Based on the provided information, here is the PM blog post:
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WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 02/25/2026
Mortgage markets are treading water this afternoon as bonds hold near their strongest recent levels with minimal movement. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.045%, up just one basis point from this morning, showing the subdued trading environment that has characterized today’s session. UMBS securities experienced modest afternoon weakness, with the 4.5 coupon down 16 ticks to 98.58 and the 5.0 coupon off nine ticks to 100.27, though these moves remain within the tight range established this week.
GNMA bonds mirrored the afternoon softness, with the 4.5 coupon declining 12 ticks to 98.54 and the 5.0 coupon down just two ticks to 100.23. Rate sheets for tomorrow should reflect only minor deterioration from this morning’s offerings, meaning originators still have attractive pricing to work with. The modest intraday weakness does not signal a broader shift in market sentiment, but rather typical afternoon fluctuations within a stable trading pattern.
Home sale cancellations surged to their highest January level on record, with nearly 40,000 agreements falling through nationwide, representing 13.7% of homes that went under contract. This marks an increase from 13.1% a year earlier and reflects buyer-friendly market conditions where hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers give purchasers the power to walk away during inspections or pivot to better options. Economic uncertainty surrounding layoffs, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions is making buyers increasingly jittery about committing to large purchases.
San Antonio leads the nation with a staggering 21.2% cancellation rate, where there are twice as many sellers as buyers, followed by Atlanta at 18.5% and Cleveland at 17.9%. In contrast, San Francisco posted the lowest cancellation rate at just 3.5%, with Nassau County, New York at 4.8%, and San Jose at 5.3%, demonstrating the stark regional differences in market dynamics. For mortgage originators, these elevated cancellation rates mean more pipeline fallout and the need for careful qualification and buyer commitment assessments.
Trade policy continues to dominate market sentiment, with the 10% global tariff announced yesterday keeping investors cautious about economic growth prospects. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have shifted further into the second half of the year, though markets still anticipate two to three cuts by the end of 2026. This outlook should keep longer-term yields anchored near current levels and promote yield curve flattening rather than steepening, providing some stability for mortgage pricing.
Home price appreciation continues nationwide despite regional variations, with the FHFA House Price Index showing a 1.8% year-over-year increase from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Prices rose in 41 states, led by North Dakota, Delaware, and Illinois, while nine states and Washington D.C. experienced declines, with Florida posting the largest drop.
The Midwest, particularly the East North Central division, saw the strongest gains, while certain Florida metros faced notable price corrections that reflect shifting migration patterns and market saturation.
Locking vs Floating
Bonds remain mostly sideways near their strongest recent levels this week, providing a cushion against upward rate pressure. Strong economic data would be needed to push rates meaningfully higher from current levels, though bonds can still respond to non-economic events if they’re significant enough.
The market’s current insulation from rate increases could disappear quickly with major trade announcements or geopolitical developments. Given the stable afternoon session and favorable territory, floating remains reasonable for longer-term locks beyond 30 days, but borrowers closing within three weeks should lock to protect against sudden volatility.
Today’s Events
– MBA Purchase Index (Feb 20): 149.7 vs 157.1 previous
– MBA Refi Index (Feb 20): 1,432.9 vs 1,375.9 previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 100.27 | -0.09 |
| 5.5 | 101.53 | 0.02 |
| 5.0 | 100.23 | -0.02 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.472 | 100.054 | 0.007 |
| 3 yr | 3.493 | 100.021 | 0.029 |
| 5 yr | 3.624 | 100.572 | 0.025 |
| 7 yr | 3.816 | 101.122 | 0.021 |
| 10 yr | 4.045 | 99.635 | 0.01 |
| 30 yr | 4.699 | 98.823 | 0.008 |
