WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 11/07/2025

Bond markets opened with modest strength this morning as traders awaited University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon traded down 5 basis points to 99.48 early in the session. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.09% after yesterday’s strong rally backing out Wednesday’s weakness.

Thursday’s data-driven rally provided clear evidence that the recent selling trend has found sufficient resistance to warrant a more neutral approach. If you were waiting for confirmation that bond markets had established a technical floor, yesterday’s action delivered exactly that signal. The rally easily reversed Wednesday’s losses and reinforced support at key yield levels around 4.16% on the 10-year Treasury.

Fannie Mae this week implemented major changes to its Desktop Underwriter system, removing the traditional 620 minimum credit score requirement effective November 16th. This shift moves eligibility determinations to DU’s internal risk analysis rather than relying on fixed score thresholds. The change opens doors for borrowers with thin or nontraditional credit files who previously couldn’t qualify under conventional standards.

A VantageScore analysis of over 600,000 renters shows millions could qualify for mortgages if on-time rent payments were included in credit files. Consumers with thin credit histories saw score improvements of up to 67 points when rental tradelines were added. Nearly all previously credit-invisible renters in the study reached scores above 620, averaging 654 points.

Locking vs Floating

Thursday’s strong rally reinforced technical support levels that suggest the recent selling pressure has run its course for now. Consumer sentiment data missed forecasts at 50.3 versus 53.2 expected, while inflation expectations showed mixed results with one-year at 4.7% and five-year declining to 3.6%. MBS prices improved modestly into the close with lower-coupon securities outperforming higher ones as demand shifted toward safer bonds.

Today’s Events

– Consumer Sentiment (Nov): 50.3 vs 53.2 forecast, 53.6 previous
– Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Nov): 4.7% vs 4.6% previous
– Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Nov): 3.6% vs 3.9% previous
– U Mich conditions (Nov): 52.3 vs 59.2 forecast, 58.6 previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.55 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 101.05 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 102.22 | -0.05 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.74 | -0.01 |
| 5.5 | 100.78 | -0.05 |
| 6.0 | 101.78 | 0.03 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.551 | 99.902 | -0.006 |
| 3 yr | 3.559 | 99.834 | -0.01 |
| 5 yr | 3.674 | 99.777 | -0.008 |
| 7 yr | 3.867 | 100.052 | -0.004 |
| 10 yr | 4.089 | 101.312 | 0.004 |
| 30 yr | 4.697 | 100.847 | 0.019 |