WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 02/23/2026
General risk aversion is driving a welcome bond rally as the week begins. MBS held at their strongest levels with UMBS 5.0 coupon gaining 10 ticks to 100.41, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 52 basis points to 4.033%. This improvement should translate directly into better rate sheets for originators tomorrow morning.
Factory Orders disappointed at -0.7% versus -0.5% forecast, adding to economic uncertainty that’s helping bonds. The weak manufacturing data reinforces concerns about economic momentum, though the impact remains secondary to broader trade-related market anxiety. Bond traders are positioning defensively amid ongoing uncertainty about policy changes.
The White House unveiled its institutional investor homebuying ban, targeting firms owning more than 100 single-family homes. This threshold affects hundreds of investment companies while including exemptions for builders and renovators. The proposal gives Treasury Secretary broad authority to modify criteria, though Democrats are pushing back on what they see as too many loopholes.
January foreclosures surged 32% year-over-year to 40,534 properties nationwide, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases. This troubling trend signals continued distress in the housing market as affordability challenges persist. Default notices, auction notices, and bank repossessions all contributed to the sharp uptick from January 2025 levels.
National home prices show minimal 0.2% growth year-over-year through January 2026, a dramatic slowdown from 2.6% growth the previous year. About one-third of major markets are experiencing price declines, with Sun Belt regions like Texas, Florida, and Colorado seeing the most softness. The stabilization comes as inventory levels have stopped climbing in most markets after significant increases through mid-2025.
HUD proposed restricting public housing to citizens and eligible noncitizens only, potentially displacing thousands of mixed-status families. The rule would require all residents to prove citizenship or eligible status, including seniors who previously only needed to show age. This represents part of the administration’s broader immigration enforcement efforts and mirrors policies outlined in Project 2025.
Supreme Court action on tariffs created brief market volatility but ultimately supported bond strength. The Court blocked most existing tariffs, prompting the Administration to implement a temporary 15% across-the-board rate. The new tariffs expire in 150 days without Congressional ratification, potentially reducing effective rates from 16% to around 9%.
New home sales declined 1.7% monthly to 745,000 units despite posting 3.8% annual growth. The market faces a significant oversupply with 472,000 homes for sale representing 7.6 months of inventory. Builders are focusing on lower-priced homes with median prices at $414,000 to attract buyers in the challenging environment.
Locking vs Floating
Bonds are benefiting from trade-related uncertainty, but originators should remain cautious about floating longer-term deals. The market appears somewhat insulated from immediate pressure, though any major trade announcements could quickly change dynamics. Economic data would need to show significant strength to push rates meaningfully higher from current levels.
MBS prices provide good intraday risk management tools while 10-year yield levels help track broader momentum trends. Consider locking deals with shorter closing timelines given ongoing policy uncertainty. The 150-day timeline on new tariffs creates a natural inflection point that could impact market direction.
Today’s Events
– Factory Orders: -0.7 vs -0.5 f’cast, 2.7 prev
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.41 | 0.1 |
| 5.5 | 101.6 | 0.06 |
| 6.0 | 102.52 | -0.01 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.23 | 0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.24 | -0.01 |
| 6.0 | 102.17 | 0.15 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.45 | 100.097 | -0.031 |
| 3 yr | 3.447 | 100.15 | -0.054 |
| 5 yr | 3.586 | 100.746 | -0.062 |
| 7 yr | 3.788 | 101.294 | -0.06 |
| 10 yr | 4.033 | 99.732 | -0.052 |
| 30 yr | 4.704 | 98.737 | -0.02 |
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