WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/11/2026

Markets shrugged off the February CPI report this morning as inflation came in exactly as expected, with core prices rising 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.19%, up 3.3 basis points, while UMBS prices held roughly unchanged despite overnight weakness. The muted reaction reflects traders’ focus on future inflation risks from the Iran conflict rather than backward-looking February data that predates the recent oil price surge.

Mortgage prepayment speeds accelerated sharply in February, jumping 21% month-over-month to a 9.0 CPR as falling rates pushed roughly 20% of conventional borrowers into refinance territory. This marks the highest share of borrowers with refinance incentive since early 2022, particularly concentrated in 5.5% and 6.0% coupon pools. For originators, this means the refi pipeline should stay robust heading into spring, with analysts expecting another meaningful increase in prepayment speeds next month as seasonal factors build.

Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to a 4.09 million annual pace, marking the best affordability conditions since 2022 despite year-over-year sales declining for the third time in four months. The median home price increased just 0.3% annually to $398,000, with inventory edging up to 1.29 million homes and 3.8 months of supply. Purchase mortgage applications jumped 7.8% last week even as rates climbed 10 basis points to 6.19%, suggesting buyers may be rushing to lock before rates rise further amid geopolitical uncertainty.

loanDepot relaunched its wholesale lending channel after shutting it down in 2022, this time built on proprietary technology with industry veterans Dan Peña and Matt Mancasola leading the division. The move rounds out the company’s multi-channel strategy, though the lender faces mounting legal challenges including a new lawsuit from West Capital alleging illegal compensation practices that violated TILA rules. A separate class-action suit filed last July accuses loanDepot of steering customers into higher-rate loans before its 2021 IPO.

TransUnion slashed VantageScore 4.0 pricing to $0.99 per score for mortgage lenders, a dramatic discount compared to FICO’s $10 fee for 2026. The pricing war comes as credit report costs have surged up to 50% this year, though VantageScore adoption remains slow since lenders still lack GSE pricing grids tied to the alternative scoring model. Experian followed suit with price cuts last week while simultaneously raising FICO prices by roughly 3%, creating pressure on lenders to evaluate their credit scoring strategies.

Bond markets experienced renewed volatility yesterday driven by geopolitical uncertainty and a weak $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction that added to negative sentiment. Selling intensified late in the session after reports emerged that Iran was deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruption to global energy flows. The conflicting signals from the Trump administration about the Iran conflict unsettled investors already adjusting to expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts and higher persistent inflation.

Locking vs Floating

Volatility risk remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty despite today’s in-line CPI data. Markets are essentially ignoring February’s backward-looking inflation numbers and instead trading on oil price proxies for future inflation reports. For loans closing within 30 days, locking now provides protection against further rate deterioration as the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction at 1 PM ET could add pressure to yields.

Today’s Events

– February Core CPI: 0.2% month-over-month vs 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
– February Headline CPI: 0.3% month-over-month vs 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
– February Core CPI year-over-year: 2.5% vs 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
– February Headline CPI year-over-year: 2.4% vs 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
– 1:00 PM: $39 billion 10-year Treasury Note Auction

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.5 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 101.03 | 0.05 |
| 5.0 | 99.94 | -0.04 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.63 | 99.752 | 0.04 |
| 3 yr | 3.648 | 99.582 | 0.037 |
| 5 yr | 3.774 | 99.893 | 0.032 |
| 7 yr | 3.971 | 100.175 | 0.031 |
| 10 yr | 4.193 | 98.436 | 0.033 |
| 30 yr | 4.833 | 96.72 | 0.039 |