MBS up 9 bps on the day. Stocks up about 12.
The week ahead will be dominated by the jobs report on Friday. We will also get ISM data and productivity. The Street is looking for about 200k jobs and for wage inflation to decelerate to 0.3% MOM and 4.2% YOY.
It will also be a big week for earnings with reports from heavyweights like Apple and Amazon. The Japanese Government Bond yield rose another 5 basis points in overnight trading. JP Morgan believes that bond yields have peaked in the US and will drift lower for the rest of the year.
ADP and BLS jobs reports come out on Wed and Friday. Also, about 1/3 of the S&P 500 will give their earnings.
Jobs reports are going to be interesting in the wake of big job loss news. Yellow, the 3rd largest trucking company, abruptly closed and fired their 30,000 employees. Won’t be in this week’s reports, though will hit at some time.
Zillow reported that, through June, home prices were up 4.8% on the year. Extrapolated over 12 months, it’s about 10% appreciation. They forecast 6.3% over the coming 12 months.
When there are multiple examples of important events that can cause bond market volatility in any given week but that week begins without much volatility, the analysis writes itself. The words may vary, but the underlying message is one of “calm before the storm.” And because the storm involves multiple economic reports that stand some chance of offsetting their directional implications, it’s safer to say “calm before the potential storm.” The most notable volatility today was driven by trades that existed due to month-end positional needs rather than a reaction to data/events. Thus, the biggest moves were seen at 9:30am and 3pm, but ultimately didn’t leave trading levels far from Friday’s latest.
MBS were down 30 bps on the day. Stocks gained 6.73
Big news out of Rocket today with the announcement of a new CEO and the retirement of another veteran. The new CEO is fintech executive Varun Krishna, who has experience at Intuit and PayPal. He starts right after Labor Dayon the same day Bob Walters steps down as president and chief operating officer.
Rocket has been in an extended period of turnover. Jay Farner retired last month following two quarterly losses. Interim CEO Bill Emerson will take Walters’ president and COO role.