WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/16/2026

Mortgage applications exploded by 28.5% last week as consumers returned from holiday break to find lower rates. The 30-year fixed rate dropped from 6.25% to 6.18%, triggering the strongest refinance surge since October. Purchase applications jumped 16% and are running 13% ahead of last year.

This surge shows what happens when rates move lower – even a small drop creates immediate demand. Refinance applications skyrocketed 40% in just one week and are running 128% higher than the same period last year. The MBA credits Trump’s announcement of increased GSE MBS purchases for driving rates down.

HUD is proposing to eliminate the disparate impact rule in fair lending, which could level the playing field for lenders. This rule has been controversial since the Obama administration because it allows regulators to find discrimination based on statistical analysis alone, without proving intent. The proposal would require actual proof of discriminatory intent rather than just statistical anomalies.

Manufacturing data from Philadelphia Fed and Empire State surveys shows improving activity. New orders turned positive in the Philly survey while New York shipments hit their highest level in a year. These reports suggest the economy remains resilient, reducing recession fears.

Foreclosure activity increased 14% in 2025 according to ATTOM, though it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. CEO Rob Barber says this reflects market normalization rather than widespread distress. Florida, South Carolina, and Delaware reported the highest foreclosure rates.

Locking vs Floating

Today’s risk/reward profile is balanced heading into the weekend. Lenders who repriced for yesterday’s improvement are vulnerable to today’s weakness. GSE MBS purchases provide some cushion for risk-tolerant clients, but broader bond market weakness and proximity to multi-year rate lows favor locking for conservative borrowers.

Today’s Events

– Industrial Production (Dec): 0.4% vs 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
– Fed speakers throughout the day (Collins, Bowman, Jefferson)
– NAHB Housing Market Index for January

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.15 | -0.03 |
| 5.5 | 101.35 | -0.03 |
| 6.0 | 102.32 | -0.04 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.93 | -0.09 |
| 5.5 | 101.06 | 0.04 |
| 6.0 | 101.95 | -0.05 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.585 | 99.837 | 0.019 |
| 10 yr | 4.187 | 98.482 | 0.014 |
| 30 yr | 4.802 | 97.21 | 0.004 |