WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/26/2026
Markets are starting fairly flat this morning following surprisingly strong durable goods data. Core CapEx came in at 0.7% versus the expected flat reading, while durable goods jumped 5.3% compared to the 3.7% forecast. UMBS prices remain stable with modest overnight gains, though the 10-year Treasury pulled back half a basis point after the data release.
Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Wednesday remains this week’s key event, with rate cut odds below 50% until at least June. Consumer sentiment showed broad-based improvement in January despite persistent inflation concerns, rising 3.5 index points across all demographics and income levels. However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below year-ago levels as Americans continue grappling with high prices and labor market uncertainty.
The mortgage industry faces mixed signals on multiple fronts this week. Senior homeowners reached a record $14.7 trillion in home equity during Q3 2025, representing a 1.9% quarterly increase that highlights untapped refinance potential. Meanwhile, ICE Mortgage Technology reports that lower rates pushed refinance activity and prepayments to 3.5-year highs, though late-stage delinquencies climbed to near multi-year peaks.
Industry groups are pushing for administrative relief on mortgage costs through reduced FHA premiums and simplified credit reporting requirements. Lenders warn that Trump’s proposed 10% credit card rate cap could backfire by tightening credit standards and reducing scores needed for mortgage qualification. The Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.3% in November, suggesting economic slowdown ahead despite strong Q3 GDP growth of 4.4%.
Locking vs Floating
Mortgage rates have protection against broader bond selloffs due to GSE MBS purchases, but early January established the lower rate range limit. Two scenarios could push rates meaningfully lower: significant selling that creates bond buyer entry points, or deterioration in major economic data. No big-ticket data appears on the horizon until February’s first week, leaving rates range-bound for now.
Today’s Events
Core CapEx (Nov): 0.7% vs — forecast, 0.5% previous
Durable goods (Nov): 5.3% vs 3.7% forecast, -2.2% previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.99 | 0.04 |
| 5.5 | 101.35 | 0.02 |
| 6.0 | 102.34 | 0 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.89 | 0 |
| 5.5 | 101.02 | 0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.1 | 0.01 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.592 | 99.824 | -0.006 |
| 3 yr | 3.654 | 99.567 | -0.006 |
| 5 yr | 3.812 | 99.155 | -0.012 |
| 7 yr | 4.001 | 98.481 | -0.024 |
| 10 yr | 4.201 | 98.369 | -0.029 |
| 30 yr | 4.791 | 97.366 | -0.039 |
