WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 01/29/2026
Bond markets ended little-changed today as Treasury yields held near recent levels despite minor economic data releases. The 10-year Treasury closed down 1.4 basis points at 4.228%, providing modest relief after yesterday’s selling pressure. MBS securities remained roughly unchanged throughout the session, showing resilience against broader market volatility.
Weekly jobless claims came in slightly above expectations at 209,000 versus the 205,000 forecast, though continuing claims fell to 1.827 million from the previous 1.849 million. The mixed labor data reflects ongoing uncertainty in employment trends as the economy navigates post-Fed decision dynamics. Markets showed minimal reaction to these figures, suggesting traders are focused on bigger-picture developments.
A mysterious mini-sell-off occurred during morning hours with MBS dropping an eighth and 10-year yields rising over one basis point before leveling off. The afternoon session saw Treasuries recover to stronger levels with no clear catalyst for the earlier weakness. The 7-year Treasury auction at 1:09 PM generated no market reaction, indicating steady demand for government debt.
UMBS securities showed slight weakness across coupons with the 5.0, 5.5, and 6.0 coupons all declining between 4-6 basis points. GNMA securities fared better with the 6.0 coupon actually gaining 18 basis points while lower coupons remained stable. This divergence highlights the complex dynamics in mortgage-backed securities pricing during periods of market consolidation.
Locking vs Floating
Mortgage rates face significant constraints on further declines given current market conditions. GSE MBS purchases provide some protection against Treasury sell-offs, but the lower limit of the mortgage rate range was established in early January. Meaningful rate improvements will require either substantial bond market selling to create entry points for buyers or legitimate deterioration in major economic indicators, with no significant data releases scheduled until February’s first week.
For originators, this environment suggests limited opportunities for rate improvements in the near term. Consider locking deals that can close within the next two weeks given the lack of catalysts for meaningful rate declines.
Today’s Events
– Continued Claims (Jan 17): 1,827K vs 1860K forecast, 1849K previous
– Jobless Claims (Jan 24): 209K vs 205K forecast, 200K previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.05 | -0.06 |
| 5.5 | 101.43 | -0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.38 | -0.04 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.05 | 0 |
| 5.5 | 101.11 | -0.01 |
| 6.0 | 102.33 | 0.18 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.559 | 99.887 | -0.012 |
| 3 yr | 3.629 | 99.637 | -0.013 |
| 5 yr | 3.817 | 99.135 | -0.014 |
| 7 yr | 3.981 | 98.598 | -0.05 |
| 10 yr | 4.236 | 98.09 | -0.009 |
| 30 yr | 4.855 | 96.386 | -0.006 |
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