WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 11/25/2025

The 10-year Treasury is flirting with 4.0%, but traders aren’t reacting to today’s economic data. Despite ADP showing another 13.5K weekly employment decline, bond markets barely moved this morning. Thanksgiving week trading vibes are in full effect, with MBS up nearly an eighth of a point anyway.

Multiple economic releases painted a mixed picture for mortgage originators. September retail sales came in at just 0.2% versus the expected 0.4%, while the control group actually fell 0.1%. Producer prices met expectations at 0.3% monthly, but core inflation was slightly cooler than forecast.

As year-end approaches, traders are pulling back risk, creating choppier markets with lighter volume. The 10-year continues to face major resistance near 4.00% with support around 3.99% and 3.93%. These levels are unlikely to break without a weaker stock market or shift in Fed policy expectations for 2026.

The mortgage industry faces new challenges beyond just rate movements. FHFA Director Bill Pulte is reportedly under federal grand jury scrutiny as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac advance rule changes forcing independent mortgage banks to hold more capital. These policies would ultimately increase mortgage costs despite Pulte’s public focus on consumer-friendly initiatives.

Locking vs Floating

Volatility risk increases over the next two days due to busier economic calendar and typical Thanksgiving week illiquidity. Risk-averse clients should lock rates that are close enough to lows of the past month. Moderately risk-tolerant clients should recognize it will require more timely bigger-ticket data in mid-December to see significant rate improvement.

Today’s Events

– ADP Employment Change Weekly: -13.5K vs -2.5K previous
– Core Producer Prices (Sep): 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast
– PPI Year-over-Year (Sep): 2.7% vs 2.7% forecast
– Retail Sales (Sep): 0.2% vs 0.4% forecast
– Consumer Confidence: 88.7 vs 93.4 forecast
– Pending Home Sales: 76.3 vs 74.8 previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.79 | 0.09 |
| 5.5 | 101.23 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.37 | 0.05 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.92 | 0.07 |
| 5.5 | 100.97 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 101.79 | -0.06 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.485 | 100.028 | -0.009 |
| 10 yr | 4.009 | 99.923 | -0.018 |
| 30 yr | 4.647 | 99.649 | -0.017 |