WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 02/04/2026
Wednesday’s economic data produced minimal fireworks, but the underlying message for mortgage originators remains clear. ADP employment came in dramatically weaker at just 22,000 jobs versus the 48,000 forecast, marking the slowest pace of job creation since early 2021. The ISM Services data showed mixed signals with business activity rising but employment dropping below the key 50 threshold.
These softening labor market conditions typically translate to more favorable mortgage market conditions over time. MBS securities traded in a narrow range despite the weaker employment data, with most UMBS coupons finishing down modestly. The 10-year Treasury yield drifted higher by just over a basis point to 4.278%, showing markets remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s delayed JOLTS report and weekly jobless claims.
Bond traders appear content to wait for clearer directional signals before making significant moves. Government shutdown delays continue to create uncertainty in the economic data calendar. Thursday now includes both job openings and jobless claims data, which could create some intraday volatility but nothing approaching the impact of next Wednesday’s rescheduled employment report.
Markets have grown accustomed to these periodic disruptions, but the timing remains problematic for rate-sensitive sectors like mortgage origination. The broader credit environment shows some stress signals that mortgage professionals should monitor. While not directly impacting agency lending, tightening credit conditions in private markets often precede broader financial market volatility.
Non-QM and jumbo lending remain the most vulnerable segments if credit stress spreads.
Locking vs Floating
Wednesday’s economic releases failed to provide strong directional momentum for bond markets. With most major data now behind us for the week, markets are in a holding pattern until Thursday’s combined JOLTS and jobless claims reports.
The bigger catalyst remains next Wednesday’s rescheduled jobs report, which could drive significant rate movements depending on the outcome.
Today’s Events
ADP Employment: 22k vs 48k forecast, 41k previous
ISM Business Activity (Jan): 57.4 vs 56.0 previous
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 53.8 vs 53.5 forecast, 54.4 previous
ISM Services Employment (Jan): 50.3 vs 52.3 forecast, 52.0 previous
ISM Services New Orders (Jan): 53.1 vs 57.9 previous
ISM Services Prices (Jan): 66.6 vs 64.3 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.72 | -0.11 |
| 5.5 | 101.27 | -0.08 |
| 6.0 | 102.41 | 0.01 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.82 | -0.07 |
| 5.5 | 101.13 | 0.04 |
| 6.0 | 102.25 | 0.05 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.555 | 99.895 | -0.017 |
| 3 yr | 3.634 | 99.629 | -0.012 |
| 5 yr | 3.831 | 99.633 | -0.006 |
| 7 yr | 4.049 | 99.703 | -0.001 |
| 10 yr | 4.278 | 97.797 | 0.005 |
| 30 yr | 4.92 | 95.406 | 0.014 |
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