WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/13/2026
Mortgage rates spiked to 2026 highs this week as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel, creating inflationary headwinds that overwhelmed otherwise encouraging economic data. The 30-year fixed rate climbed 11 basis points to 6.11%, while the 15-year jumped 7 basis points to 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey. While rates remain 54 basis points lower than a year ago, the recent surge underscores how energy market volatility can override traditional fundamental drivers.
This morning’s economic data dump revealed a dramatically weaker Q4 GDP picture than initially reported, with growth slashed in half from 1.4% to just 0.7% annually. The downward revision affected all GDP components, with the government shutdown cited as a key drag on economic activity. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model badly missed the mark by predicting 5% growth, raising questions about forecasting accuracy amid volatile policy conditions.
January’s PCE inflation data came in exactly as expected, with core PCE rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, doing little to change the inflation narrative. Personal income rose 0.4% while disposable income jumped 0.9%, though spending increased only 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain cautious. The bigger market mover was core retail sales, which flatlined at 0% versus expectations of 0.5%, while durable goods orders also disappointed with zero growth against forecasts of 1.2%.
The Senate overwhelmingly passed landmark housing legislation yesterday in a rare display of bipartisan cooperation, with Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren co-sponsoring the bill. The legislation eases financing for manufactured housing by eliminating the permanent foundation requirement, which should improve affordability for entry-level buyers. The bill also directs the CFPB to report on loan officer compensation policies and point-and-fee caps, potentially signaling the first steps toward relaxing rules that make small-dollar loans unprofitable for many lenders.
However, the bill’s ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes drew criticism from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which warned it could limit build-for-rent supply and ultimately worsen affordability. The MBA’s concerns highlight the unintended consequences of policies targeting institutional buyers, as these investors have increasingly funded new construction inventory. Meanwhile, new FHA loss-mitigation rules are driving severe delinquencies sharply higher, jumping from 5.1% at year-end to 6.1% by February as borrowers are now limited to one home-retention option every 24 months.
Bond markets showed modest improvement this morning despite the data deluge, with UMBS prices up an eighth of a point and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 1.34 basis points to 4.252%. The muted reaction reflects how geopolitical risk has become the dominant pricing factor, overshadowing economic fundamentals. Oil prices pulled back slightly from overnight highs, providing some relief, but crude remains elevated as markets assess potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel strike on Iran.
Locking vs Floating
Volatility risk remains substantially elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with March proving consistently bearish for rates thus far. Core retail sales and GDP both missed expectations while PCE matched forecasts, creating modest downward pressure on yields this morning. However, the entire month has trended against borrowers, making defensive positioning prudent until the bearish momentum clearly levels off.
Pipeline protection should be the priority in this environment where reprices can happen in very short order. Next week’s FOMC meeting looms large, with markets focused less on the policy decision itself and more on Chair Powell’s tone and word choice regarding oil price impacts on inflation guidance. Given current conditions, locking transactions closing within 30 days appears advisable.
Today’s Events
Core Retail Sales (Jan): 0% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
Core PCE month-over-month (Jan): 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
Core PCE year-over-year (Jan): 3.1% vs 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
Durable Goods (Jan): 0% vs 1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
GDP Q4: 0.7% vs 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
GDP Final Sales Q4: 0.4% vs 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous
PCE year-over-year (Jan): 2.8% vs 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
PCE prices month-over-month (Jan): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.13 | 0.2 |
| 5.5 | 100.8 | 0.14 |
| 5.0 | 99.48 | -0.05 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.704 | 99.61 | -0.032 |
| 3 yr | 3.719 | 99.384 | -0.037 |
| 5 yr | 3.834 | 99.621 | -0.031 |
| 7 yr | 4.024 | 99.852 | -0.03 |
| 10 yr | 4.24 | 98.057 | -0.024 |
| 30 yr | 4.873 | 96.119 | -0.01 |
