WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 03/24/2026

Mortgage markets are proving the cynics right as the Iran ceasefire rebound has already died. UMBS 5.0 prices dropped to 98.03, down 36 basis points from yesterday’s close. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.406%, completely erasing Monday morning’s gains despite oil prices remaining lower.

Labor costs came in much worse than expected at 4.4% versus the 3.5% forecast. This inflationary data is pushing investors toward the Federal Reserve potentially raising rates rather than cutting them. Futures markets now see nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by October.

President Trump’s signals about productive talks with Iran lost their market impact after Iran denied substantive discussions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Persian Gulf allies may join the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Tehran. Markets remain on “hyper alert” for the next geopolitical development.

Construction spending disappointed at -0.2% versus the 0.1% forecast. This economic weakness contrasts sharply with the stubborn inflation readings from labor costs. The mixed signals are creating the choppy trading conditions we’re seeing across bond markets today.

Locking vs Floating

Today’s market action demonstrates extreme volatility tied to war developments and inflation concerns. Bonds showed proof of concept that Iran de-escalation can drive gains, but those moves reversed quickly. Analysts recommend remaining cautious and defensive until a clear trend of de-escalation emerges with sustained bond market response.

Today’s Events

– Construction Spending: -0.2% vs 0.1% forecast
– Labor Costs: 4.4% vs 3.5% forecast
– ADP Employment Change: 4-week average increases to 10K
– New Home Sales data expected

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 98.03 | -0.36 |
| 5.5 | 100 | -0.23 |
| 6.0 | 101.68 | -0.08 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 98.53 | -0.28 |
| 5.5 | 100.17 | -0.15 |
| 6.0 | 101.45 | -0.08 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.904 | 99.231 | 0.052 |
| 5 yr | 4.027 | 98.755 | 0.056 |
| 10 yr | 4.406 | 96.748 | 0.059 |
| 30 yr | 4.966 | 94.717 | 0.045 |

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