WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/16/2026
Markets are showing modest improvement this morning after last week’s brutal selloff that pushed mortgage rates to a six-month high. UMBS prices gained a quarter point overnight while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.223%, down from Friday’s close of 4.29%. This morning’s stability comes despite weaker-than-expected Empire manufacturing data, which missed forecasts badly at -0.2 versus an expected 3.2.
The three-day rate surge that ended Friday was painful for originators watching deals fall apart. Mortgage rates rocketed from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% by Friday, marking the fastest three-day climb since early April 2025 and hitting levels not seen since last September. The culprit remains geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Iran war, with Brent crude topping $100 per barrel as concerns mount over the Strait of Hormuz potentially closing.
President Trump asked China for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquid natural gas supply. The diplomatic outreach makes sense given China’s heavy dependence on energy flowing through that channel. If successful, reduced oil price pressure could ease the inflation fears currently weighing on bonds.
This week’s FOMC meeting looms large, with policymakers facing an uncomfortable stagflation scenario as growth slows while inflation remains sticky. The Fed is universally expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, preserving flexibility amid massive uncertainty around energy prices. Markets that once priced in multiple rate cuts this year are now questioning whether we’ll see even one, especially with core PCE inflation ticking up to 3.1% year-over-year while Q4 GDP was revised sharply down to just 0.7%.
New executive orders targeting housing supply and mortgage access could reshape the origination landscape if implemented as outlined. The first order directs HUD and FHFA to cut regulatory barriers to home construction by streamlining permitting, scaling back green energy mandates, and easing restrictions on manufactured housing. The second order takes aim squarely at mortgage access by directing the CFPB to expand the qualified mortgage definition, potentially replace TRID timing rules, and create broader safe harbor for portfolio loans while modernizing appraisals through AI and automated valuation models.
Industry reaction to the executive orders has been cautiously optimistic, with MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit welcoming reduced compliance costs but emphasizing that benefits should extend to all lenders, not just banks. These changes could significantly impact how you structure and process loans in coming months. Meanwhile, Redfin research shows private listings and “coming soon” properties could boost available inventory by 12%, offering a potential lifeline in markets still constrained by tight supply.
Locking vs Floating
Geopolitical volatility remains the dominant risk factor, with March proving bearish for rates across the board. Given the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and Wednesday’s Fed decision, defensive posturing makes sense until the bearish streak clearly levels off. If you have borrowers closing within 30 days, locking now protects against further geopolitical shocks that could push rates higher.
Today’s Events
NY Fed Manufacturing (March): -0.2 vs 3.2 forecast, 7.1 previous
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (February): Released later today
NAHB Housing Market Index (March): Released later today
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.43 |
| 5.0 | 99.20 | 0.31 |
| 5.5 | 100.85 | 0.21 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 4.5 | 97.16 | 0.24 |
| 5.0 | 99.62 | 0.27 |
| 5.5 | 100.79 | 0.08 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.682 | 99.653 | -0.048 |
| 3 yr | 3.692 | 99.460 | -0.056 |
| 5 yr | 3.806 | 99.745 | -0.048 |
| 7 yr | 4.003 | 99.982 | -0.058 |
| 10 yr | 4.223 | 98.198 | -0.059 |
| 30 yr | 4.858 | 96.343 | -0.044 |
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