# WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 03/25/2026
Rate Volatility Reaches Breaking Point
Mortgage rates aren’t just climbing anymore — they’re whipsawing at speeds that strain the entire origination pipeline. Over the past few weeks, rates have swung dramatically within hours, creating uncertainty that kills more deals than high rates alone ever could. Borrowers can handle expensive money, but they can’t navigate when pricing becomes unpredictable from one day to the next.
This volatility is forcing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to step up their MBS buying programs, placing larger bids to stabilize the market. Even with GSE intervention, the wild swings show no signs of stopping. 10-Year Treasury Provides Rare Relief
Today brought unexpected calm to an otherwise chaotic March, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 4.2 basis points to 4.323% amid lighter volatility.
UMBS 5.0s gained 17 basis points to 98.50, while GNMA 5.0s jumped 17 points to 98.80, marking the strongest single-day performance in weeks. Import prices surged to 1.3% versus forecasts of 0.5%, but markets paradoxically strengthened despite the inflationary data. The disconnect suggests traders are more focused on Iran war de-escalation headlines than domestic economic indicators.
This represents a potential turning point after weeks of multi-month yield highs. Iran War De-escalation Drives Bond Strength
Wednesday’s bond market rally stemmed from conflicting but ultimately positive headlines about Iran war negotiations, even as Iran publicly refuted U.S. claims of progress.
Markets are betting that U.S. intentions to wind down the conflict matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S.
wants to de-escalate, that outcome becomes reality regardless of Iranian public statements. This geopolitical shift provided the rare calm that mortgage markets desperately needed after weeks of persistent volatility. The narrowest trading range of March offered mortgage originators their first predictable pricing session in recent memory.
HUD Targets Washington’s Race-Based Down Payment Program
Federal housing regulators are investigating Washington state’s Covenant Homeownership Program, which offers zero-interest down payment assistance exclusively to borrowers whose ancestors are Black, Hispanic, Native American, Pacific Islander, or of Indian descent. HUD Secretary Turner called the program an illegal use of racial preferences that violates equal protection rights, noting that European, Japanese, Arab, or Jewish ancestry doesn’t qualify applicants. The timing is particularly notable as it comes days after 16 state attorneys general sued HUD for allegedly forcing states to weaken their own housing discrimination protections.
This investigation signals a broader federal pushback against race-conscious housing programs launched in recent years. FICO Pricing Practices Face Senate Scrutiny
Sen. Josh Hawley is pushing the FTC to investigate FICO’s credit score pricing, arguing the company’s wholesale per-score price jumped from $0.60 to $10 over five years with 88% operating margins.
FICO’s planned 2026 price increase could add roughly $500 million in industry costs that ultimately get passed to borrowers. First-time buyers face the biggest impact since they often require multiple credit checks before closing. Hawley’s investigation comes as mortgage originators already struggle with compressed margins and rising compliance costs.
This scrutiny could reshape how credit scoring costs flow through the origination process. Lender News and Market Adjustments
Brokers First Funding expanded its Non-QM super jumbo program to $5 million loan limits, offering increased flexibility for high-net-worth borrowers in tight credit markets. A California borrower sued United Wholesale Mortgage over allegedly unauthorized credit report pulls during early refinance inquiries, highlighting growing FCRA compliance risks.
New data shows Latino homebuyers in California continue receiving disproportionately smaller shares of bank mortgage lending relative to their population size. These developments reflect an industry adapting to regulatory pressure while trying to serve underrepresented borrowers in volatile rate environments.
Locking vs Floating
Today’s reduced volatility and bond strength represent a promising development, but yields remain near multi-month highs from yesterday afternoon.
The improvement isn’t significant enough to warrant abandoning defensive locking strategies given the persistent uncertainty. Originators should maintain cautious approaches until volatility patterns show sustained improvement over multiple sessions.
Today’s Events
Import Prices: 1.3% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 98.45 | 0.11 |
| 5.5 | 100.29 | 0.1 |
| 6.0 | 101.8 | 0.09 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 98.84 | 0.21 |
| 5.5 | 100.37 | 0.13 |
| 6.0 | 101.49 | 0.06 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.89 | 99.256 | -0.011 |
| 3 yr | 3.89 | 98.907 | -0.016 |
| 5 yr | 3.975 | 98.991 | -0.023 |
| 7 yr | 4.15 | 99.1 | -0.034 |
| 10 yr | 4.331 | 97.335 | -0.035 |
| 30 yr | 4.907 | 95.603 | -0.024 |
