectations this morning, rising 0.9 percent in May versus a forecast of 0.5 percent, signaling consumer resilience that could complicate the Fed's rate-cutting narrative. The control group—a key inflation measure stripped of autos and gas—also beat estimates at 0.7 percent versus 0.4 percent expected. This stronger-than-anticipated demand data arrives on a critical day: the Federal Reserve's first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose communication style and stance on inflation could reshape market expectations for the remainder of 2026. Treasuries are already pricing in a more balanced or slightly hawkish Fed, with the 10-year yield holding near 4.43 percent after touching a recent floor of 4.42 percent yesterday. Warsh's press conference this afternoon will be closely watched for clues on the future policy path and whether his approach diverges from his predecessors. MBS prices remain essentially flat on the day, with UMBS gaining modest ground while Ginnie Mae securities underperformed ahead of settlement positioning. The 10-year Treasury is unchanged at 4.43 percent, showing investors are in a wait-and-see posture before the Fed decision. Agency MBS in the middle coupon stack tightened spreads slightly, but higher and lower coupons lagged the rally as the yield curve flattened. Oil prices fell below $80 per barrel on optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though broader market response has been muted as traders remain skeptical about the durability of any peace deal. The combination of easing energy concerns and lingering geopolitical uncertainty has left rates near the lower end of their recent range. Technical resistance levels remain critical for mortgage originators deciding on rate-lock strategies. Yesterday's test of the 4.42 percent floor on the 10-year yield sparked multiple bounces before the afternoon bounce higher, suggesting traders are cautious about pushing yields decisively below this level. For loan officers managing pipelines, this technical resistance means borrowers with 4.57 percent lock triggers may be inclined toward more defensive positioning until the 4.42 percent level is conclusively broken. Bond market momentum—tracked through these 10-year yield ceilings and floors—helps originators understand whether recent rate moves signal broader structural shifts or are simply intraday noise. With major economic data and Fed policy decisions still ahead, tactical positioning becomes essential for managing pipeline risk. Non-QM originations are projected to reach $150 billion to $180 billion this year, while HELOC volume grew nearly 6 percent year-over-year in Q3 2025, reflecting borrower demand for alternative products. However, point-of-sale platforms must keep pace with this product complexity, and mortgage companies are increasingly turning to dynamic app configurations that eliminate the need for custom coding or lengthy development cycles. Capital markets teams are also modernizing their hedge operations through AI-powered tools that provide real-time visibility into margin performance, reduce manual work, and improve settlement accuracy. Servicing portfolios are evolving from back-office functions into strategic customer intelligence hubs, with firms using advanced data infrastructure to identify emerging borrower needs before they appear in traditional data sets. Lenders that invest in these operational tools and data capabilities are positioning themselves to remain competitive in an increasingly complex origination and servicing landscape. Fraud detection is becoming an essential early-stage screening tool as mortgage fraud grows more sophisticated and subtle. New solutions that centralize fraud risk scoring and property research into user-friendly dashboards allow underwriters to investigate potential issues faster without navigating multiple vendor portals. Settlement risk is also declining as lenders improve reporting accuracy and internalize TBA trading operations, reducing back-office work and operational complexity. These infrastructure improvements—from dynamic application platforms to AI-assisted margin management to consolidated fraud monitoring—represent the operational investments that separate efficient lenders from struggling competitors. The mortgage industry is shifting from manual, disconnected processes toward integrated, intelligent workflows that deliver faster decisions and lower operational costs. Today's calendar brings several data releases and events that could move rates further: mortgage applications data has already come in down 3.8 percent week-over-week, April Business Inventories, May Pending Home Sales, weekly crude oil inventories, and the June Federal Open Market Committee rate decision are all scheduled. Markets are also monitoring the Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement set to be formally signed on June 19, which could reshape energy price expectations and inflation outlook over the next several quarters. Chair Warsh's first press conference following the Fed decision will be the most closely watched event, as traders decode whether his communication strategy mirrors his predecessors or signals a material shift in the central bank's bias. Benchmark Treasury yields have edged 2 to 3 basis points lower while MBS prices gained roughly a quarter point, reflecting modest risk-off sentiment ahead of these catalysts. The combination of strong retail sales, technical resistance in yields, and uncertainty around Fed messaging creates a day of significant positioning decisions for mortgage originators and capital markets teams. **Locking vs Floating** Borrowers and originators holding 4.57 percent lock ceilings should monitor whether the 10-year yield definitively breaks below 4.42 percent before committing to floating positions. Yesterday's technical test at 4.42 percent generated multiple bounces, signaling trader caution about pushing yields lower without confirmation. A decisive break below 4.42 percent—backed by Fed dovishness or weaker economic data—would justify floating; a retreat back above 4.50 percent would favor locking. Today's FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's messaging are the primary catalysts that could break this technical standoff. Until the 10-year yield definitively resolves above or below current resistance levels, risk-management discipline suggests a cautious stance rather than aggressive floating. **Today's Events** Retail Sales (May): 0.9% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.5% prior Retail Sales Control Group MoM (May): 0.7% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.5% prior April Business Inventories May Pending Home Sales Weekly Crude Oil Inventories June Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.5 | 0.06 | | 5.5 | 100.46 | 0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.2 | 0.02 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.89 | -0.07 | | 5.5 | 100.66 | -0.1 | | 6.0 | 102.01 | -0.14 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.064 | 99.64 | 0.011 | | 3 yr | 4.101 | 98.319 | 0.008 | | 5 yr | 4.165 | 98.703 | 0.004 | | 7 yr | 4.289 | 99.766 | -0.004 | | 10 yr | 4.433 | 97.534 | -0.005 | | 30 yr | 4.926 | 97.251 | -0.018 | Market Data
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Mortgage Today (PM) – 06/16/26

June 16th, 2026|0 Comments

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Mortgage Today (AM) – 06/16/26

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