WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/23/2026
Mortgage markets wrapped up a volatile week with remarkably quiet trading as bond investors stepped back from the action. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.229%, down 21 basis points from Thursday’s highs, giving mortgage originators a modest reprieve after this week’s turbulence. UMBS pricing showed mixed but stable movements with the 5.0 coupon gaining 6 basis points while the 6.0 coupon remained nearly unchanged.
Economic data painted a picture of resilient growth with some encouraging inflation signals. Consumer sentiment surged to 56.4, crushing the 54.0 forecast and showing Americans feel increasingly optimistic about current conditions. More importantly for rate watchers, inflation expectations cooled slightly with consumers expecting 4.0% inflation over the next year, down from the previous 4.2% reading.
The PMI readings told a story of steady expansion without overheating concerns. The composite PMI hit 52.8, showing continued economic growth above the critical 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, just shy of the 52.0 forecast, while services PMI matched expectations at 52.5, suggesting balanced growth across sectors.
Market volatility dominated the day’s trading pattern with bonds swinging between positive and negative territory multiple times. MBS prices experienced back-and-forth movement, falling as low as down 2 ticks before recovering to finish up 1 tick by the close. This choppy action reflects ongoing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and broader economic direction.
Locking vs Floating
Current market conditions favor defensive positioning for mortgage originators with deals closing in the next two weeks. The mortgage rate range established in early January appears to have set a floor, but meaningful moves lower require either significant Treasury rallies or deteriorating economic data. With no major economic releases scheduled until the first week of February, markets may continue this sideways trading pattern that provides little directional clarity for rate predictions.
Today’s Events
S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan): 52.8 vs 52.7 previous
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 51.9 vs 52.0 forecast, 51.8 previous
S&P Global Services PMI (Jan): 52.5 vs 52.8 forecast, 52.5 previous
Consumer Sentiment (Jan): 56.4 vs 54.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
Sentiment 1-Year Inflation (Jan): 4.0% vs 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
Sentiment 5-Year Inflation (Jan): 3.3% vs 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
University of Michigan Conditions (Jan): 55.4 vs 52.4 forecast, 50.4 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.94 | 0.06 |
| 5.5 | 101.33 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.34 | 0.01 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.88 | 0.11 |
| 5.5 | 100.99 | 0.06 |
| 6.0 | 102.08 | 0.13 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.598 | 99.812 | -0.012 |
| 3 yr | 3.66 | 99.549 | -0.021 |
| 5 yr | 3.824 | 99.102 | -0.026 |
| 7 yr | 4.022 | 98.355 | -0.024 |
| 10 yr | 4.229 | 98.151 | -0.021 |
| 30 yr | 4.831 | 96.754 | -0.011 |
