WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/21/2026
Mortgage markets are finding temporary calm after last week’s brutal selloff, but relief remains elusive for originators. UMBS securities posted modest gains with the 5.5 coupon up 6 ticks to 101.18, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped slightly to 4.283%. This sideways trading pattern follows a challenging period that saw rates spike across all mortgage products.
The MBA delivered mixed signals with purchase applications climbing to 194.1 from 184.6 last week. More encouraging for originators, the refinance index surged to 1580.8 from 1313.1, suggesting borrowers are finally responding to recent rate movements. These activity levels indicate some stabilization in loan pipeline volume after weeks of uncertainty.
Treasury yields retreated modestly across the curve, with the 10-year note down 13 basis points and the 30-year bond yielding 4.911%. GNMA securities outperformed conventional mortgages, with the 5.0 coupon gaining 24 ticks to 99.63. This government-backed strength often signals institutional demand returning to the mortgage market.
Market participants remain cautious heading into the remainder of the week. The overnight session showed choppy, sideways movement with little directional conviction from traders. Geopolitical risks continue to influence bond positioning, creating an environment where negative news could trigger faster selloffs than positive developments might generate rallies.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions favor a defensive approach to rate commitments. Bond markets positioned for geopolitical risk over the long weekend but apparently insufficient preparation, creating asymmetric risk patterns. Rallies are likely to be modest and gradual, while potential selloffs could accelerate quickly.
This risk assessment suggests locking loans with shorter closing timelines while carefully monitoring pipeline exposure for floating positions.
Today’s Events
– MBA Purchase Index (Jan 16): 194.1 vs 184.6 previous
– MBA Refi Index (Jan 16): 1580.8 vs 1313.1 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.8 | 0.08 |
| 5.5 | 101.18 | 0.06 |
| 6.0 | 102.28 | 0.04 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.63 | 0.24 |
| 5.5 | 100.88 | 0.21 |
| 6.0 | 101.85 | 0.09 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.59 | 99.828 | -0.007 |
| 3 yr | 3.667 | 99.531 | -0.011 |
| 5 yr | 3.848 | 98.994 | -0.005 |
| 7 yr | 4.061 | 98.122 | -0.011 |
| 10 yr | 4.283 | 97.721 | -0.013 |
| 30 yr | 4.911 | 95.541 | -0.005 |
