WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 02/26/2026
Mortgage bonds are holding steady near their strongest levels this week, offering originators a rare moment of stability in an otherwise volatile market. UMBS 30-year coupons posted modest gains across the board this morning, with the 5.0 coupon up 5 ticks while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.036%. This morning’s jobless claims data came in slightly above forecast at 212K, but continued claims surprised to the downside at 1,833K versus expectations of 1,860K.
The overnight session brought choppy but range-bound trading, with MBS prices climbing 2 ticks and the 10-year yield declining 0.7 basis points by 8:36 AM. Treasury yields compressed across the entire curve, with the 30-year bond showing the most movement at a decline of 2.1 basis points. GNMA securities mirrored UMBS performance, with 4.5 and 5.0 coupons each gaining 5 ticks while the 5.5 coupon dipped slightly.
The labor market continues to show resilience without overheating, which supports the current bond rally. Lower continued claims suggest fewer Americans remain on unemployment benefits, indicating job market strength. However, the modest uptick in initial claims prevents the data from signaling an economy that’s running too hot for comfort.
Markets are trading in a technical sweet spot where bonds feel somewhat insulated from negative surprises. The current environment resembles conditions from three weeks ago when strong economic data would have been needed to push rates meaningfully higher. Non-economic events could still shake things up if they’re significant enough, but for now the path of least resistance favors stability.
Locking vs Floating
Bonds are consolidating near their strongest recent levels this week, providing a favorable environment for originators with near-term closings. It would take surprisingly strong economic data to push rates meaningfully higher from current levels. Markets appear somewhat insulated compared to previous weeks, though large non-economic events could still trigger volatility.
The narrow trading range and positive MBS pricing suggest locking deals closing within 15-30 days makes sense.
Today’s Events
Continued Claims (Feb 14): 1,833K vs 1,860K forecast, 1,869K previous
Jobless Claims (Feb 21): 212K vs 215K forecast, 206K previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.31 | 0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.55 | 0.02 |
| 5.0 | 100.27 | 0.05 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.471 | 100.056 | -0.005 |
| 3 yr | 3.482 | 100.052 | -0.011 |
| 5 yr | 3.607 | 100.648 | -0.017 |
| 7 yr | 3.8 | 101.221 | -0.016 |
| 10 yr | 4.036 | 99.709 | -0.009 |
| 30 yr | 4.68 | 99.115 | -0.021 |
