WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/06/2026

Oil prices are drowning out what should have been a rally day for mortgage bonds. February nonfarm payrolls crashed to negative 92,000 jobs versus expectations of a 59,000 gain, marking the widest miss in over a year. But instead of bonds rallying sharply as they normally would, UMBS 5.0 coupons are down 18 basis points and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 4 basis points to 4.176 percent.

The culprit is crude oil’s relentless surge following the complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions are triggering inflation fears that are overpowering weak employment data. When oil spikes this dramatically, markets worry about inflation returning even as the labor market softens.

The jobs report showed unemployment ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, which somewhat offset the payroll disaster. Healthcare strikes distorted the February count according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average earnings grew 0.4 percent versus the 0.3 percent forecast, keeping year-over-year wage growth at 3.8 percent.

Bonds initially rallied at 8:30 AM when the data hit, with the 10-year dropping to 4.121 percent. By 10:09 AM that rally completely reversed as oil concerns reasserted control. This whipsaw action creates reprice risk for lenders still finalizing morning rate sheets.

The 10-year Treasury yield has traveled from 3.93 percent at year-start to a high of 4.31 percent, now settling near 4.18 percent after closing near 3.95 percent just last Friday. That 20-basis-point move in four days is unusually fast and reflects broader market repricing. Options traders are increasingly betting the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year rate at 6.00 percent for the week ending March 5, up 2 basis points from the prior week’s 5.98 percent low. That 5.98 percent marked the lowest level since September 2022. The 15-year rate fell 1 basis point to 5.43 percent.

Better.com is shaking up underwriting with a ChatGPT-powered app that cuts approval times from 21 days to just 47 seconds. The tool automates dozens of underwriting checks and targets rivals like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage. This technology could force the entire industry to accelerate digital transformation or risk losing market share.

United Wholesale Mortgage launched temporary pricing incentives including a 75-basis-point discount on eligible refinance loans through March. They’re also offering a $600 appraisal credit for eligible purchase loans through April. JPMorgan Chase simultaneously launched a limited-time rate sale through March 8 with personalized discounts that stack with other relationship pricing.

Morgan Stanley is cutting 2,500 jobs across divisions including mortgage origination services for wealth clients. The layoffs span 3 percent of their workforce despite reporting $70.6 billion in revenue and $16.9 billion in net income for 2025. Geographic strategy shifts and performance considerations are driving the restructuring.

Locking vs Floating

Volatility risk remains much higher than normal due to geopolitical uncertainty and incoming economic data. Recent bond market weakness received minimal support despite today’s catastrophic jobs miss. Only the most risk-tolerant clients should consider floating, while everyone else should wait for firmer evidence that the bleeding has stopped before making moves.

Today’s Events

Average earnings for February came in at 0.4 percent versus 0.3 percent forecast. Non Farm Payrolls for February printed at negative 92,000 versus 59,000 forecast. Participation Rate for February dropped to 62.0 percent versus 62.5 percent prior.

Retail Sales for January showed negative 0.2 percent versus negative 0.3 percent forecast. Retail Sales Control Group for January grew 0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent forecast. Unemployment rate for February rose to 4.4 percent versus 4.3 percent forecast.

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.63 | -0.18 |
| 5.5 | 101.2 | -0.07 |
| 5.0 | 99.91 | -0.12 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.567 | 99.872 | -0.017 |
| 3 yr | 3.6 | 99.719 | 0.004 |
| 5 yr | 3.745 | 100.024 | 0.017 |
| 7 yr | 3.951 | 100.298 | 0.027 |
| 10 yr | 4.172 | 98.604 | 0.036 |
| 30 yr | 4.797 | 97.282 | 0.043 |