WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 03/09/2026
Bond markets delivered a wild ride today as geopolitical tensions whipsawed oil prices and mortgage-backed securities. UMBS 5.0 coupons closed up 18 ticks at 99.93 after plunging nearly a quarter point during overnight trading. The dramatic reversal came as crude oil posted its largest intraday spike on record before surrendering all gains by afternoon.
The morning session opened in chaos as Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots near Tehran sent crude surging over $26 per barrel, a stunning 28% jump. This oil price shock pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 4.21% overnight, their highest level in recent sessions. MBS prices initially dropped sharply as investors fled to safety amid escalating Middle East conflict.
Markets reversed course completely following President Trump’s afternoon comments suggesting the Iran conflict is “very complete, pretty much” according to CBS reporters. Bond yields tumbled 4.1 basis points to 4.096% while stocks erased all daily losses. Oil prices fell below Friday’s closing levels as traders interpreted the remarks as signaling de-escalation.
The dramatic intraday reversal perfectly traced oil price movements, demonstrating how tightly correlated energy markets and fixed income securities have become. For mortgage originators, this volatility creates pricing uncertainty that makes rate quotes challenging to maintain throughout the day. Lenders who avoided afternoon repricing will likely have cushion heading into Tuesday’s session.
Iran’s political transition adds another layer of uncertainty as the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the next supreme leader, though Israel and the US have indicated they won’t accept his leadership. Average US gas prices have climbed 14% to $3.41 per gallon as the 10-day conflict continues. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has attempted to de-escalate tensions with Gulf neighbors, though regional strikes continue.
In industry news, West Capital Lending filed a federal lawsuit accusing loanDepot of operating an unlawful compensation structure that allegedly steered borrowers into higher-priced mortgages. The complaint filed March 6 in US District Court for Central California claims loanDepot’s Consumer Direct division tied employee compensation to loan profitability and pricing. West Capital alleges this created unfair competitive advantages and violated the Truth in Lending Act, Loan Originator Compensation Rules under Regulation Z, and California’s Unfair Competition Law.
Locking vs Floating
Volatility risk remains significantly elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. While February’s CPI data releases this week would traditionally merit close attention, oil price swings are likely to overshadow economic indicators. Originators should exercise caution with floating strategies given the unpredictable nature of conflict-driven market movements.
Today’s Events
No economic data releases scheduled.
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.93 | 0.18 |
| 5.5 | 101.28 | 0.05 |
| 5.0 | 100.19 | 0.17 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.542 | 99.919 | -0.014 |
| 3 yr | 3.558 | 99.836 | -0.028 |
| 5 yr | 3.687 | 100.285 | -0.035 |
| 7 yr | 3.885 | 100.701 | -0.036 |
| 10 yr | 4.096 | 99.22 | -0.041 |
| 30 yr | 4.715 | 98.569 | -0.043 |
