WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/05/2026

Bond markets are officially back from holiday mode after trading volume surpassed recent full trading days by 10am. MBS securities posted modest gains while the 10-year Treasury yield declined 2 basis points to 4.17 percent. Manufacturing data came in slightly weaker than expected but failed to create significant market movement.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9 from 48.2, missing the 48.3 forecast and marking the lowest reading since October 2024. Factory employment improved to 44.9 from 44.0 but headcount has now shrunk for eleven consecutive months. Despite these concerning trends, materials costs remain elevated with the prices-paid index holding steady at 58.5.

Weekend events in Venezuela generated headlines but had virtually no impact on bond pricing. Both stocks and bonds shrugged off the geopolitical developments, suggesting markets are focused on domestic economic factors. Gold climbed above $4,400 per ounce while the dollar posted its biggest gain since November.

Mortgage rates ended 2025 at their lowest level of the year according to Freddie Mac data. The 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.15 percent from 6.18 percent the prior week, down significantly from 6.91 percent one year ago. The 15-year fixed rate also declined to 5.44 percent, providing some relief for potential homebuyers entering 2026.

Locking vs Floating

Bond markets are transitioning out of holiday trading patterns with increased participation expected this week. Friday’s jobs report represents the next major volatility risk, making current price levels attractive for loans closing within two weeks. Manufacturing data suggests continued economic softening but hasn’t moved rates meaningfully yet.

Today’s Events

– ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec): 44.9 vs 44.0 previous
– ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.9 vs 48.3 forecast, 48.2 previous
– ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Dec): 58.5 vs 59.0 forecast, 58.5 previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.75 | 0.08 |
| 5.5 | 101.44 | 0.08 |
| 6.0 | 102.69 | 0 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.78 | 0.11 |
| 5.5 | 101.04 | 0.07 |
| 6.0 | 101.98 | 0.04 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.461 | 100.075 | -0.014 |
| 3 yr | 3.528 | 99.922 | -0.018 |
| 5 yr | 3.715 | 99.591 | -0.031 |
| 7 yr | 3.93 | 98.905 | -0.032 |
| 10 yr | 4.171 | 98.613 | -0.02 |
| 30 yr | 4.859 | 96.319 | -0.012 |