WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/23/2026
Mortgage markets are treading water this morning as economic data provides mixed signals but little dramatic movement. UMBS prices show minimal changes with the 5.0 coupon up 3 basis points while the 6.0 coupon dipped 2 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.241%, down slightly from yesterday’s close as overnight gains evaporated at market open.
Consumer sentiment jumped to 56.4, well above the 54.0 forecast, suggesting Americans feel more optimistic about economic conditions. However, inflation expectations remain elevated with consumers expecting 4.0% inflation over the next year, though this came in below the 4.2% forecast. This data creates a complex picture for Fed policy makers as they balance growth concerns with persistent inflation worries.
Manufacturing and services PMI readings came in near expectations but failed to provide clear direction for bond markets. The composite PMI of 52.8 shows continued economic expansion above the 50 threshold, while the services PMI of 52.5 matched expectations but fell short of the 52.8 forecast. These mixed readings contribute to today’s sideways market action.
Geopolitical tensions appear to be easing after Wednesday’s Greenland de-escalation news, removing some of the asymmetric risk that pressured markets earlier this week. Bonds have remained relatively flat since the Tuesday sell-off, with traders waiting for either more selling pressure or significant economic deterioration to drive the next major move. With no major data releases on the horizon until February, mortgage originators may see continued range-bound trading.
Locking vs Floating
Risk-averse clients should remain defensive until markets can rule out aftershocks from Tuesday’s bond sell-off. Geopolitical risks have begun to subside with potential Greenland tensions easing, helping to rebalance market dynamics. For meaningful movement toward lower rates, bond markets need either additional selling to create buyer entry points or legitimate deterioration in major economic indicators.
With no significant data scheduled until the first week of February, current defensive positioning makes sense for deals with longer closing timelines.
Today’s Events
– S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan): 52.8 vs 52.7 previous
– S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 51.9 vs 52.0 forecast, 51.8 previous
– S&P Global Services PMI (Jan): 52.5 vs 52.8 forecast, 52.5 previous
– Consumer Sentiment (Jan): 56.4 vs 54.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
– Sentiment 1-Year Inflation (Jan): 4.0% vs 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
– Sentiment 5-Year Inflation (Jan): 3.3% vs 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
– University of Michigan Conditions (Jan): 55.4 vs 52.4 forecast, 50.4 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.91 | 0.03 |
| 5.5 | 101.31 | 0.03 |
| 6.0 | 102.31 | -0.02 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.75 | -0.02 |
| 5.5 | 100.92 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 101.97 | 0.02 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.606 | 99.798 | -0.004 |
| 3 yr | 3.675 | 99.508 | -0.007 |
| 5 yr | 3.843 | 99.019 | -0.007 |
| 7 yr | 4.039 | 98.254 | 0.002 |
| 10 yr | 4.241 | 98.052 | -0.009 |
| 30 yr | 4.834 | 96.708 | 0.001 |
