WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 02/24/2026
Bonds are finding strength this morning as general risk aversion dominates trading sentiment amid trade-related uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield holds steady at 4.033% while mortgage-backed securities show modest declines across major coupons. This defensive positioning creates a more favorable environment for mortgage originators seeking stable pricing conditions.
Market movement remains subdued with overnight trading showing minimal volatility. UMBS prices declined by just 1-3 basis points while the 10-year yield increased a mere 0.8 basis points. Such contained movements suggest the bond market is consolidating within its current range, providing temporary insulation from dramatic rate swings.
Housing data painted a mixed picture with December home price indices showing cooling momentum. The FHFA Home Price Index rose only 0.1% monthly, well below the 0.3% forecast and previous month’s 0.6% gain. Case-Shiller’s 20-city index actually declined 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first negative reading in recent months.
Employment data from ADP’s weekly payrolls report showed modest improvement with 12.75k new jobs versus the previous week’s 10.25k. While this represents growth, the numbers remain relatively contained and unlikely to drive significant market reactions. The data supports the narrative of gradual economic normalization without triggering inflation concerns.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions favor cautious positioning as bonds maintain a stronger bias within their trading range. Trade-related announcements could quickly eliminate the current insulation from volatility, making timing unpredictable. Economic data would need to show significant strength to push rates meaningfully higher from current levels.
Consider locking deals with near-term closing dates given the potential for sudden policy-driven market shifts.
Today’s Events
– ADP Weekly Payrolls: 12.75k vs 10.25k previous
– Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Dec): 1.4% vs 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
– CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Dec): -0.1% vs — forecast, 0% previous
– FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Dec): 0.1% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
– FHFA Home Prices y/y (Dec): 1.8% vs — forecast, 1.9% previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.38 | -0.03 |
| 5.5 | 101.57 | -0.03 |
| 6.0 | 102.52 | -0.01 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.24 | 0.01 |
| 5.5 | 101.2 | -0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.13 | -0.04 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.456 | 100.085 | 0.016 |
| 3 yr | 3.46 | 100.113 | 0.016 |
| 5 yr | 3.594 | 100.71 | 0.008 |
| 7 yr | 3.794 | 101.259 | 0.01 |
| 10 yr | 4.033 | 99.728 | 0.001 |
| 30 yr | 4.688 | 98.984 | -0.016 |
