Well That Makes Sense – Page 2 – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/11/26

Week In Review
February 11, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/11/2026 Mortgage bonds are enjoying their best levels in weeks as traders brace for Friday's Consumer Price Index report. The UMBS 5.5 coupon held steady at 101.32 while the 6.0 coupon gained slightly to 102.42. January's employment data delivered mixed signals, with payrolls crushing forecasts at 130,000 new jobs versus the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from December's 4.4%, beating expectations of holding steady. Average earnings climbed 0.4% monthly, exceeding the 0.3% forecast and signaling persistent wage pressures. Labor force participation ticked up to 62.5%, suggesting more Americans are actively seeking work. Treasury yields surged across the curve as bond markets absorbed the stronger-than-expected jobs data. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 4.7 basis points to 4.191%, while shorter-term rates saw even larger increases. The 2-year yield spiked 6.8 basis points to 3.522%, reflecting expectations for potential Fed policy adjustments. Locking vs Floating Despite the stronger employment numbers, bond markets showed surprising resilience with only a modest sell-off. However, lopsided jobs reports tend to establish momentum patterns that can persist through subsequent trading sessions. Floating carries above-average risk given this dynamic, especially with Friday's CPI data looming as the next major market catalyst. Today's Events - Average earnings mm (Jan): 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous - Non Farm Payrolls (Jan): 130K vs 70K forecast, 50K previous - Participation Rate (Jan): 62.5% vs -- forecast, 62.4% previous - Unemployment rate mm (Jan): 4.3% vs 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.92 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 101.32 | 0 | | 6.0 | 102.42 | 0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.13 | -0.08 | | 5.5 | 101.27 | 0.03 | | 6.0 | 102.08 | -0.18 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.522 | 99.957 | 0.068 | | 3 yr | 3.584 | 99.763 | 0.07 | | 5 yr | 3.762 | 99.946 | 0.06 | | 7 yr | 3.971 | 100.174 | 0.057 | | 10 yr | 4.191 | 98.451 | 0.047 | | 30 yr | 4.821 | 96.902 | 0.021 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/10/26

Week In Review
February 10, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/10/2026 Mortgage markets are rallying after a volatile start, with bonds taking a pre-NFP lead-off as traders position ahead of Wednesday's critical employment report. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 4.151% following weaker-than-expected economic data releases. GNMA securities are leading the recovery with impressive gains across all coupons, while UMBS pricing shows mixed performance. Employment costs for Q4 came in lower than forecasted at 0.7% versus the expected 0.8%, providing relief to bond markets concerned about wage inflation. December retail sales disappointed completely, showing 0% growth against a 0.4% forecast, with the control group actually declining 0.1%. These softer economic readings suggest less inflationary pressure, which typically benefits mortgage-backed securities and could translate to better pricing for originators. GNMA 30-year securities are the clear outperformers this morning, with the 6.0 coupon gaining 21 basis points and strong performance across the board. Treasury yields are declining across the entire curve, with the 30-year bond down 6.4 basis points to 4.796%. This yield environment creates favorable conditions for mortgage pricing improvements throughout the day. The market's attention now shifts to Wednesday's jobs report, which represents the biggest potential volatility day for the week ahead. Some speculation exists that employment numbers may come in softer than expected, though analysts caution against reading too much into early commentary. The gradual overnight strength followed by additional post-data gains suggests positive technical momentum heading into the week's main event. Locking vs Floating Wednesday's jobs report will be the focal point for mortgage market volatility this week. Current market momentum favors floating for deals with flexible closing timelines, but originators should prepare for potential Wednesday volatility that could quickly reverse today's gains. MBS pricing provides better intraday risk management, while Treasury yield levels help track broader bond market momentum. Consider your pipeline's risk tolerance when making lock decisions ahead of Wednesday's employment data. Today's Events - Employment costs Q4: 0.7% vs 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous - Import prices (Dec): 0.1% vs 0.1% forecast - Retail Sales (Dec): 0% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous - Retail Sales Control Group (Dec): -0.1% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.09 | 0.08 | | 5.5 | 101.44 | -0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.5 | 0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.31 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 101.33 | 0.1 | | 6.0 | 102.42 | 0.21 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.452 | 100.092 | -0.034 | | 3 yr | 3.518 | 99.95 | -0.039 | | 5 yr | 3.698 | 100.235 | -0.045 | | 7 yr | 3.914 | 100.523 | -0.05 | | 10 yr | 4.149 | 98.79 | -0.058 | | 30 yr | 4.796 | 97.301 | -0.064 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/09/26

Week In Review
February 9, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/09/2026 The Trump Administration's potential antitrust investigation into homebuilders sent housing stocks tumbling Friday, though the market concentration claims appear questionable. With D.R. Horton selling 85,000 homes and Lennar moving 82,000 units against a total market of 737,000 new home sales, the fragmentation suggests this move targets housing affordability pressure rather than true monopoly concerns. Mortgage originators should watch this closely as any regulatory pressure on builders could impact new construction lending pipelines. Meanwhile, the House prepares to vote on bipartisan housing affordability measures including higher multifamily loan limits and enhanced construction loan support. These programs could create new origination opportunities for lenders positioned in the construction and rehab space. Eight Senate Democrats are pushing back hard against the CFPB's proposed elimination of disparate impact enforcement under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. Led by Senators Warnock and Warren, they warn that removing this 50-year standard would enable discrimination and worsen housing affordability across mortgage, credit card, and auto lending. This regulatory uncertainty adds another compliance consideration for originators already navigating changing enforcement priorities. Home equity positions show nearly 45% of mortgaged homeowners are equity-rich, owing less than half their home's value as of Q4. However, this wealth concentration is slipping from its Q2 2024 peak of 49.2%, while seriously underwater properties ticked up to 3.0%. These trends impact refinance volumes and cash-out opportunities for mortgage professionals. Consumer sentiment data released today shows improvement with February readings of 57.3 versus the 55 forecast, while inflation expectations declined to 3.5% for one-year and held steady at 3.4% for five-year outlooks. MBS markets are showing potential signs of GSE buying activity as mortgage-backed securities outperform treasuries. Locking vs Floating Thursday's labor market data created serious bond movement, with next Wednesday's jobs report positioned as the key catalyst to either confirm the recent breakout or signal a return to previous ranges. Lenders who didn't see positive repricing Friday afternoon may have a few ticks of protection heading into Monday's rate sheets, though weekend geopolitical volatility presents elevated risk. The tactical overnight float opportunity that worked perfectly for some lenders continues on a smaller scale, but requires careful risk assessment given upcoming employment data. Today's Events - Consumer Sentiment (Feb): 57.3 vs 55 forecast, 56.4 previous - Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Feb): 3.5% vs 4% previous - Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Feb): 3.4% vs 3.3% previous - U Mich conditions (Feb): 58.3 vs 54.9 forecast, 55.4 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.03 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.49 | 0 | | 6.0 | 102.52 | -0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.15 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.21 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.29 | 0.04 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.481 | 100.036 | -0.015 | | 3 yr | 3.555 | 99.846 | -0.012 | | 5 yr | 3.749 | 100.003 | -0.004 | | 7 yr | 3.974 | 100.158 | 0.002 | | 10 yr | 4.212 | 98.284 | 0.007 | | 30 yr | 4.867 | 96.204 | 0.015 | Market Data

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