WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 01/27/2026
Markets are asking the key question this morning: Gap filled, time to sell? The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.212%, essentially flat overnight with just a 1 basis point decline. UMBS 5.0 coupons are holding steady at 100.17, showing resilience despite broader market pressure.
The ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 7.75K versus 8.0K previous, a slight miss that provided modest support to bond prices. MBS securities are outperforming Treasuries along with the shorter end of the yield curve. This relative strength in mortgage-backed securities offers some protection for originators against rate volatility.
However, the outlook for meaningful rate improvement remains challenging. Mortgage rates have established their lower limit in early January, and breaking below that range requires either significant Treasury market rallies or deteriorating economic data. The calendar shows no major data releases until the first week of February that could drive rates substantially lower.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions favor a cautious approach to rate risk. Mortgage rates maintain some insulation from broader bond sell-offs due to GSE MBS purchases, but this protection has limits. Without a substantial Treasury rally or weak economic data, the January lows likely represent the floor for mortgage rates in the near term.
MBS prices provide helpful intraday risk management, while 10-year yield levels help track broader bond market momentum. The market needs either more selling to create entry points for buyers or legitimate deterioration in major economic indicators to push rates meaningfully lower.
Today’s Events
– ADP Employment Change Weekly: 7.75K vs 8.0K prev
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.17 | 0.1 |
| 5.5 | 101.45 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.36 | 0.02 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.02 | 0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.07 | 0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.13 | 0.02 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.569 | 99.869 | -0.022 |
| 3 yr | 3.636 | 99.616 | -0.019 |
| 5 yr | 3.808 | 99.176 | -0.013 |
| 7 yr | 4.005 | 98.457 | -0.008 |
| 10 yr | 4.212 | 98.285 | -0.001 |
| 30 yr | 4.814 | 97.021 | 0.012 |
