WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/22/2026
Bond markets showed remarkable resilience today, erasing most of their overnight weakness despite a heavy slate of economic data releases. UMBS securities recovered from morning lows, with the 5.0 coupon settling down just 5 basis points at 99.88. The 10-year Treasury yield closed essentially flat at 4.242%, a stark contrast to the early morning selloff that pushed rates higher by nearly 2 basis points.
Market participants largely shrugged off today’s mixed economic data, including stronger-than-expected GDP growth and corporate profits. Jobless claims came in at 200K, well below the 212K forecast, signaling continued labor market strength that typically pressures bond prices. However, continued claims improved to 1,849K from 1,884K, providing some offsetting relief.
The afternoon recovery gained momentum as geopolitical tensions continued to ease following Wednesday’s potential Greenland de-escalation. This risk-off environment has created more balanced conditions after Tuesday’s sharp selloff rattled markets. For mortgage originators, this stability provides better pricing predictability heading into tomorrow’s session.
Core PCE inflation data met expectations at 2.90% for Q3, but the reading remains uncomfortably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Corporate profits surged 4.7% versus the 4.4% forecast, while GDP was revised higher to 4.4% from the initial 4.3% estimate. These strong fundamentals could support higher rates over time, though markets showed little immediate reaction.
Locking vs Floating
Current conditions favor a defensive approach for risk-averse originators managing pipeline exposure. Geopolitical tensions have eased since Wednesday, creating more balanced asymmetric risk where rally potential may outweigh selling pressure in the near term. However, with no major economic data on the horizon until early February, markets need either significant selling to create buyer entry points or genuine deterioration in key economic indicators to push rates meaningfully lower.
For clients with immediate closing needs, the recent stability provides a reasonable locking environment. Those with longer timelines may benefit from the reduced geopolitical premium, though inflation readings above Fed targets warrant continued vigilance. The bond market’s ability to erase early weakness suggests underlying demand remains intact despite strong economic data.
Today’s Events
– Continued Claims (Jan 10): 1,849K vs 1,884K previous
– Core PCE Prices Q3: 2.90% vs 2.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
– Corporate Profits Q3: 4.7% vs 4.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
– GDP Q3: 4.4% vs 4.3% forecast, 3.8% previous
– GDP Final Sales Q3: 4.5% vs 4.6% forecast, 7.5% previous
– Jobless Claims (Jan 17): 200K vs 212K forecast, 198K previous
– PCE Prices Q3: 2.8% vs 2.8% forecast, 2.1% previous
– Core PCE (m/m) November: 0.2% vs 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
– Core PCE (y/y) November: 2.8% vs 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
– PCE (y/y) November: 2.8% vs 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
– PCE prices (m/m) November: 0.2% vs 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.88 | -0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.28 | -0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.33 | -0.05 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.78 | -0.01 |
| 5.5 | 100.93 | -0.05 |
| 6.0 | 101.96 | 0.05 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.602 | 99.806 | 0.011 |
| 3 yr | 3.675 | 99.507 | 0.02 |
| 5 yr | 3.843 | 99.018 | 0.017 |
| 7 yr | 4.037 | 98.266 | 0.006 |
| 10 yr | 4.242 | 98.041 | -0.003 |
| 30 yr | 4.83 | 96.771 | -0.034 |
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