WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/03/2026
Mortgage rates are getting crushed this morning as bonds face heavy selling pressure to start the new week. UMBS prices dropped sharply overnight with the 4.5 coupon down 48 basis points and MBS securities falling 9 ticks overall. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.106%, pushing mortgage pricing to its worst levels in recent sessions.
The overnight session delivered another round of intense selling across fixed income markets. Treasury yields rose across the entire curve with the 2-year up 8 basis points and longer-dated bonds showing similar weakness. This broad-based selling suggests a fundamental shift in market sentiment rather than isolated trading in one sector.
UMBS securities led the decline with lower coupons experiencing the steepest losses. The 4.5 coupon dropped 48 basis points while the 5.0 fell 34 basis points and the 5.5 declined 19 basis points. These price movements translate directly into higher mortgage rates for your borrowers, with rate sheets likely worsening throughout the day.
GNMA securities followed a similar pattern but showed slightly better resilience than their UMBS counterparts. The GNMA 4.5 coupon fell 41 basis points compared to 48 basis points for UMBS. This relative outperformance in government securities suggests some flight-to-quality dynamics may be at play beneath the surface selling.
The bond market headline says it all: “Big Bad Day For Bonds. What’s Next?” Traders are questioning whether this weakness stems from month-end rebalancing flows or represents a more sustained deterioration in the rate environment. With no major economic data on today’s calendar, geopolitical factors and technical trading patterns are driving the action.
Locking vs Floating
Last week’s warning about month-end trading strength proved prescient as March opened with aggressive selling pressure. The current session reflects excess supply hitting the market after artificially strong positioning at February’s close. Geopolitical tensions continue creating a volatile backdrop that could swing rates in either direction without warning.
Economic data releases scheduled for later this week should provide clearer directional signals than today’s technical trading. Until those reports arrive, the bond market lacks fundamental anchors to prevent momentum-driven moves. This environment favors protecting locked transactions rather than gambling on improvement.
Today’s Events
No economic data releases scheduled.
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.82 | -0.34 |
| 5.5 | 101.26 | -0.19 |
| 5.0 | 99.94 | -0.17 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.557 | 99.89 | 0.08 |
| 3 yr | 3.566 | 99.813 | 0.083 |
| 5 yr | 3.691 | 100.267 | 0.082 |
| 7 yr | 3.885 | 100.698 | 0.079 |
| 10 yr | 4.106 | 99.138 | 0.07 |
| 30 yr | 4.737 | 98.215 | 0.054 |
