WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/15/2026
Markets stumbled today as jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below expectations and suggesting a tighter labor market than anticipated. UMBS prices dropped across all coupons, with the benchmark 5.0 falling 16 basis points to 100.24. This stronger-than-expected employment data pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year climbing to 4.16%.
The Trump Administration is preparing to issue an executive order allowing homebuyers to tap into 401k and 529 savings accounts for down payments while preventing institutions from owning single-family homes. However, a more effective approach might be implementing negative loan-level pricing adjustments (LLPAs) for first-time buyers through FHFA and HUD. This could provide 50 basis points in savings for first-time buyers, with an additional 50 basis points for those earning less than 115% of area median income.
Existing home sales rose 5.1% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million, marking the strongest December performance in nearly three years. The median home price remained flat at $405,400, while inventory stayed tight at just 3.5 months of supply. With the spring selling season approaching around Super Bowl Sunday, more inventory is expected to hit the market in February.
A significant shift is occurring in mortgage demographics, with more homeowners now holding mortgages above 6% than below 3%, according to Reventure data. This signals the gradual erosion of the rate lock-in effect that has constrained housing market activity for years. For mortgage originators, this means increased refinancing opportunities and more transaction volume ahead.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions suggest asymmetric risk for the lock/float decision. While lenders may have cushion to absorb minor weakness, they appear reluctant to drop rates below current levels without a significant bond rally. The absence of rate improvements despite earlier bond market gains indicates caution is warranted for deals closing within the next few days.
Today’s Events
– Continued Claims (Jan)/03: 1,884K vs 1890K forecast, 1914K previous
– Jobless Claims (Jan)/10: 198K vs 215K forecast, 208K previous
– NY Fed Manufacturing (Jan): 7.70 vs 1 forecast, -3.90 previous
– Philly Fed Business Index (Jan): 12.6 vs -2 forecast, -10.2 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.22 | -0.18 |
| 5.5 | 101.39 | -0.13 |
| 6.0 | 102.31 | -0.14 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.96 | -0.19 |
| 5.5 | 100.97 | -0.17 |
| 6.0 | 101.93 | -0.06 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.55 | 99.905 | 0.034 |
| 3 yr | 3.601 | 99.715 | 0.039 |
| 5 yr | 3.75 | 99.436 | 0.042 |
| 7 yr | 3.941 | 98.843 | 0.034 |
| 10 yr | 4.152 | 98.769 | 0.02 |
| 30 yr | 4.783 | 97.492 | 0.001 |
