WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 11/13/2025
The government shutdown is finally over, but don’t celebrate just yet. Markets are treating the reopening with a shrug since everyone saw this coming by mid-November. Treasury yields jumped higher overnight and MBS prices dropped as traders positioned for the reality that no major economic data will drop immediately.
The 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.109% while UMBS 5.0 coupons fell 13 basis points to 99.36. This selling pressure reflects uncertainty about what happens next with Federal Reserve policy decisions. Money markets now see even odds of a December rate cut after weeks of data blackout confusion.
Here’s the harsh truth for mortgage originators: the White House confirmed that October jobs and CPI reports probably won’t be released even after the reopening. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement, adding more uncertainty to an already cloudy Fed landscape. These missing data points leave the December Fed meeting as a genuine coin flip.
Locking vs Floating
Current yields and rates are testing November’s lower boundaries, but government reopening volatility remains limited. While confirmed data releases could introduce swings, the scope may be restricted until we get clarity on backlogged economic reports. MBS prices help with intraday risk management, but 10-year yield levels will drive bigger picture momentum.
Today’s Events
– 1:00 PM: $25 billion 30-Year Bond Auction
– ADP Weekly Payrolls (Tuesday): -11k
Bond Pricing
UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.36 | -0.13 |
| 5.5 | 100.9 | -0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.15 | -0.04 |
GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.55 | -0.21 |
| 5.5 | 100.75 | -0.06 |
| 6.0 | 101.63 | -0.03 |
Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.596 | 99.816 | 0.03 |
| 3 yr | 3.594 | 99.735 | 0.036 |
| 5 yr | 3.707 | 99.629 | 0.041 |
| 7 yr | 3.888 | 99.921 | 0.041 |
| 10 yr | 4.109 | 101.15 | 0.045 |
| 30 yr | 4.687 | 101.011 | 0.026 |
