UMBS are up 8 bps and S&P up 37 points.

Bonds began the overnight session drifting very gently stronger but began losing ground during European trading hours. Several central banks hiked rates as expected (thus no major reactions).

Yields were a few bps higher at the open and have risen another few bps after data, but not because of it. Rather, it looks like bonds were slightly spooked by a big corporate bond announcement and premarket gains in First Republic Bank (the current poster child for systemic banking concerns in the U.S.).

Jobless Claims= 191k vs 197k f’cast [192k prev]

The Fed cleared a lot up for the market yesterday by confirming that inflation still matters, but that systemic banking problems also matter. Powell pointed to the latter being like a free rate hike–i.e. something that helps deliver a tightening effect to the economy without the Fed actually having to hike rates. Markets took it as a potential turning point for rate hike urgency.

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but eventually turned green with help from a flight-to-safety in Europe.  A few hours later, US markets did the same thing, resulting in even better gains for Treasuries.  10s dropped under 3.40% and MBS gained more than an eighth of a point

The MBA’s forecast for 2023 volumes changed, and here’s the latest by the MBA on 2023’s originations: $1.8 trillion.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) and Black Knight Inc.file official responses to federal regulators’ bid to block their merger.


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