# WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 04/03/2026
Bonds are showing renewed strength this morning as oil price hopes fuel a recovery following earlier weakness, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing 1.2 basis points to 4.317% as markets digest mixed employment signals. The combination of higher Challenger layoffs in March hitting 60,620 versus the previous 48,307 and lower-than-expected jobless claims at 202K suggests a labor market in transition. UMBS coupons are trading slightly weaker across the curve with 5.0% coupons at 98.81, down 10 basis points, while GNMA securities are showing similar softness.
The market is positioning defensively ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report and the holiday-shortened Good Friday trading session. Employment data this morning painted a nuanced picture that’s keeping bond traders cautious about making aggressive moves in either direction. Challenger layoffs surged to their highest level since last summer, indicating potential corporate belt-tightening ahead, while initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 202K from 212K forecasted.
Continued claims ticked slightly higher to 1,841K, barely above the 1,840K estimate but up from the prior 1,819K reading. These mixed signals are creating uncertainty about labor market direction just as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy moves. Oil price futures for distant delivery months are expressing cautious optimism for Middle East de-escalation, providing some support for risk assets including mortgage-backed securities.
However, the bond market’s recent volatility has mortgage professionals maintaining defensive positioning strategies until clearer directional signals emerge. The 10-year yield’s movement above 4.30% represents a key technical level that many market participants are watching closely. Geopolitical tensions continue to create an environment where sudden reversals remain possible.
Mortgage originators are facing a challenging pricing environment as the gap between mortgage rates and underlying Treasury yields remains elevated due to credit spread concerns. The current UMBS 5.5% coupon at 100.63 reflects continued investor caution about mortgage credit quality despite strong home price appreciation in most markets. Production margins remain compressed as lenders compete for a smaller pool of qualified borrowers in the current rate environment.
Secondary market liquidity has improved modestly but remains below historical norms, contributing to wider bid-ask spreads. The upcoming jobs report on Friday carries outsized importance for mortgage markets, with economists expecting continued moderation in hiring pace and wage growth. Any significant deviation from expectations could trigger volatile moves in both Treasury and mortgage-backed security markets during the abbreviated trading session.
Market participants are particularly focused on labor force participation rates and average hourly earnings data for clues about inflationary pressures. The holiday weekend adds an element of position-squaring that could amplify moves in either direction. Looking ahead to next week, the combination of fresh economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments will likely keep volatility elevated across fixed-income markets.
Mortgage professionals should prepare for continued rate volatility as markets digest the employment picture and assess Federal Reserve policy implications. The technical setup in both Treasury and mortgage markets suggests that a break above or below current trading ranges could lead to accelerated moves. Careful attention to intraday price action and news flow will be essential for optimal timing decisions.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions favor a defensive approach with most clients maintaining protective strategies until bond markets demonstrate more consistent strength. Additional volatility is expected into Friday’s jobs report combined with the holiday-shortened trading session for Good Friday. While some risk-takers may sense opportunity in oil price hopes for de-escalation, the average client should wait for more convincing bond market improvement before abandoning defensive positioning.
Today’s Events
– Challenger layoffs (March): 60.62K vs 48.307K previous
– Continued Claims (March 21): 1,841K vs 1,840K forecast, 1,819K previous
– Jobless Claims (March 28): 202K vs 212K forecast, 210K previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intraday Change |
| 5.0 | 98.81 | -0.1 |
| 5.5 | 100.63 | -0.07 |
| 6.0 | 102.04 | -0.07 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intraday Change |
| 5.0 | 99.19 | -0.08 |
| 5.5 | 100.79 | -0.05 |
| 6.0 | 101.77 | -0.06 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intraday Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.82 | 99.39 | 0.017 |
| 3 yr | 3.843 | 99.036 | 0.014 |
| 5 yr | 3.963 | 99.041 | 0.018 |
| 7 yr | 4.141 | 99.149 | 0.014 |
| 10 yr | 4.319 | 97.433 | 0.011 |
| 30 yr | 4.893 | 95.803 | 0.015 |
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