WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/13/2026
December CPI data delivered a rare bright spot for mortgage originators this afternoon. Core inflation came in at 0.2% monthly versus the expected 0.3%, while annual core inflation held at 2.6% against forecasts of 2.7%. The better-than-expected numbers sparked an immediate rally in mortgage-backed securities.
UMBS prices jumped more than a quarter point within minutes of the 8:30 AM release. The benchmark 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon climbed to 100.15, up 19 basis points from yesterday’s close. This translates to meaningful rate improvement for borrowers applying today.
Treasury markets echoed the positive sentiment with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.16% from yesterday’s 4.19% close. The 2-year note also declined, falling 6 basis points to 3.53%. When both short and long-term rates move lower together, it signals broad market confidence in cooling inflation.
President Trump’s recent call for GSEs to purchase $200 billion in MBS is providing additional tailwind to mortgage securities. Lower-coupon UMBS bonds continue outperforming as refinancing activity could accelerate if rates drop further. The convergence of policy support and favorable inflation data creates a rare positive environment for loan originators.
Locking vs Floating
Mortgage rates held steady over the weekend before today’s CPI-driven improvement. Price volatility in MBS is settling relative to Treasuries, restoring normal correlations between bond and mortgage markets. Tuesday’s event risk around CPI release created two-way volatility that ultimately favored rate improvements.
MBS gains of over 25 basis points and 10-year yields down 16 basis points at 4.16% represent solid momentum. This data confirms inflation remains roughly where markets expected before recent government shutdown disruptions. Current rate improvements may persist if upcoming economic releases continue showing cooling price pressures.
Today’s Events
– 8:30 AM: December Core CPI – 0.2% vs 0.3% forecast
– 8:30 AM: December Headline CPI – 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast
– 8:30 AM: December Annual Core CPI – 2.6% vs 2.7% forecast
– 8:30 AM: December Annual Headline CPI – 2.7% vs 2.7% forecast
– 1:00 PM: 30-Year Bond Auction
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.11 | 0.14 |
| 5.5 | 101.34 | 0.14 |
| 6.0 | 102.41 | 0.01 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.09 | 0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.04 | 0.02 |
| 6.0 | 102.09 | 0.02 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.528 | 99.946 | -0.009 |
| 3 yr | 3.588 | 99.752 | -0.005 |
| 5 yr | 3.747 | 99.447 | -0.014 |
| 7 yr | 3.949 | 98.792 | -0.013 |
| 10 yr | 4.176 | 98.576 | -0.003 |
| 30 yr | 4.836 | 96.677 | 0.008 |
