WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 11/24/2025

Bonds quietly found their way to best levels in over three weeks this morning. Despite a data-free Monday on this holiday-shortened week, mortgage-backed securities climbed modestly higher. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon gained 8 basis points to 99.58, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.054%.

This subtle rally brings yields to their lowest point since the late October Fed meeting. With limited market-moving headlines and muted stock volatility, bonds secured small gains without dramatic fanfare. The movement reflects steady underlying demand rather than reaction to specific news.

Credit report costs are set to spike dramatically next year, hitting lenders with a 45-50% increase across the board. This marks the fourth consecutive annual rise driven by higher fees from Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion. The MBA argues these credit bureaus are exploiting their monopolistic position in a mandated system.

FICO-related charges and the stalled rollout of VantageScore 4.0 compound the problem for mortgage originators. Lenders are responding by delaying full tri-merge credit pulls and considering passing costs directly to consumers. This trend threatens to further squeeze already tight profit margins in mortgage banking.

The National Association of Realtors predicts a housing market rebound in 2026, forecasting existing home sales to jump 14%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun cites easing mortgage costs and resilient employment as key drivers. Home prices are expected to climb 4% next year, with 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 6%.

Industry employment shows encouraging signs after months of painful layoffs. The mortgage sector has posted six consecutive months of year-over-year job growth, signaling the worst is behind us. However, housing affordability remains near multi-decade lows with inventory at just 1.35 million homes.

Locking vs Floating

The Thanksgiving week presents a wild card for bond markets due to skeleton crews at trading desks. Business essentially wraps up Wednesday morning, creating potential for random volatility bursts. Both conservative and aggressive clients should expect limited meaningful rallies until the December 10th Fed meeting and delayed economic data on December 16th.

Today’s Events

No economic data scheduled

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.55 | 0.05 |
| 5.5 | 101.07 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.27 | 0 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.65 | -0.03 |
| 5.5 | 100.89 | 0.01 |
| 6.0 | 101.76 | -0.02 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.521 | 99.959 | 0.017 |
| 3 yr | 3.509 | 99.975 | 0.013 |
| 5 yr | 3.623 | 100.008 | 0.005 |
| 7 yr | 3.811 | 99.628 | -0.003 |
| 10 yr | 4.051 | 99.582 | -0.014 |
| 30 yr | 4.688 | 98.992 | -0.024 |