WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/04/2026
Markets opened with relative calm this morning after recent turbulence rattled traders. UMBS 30-year securities showed modest gains with the 5.0 coupon up 9 basis points to 100.08 and the 4.5 coupon climbing to 98.25. These improvements could translate to slightly better rate sheets for borrowers if the momentum holds through the day.
The ADP Employment report came in at 63,000 jobs for February, slightly above the 50,000 forecast and significantly better than January’s revised 22,000. This private sector employment data serves as a preview to Friday’s more comprehensive jobs report. The modest beat didn’t shake markets dramatically, suggesting traders are holding their fire until more critical data arrives.
Treasury yields showed mixed movement across the curve with shorter-term notes declining while longer-term bonds edged higher. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 4 basis points to 4.073%, while the 2-year yield dropped 6 basis points to 3.506%. The 30-year bond yield rose 16 basis points to 4.72%, indicating some caution about long-term inflation expectations.
GNMA securities traded relatively flat with the 5.0 coupon up 6 basis points but the 4.5 and 5.5 coupons showing minimal movement. Markets are clearly in wait-and-see mode ahead of the ISM Services report due out later this morning. This services sector data could prove more influential than ADP given its broader economic implications.
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to inject volatility into bond markets alongside the steady stream of economic releases. Traders received a slight reprieve from recent selling pressure on Tuesday. However, the broader trend remains uncertain as markets digest conflicting signals about economic strength and Federal Reserve policy direction.
Locking vs Floating
Market volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions and incoming economic data that could swing rates quickly. Only risk-tolerant borrowers should consider floating based on Tuesday’s modest improvement in bond prices. Most originators should advise clients to lock and wait for clearer confirmation that the recent bond market selloff has genuinely stabilized before taking on additional rate risk.
Today’s Events
– ADP Employment: 63k vs 50k forecast, 22k previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.08 | 0.09 |
| 5.5 | 101.42 | 0.07 |
| 5.0 | 100.14 | 0.06 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.506 | 99.988 | -0.006 |
| 3 yr | 3.514 | 99.962 | -0.004 |
| 5 yr | 3.644 | 100.482 | 0.001 |
| 7 yr | 3.844 | 100.947 | 0.006 |
| 10 yr | 4.073 | 99.407 | 0.004 |
| 30 yr | 4.72 | 98.484 | 0.016 |
