WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (09/25/2025)

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets showed a mixed performance at the start of today, with UMBS 30-year prices experiencing slight declines while GNMA securities saw modest gains. UMBS 30-year at the 5.0 coupon fell by 0.07 points, while GNMA 30-year at the same coupon rose by 0.14 points. The mortgage bond prices reflected cautious investor sentiment amidst a backdrop of fluctuating treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed to 4.127%, indicating a slight rise in borrowing costs. This movement is largely influenced by recent robust U.S. jobs data and a significant GDP revision, which has pushed yields higher as investors price in economic resilience. Despite some recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials signaling a cautious outlook, the bond market’s reaction suggests expectations of continued rate pressures in the near term.

The mortgage origination sector remains optimistic with technological advancements easing processes, exemplified by Beeline Holdings leveraging AI to improve mortgage origination. However, mortgage demand has stalled after a recent mini refinance boom, indicating potential headwinds for originators. The MBS Highway National Housing Index rebounded modestly, suggesting some stabilizing momentum in housing despite mixed sales reports and economic uncertainties. Ginnie Mae securities continue their steady movement, supported by institutional and retail demand, while UMBS performance remains sensitive to treasury yield shifts and Fed signals. Market watchers emphasize the importance of tracking daily MBS pricing closely as it directly impacts mortgage rates offered to consumers.

The interplay between treasury yields, Fed communications, and housing market data remains pivotal. In real estate, new home sales have seen slight upticks despite overall subdued demand, while existing home sales continue to decline more than anticipated. Mortgage lenders are advised to remain vigilant as economic data releases and Fed rhetoric can swiftly alter market dynamics. This environment favors disciplined risk management and strategic pricing approaches. The mortgage market is navigating through a phase of moderate volatility, with pricing sensitive to macroeconomic data releases and bond market fluctuations. Investors and originators alike are eyeing a potential shift later this year as inflation control measures and economic growth data evolve.

The expectation for mortgage rates to move below 6% by late 2026 provides a longer-term positive outlook despite near-term uncertainties. For daily insights on MBS and treasury markets, mortgage origination trends, and housing sector developments, subscribe to receive this concise briefing in your inbox every morning for free. Stay informed and ahead in the dynamic mortgage marketplace.

Real-Time Pricing
UMBS 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.47, Day Δ -0.07
– 5.5: Price 101.05, Day Δ -0.02
– 6.0: Price 102.30, Day Δ +0.03

GNMA 30-Year:
– 5.0: Price 99.72, Day Δ +0.14
– 5.5: Price 100.91, Day Δ +0.09
– 6.0: Price 101.79, Day Δ +0.03

Treasuries:
– 2-yr: Price 100.094, Yield 3.576
– 5-yr: Price 99.743, Yield 3.682
– 10-yr: Price 100.996, Yield 4.127