Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) started off down 12 basis points (bps), while the 10-year bond yield increased by 4bps, and stocks rose by 7.88 points. Overnight, bonds were moderately weaker with no specific driver for the market. While data made a case for lower rates in Europe, it didn’t stop European Union (EU) bonds from opening slightly weaker. A bulletin from the European Central Bank (ECB) suggested that existing rate hikes will have their peak anti-inflation impact in 2024. However, EU bonds stayed in a sideways range until US trading began. The New York (NY) Fed Manufacturing data showed a brief recovery, but yields have been slipping back into weaker territory since then. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey revealed that business activity increased in NY, with new orders and shipments surging while employment remained weak. Inflation continues to trend down, with input prices falling while prices received were flat. The bond market has been range-bound, waiting to find out whether bulls or bears will emerge victorious in the next big directional momentum. While rates have been range-bound, they’re ready to go higher or lower, depending on the balance of economic data in the coming weeks and months.

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