**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 09/04/2025**

The bond market is experiencing mixed signals this morning as the 10-year Treasury yield fell following weak private payrolls data, providing some relief after yesterday’s selloff. However, Treasury bonds remain under pressure with the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, reflecting broader concerns about government spending and potential tariff refunds. This volatility is creating uncertainty in the mortgage-backed securities market, with UMBS prices showing modest pressure from the ongoing rate environment. Mortgage rates are holding relatively steady at 6.57% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to the latest industry data. While this represents a slight improvement from recent highs, rates remain elevated compared to the sub-6% levels seen earlier this year.

The mortgage origination business continues to face headwinds as borrowers remain cost-sensitive and many existing homeowners stay locked into sub-4% rates from previous years. Market participants are closely watching employment data ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve meeting later this month. The weak private payrolls report released today could support the case for Fed rate cuts, though officials remain cautious about moving too aggressively given persistent inflation concerns. Bond traders are positioning for potential policy shifts, with GNMA securities showing relative stability compared to conventional mortgage products.

The real estate market continues to reflect the impact of higher borrowing costs, with buyer demand remaining constrained despite seasonal factors that typically support activity. Industry experts suggest that any meaningful improvement in mortgage rates will likely require sustained evidence of economic cooling and consistent Fed policy signals. For now, lenders are managing tight margins while borrowers weigh the costs of today’s rates against waiting for potential improvements. Subscribe to get this daily mortgage and bond market analysis delivered to your inbox for free every morning.