WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 12/29/2025

Bond markets are entering peak holiday mode this final week of 2025, creating an environment where wider price swings can happen without clear economic drivers. Agency MBS opened modestly stronger with UMBS 5.0 coupons up 5 basis points to 99.90, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.12%. This modest improvement follows European markets that provided some overnight support to U.S.

fixed income. Pending home sales data surprised to the upside at 79.2 versus the previous reading of 74.9, showing continued resilience in housing demand despite elevated mortgage rates. However, the real story for mortgage originators is the light economic calendar ahead and potential for erratic bond movements through New Year’s Day.

The next meaningful economic events won’t arrive until the first week of January. Market Activity and Technology Trends

Technology companies like Polly continue pushing artificial intelligence adoption in capital markets, with CEO Adam Carmel highlighting 2025 as a landmark year for enterprise innovation. The era of stagnant legacy technology appears to be ending as lenders embrace AI-driven solutions for pricing and secondary marketing.

This technological shift represents a critical adaptation as the industry prepares for 2026’s challenges. Mortgage fraud concerns persist with recent reports showing an 8.2% year-over-year increase in risk according to Cotality. Refinance-related fraud now accounts for over 40% of title insurer losses, with average claims exceeding $207,000 per incident.

Companies like FundingShield and ACES remain essential partners as lenders combat increasingly sophisticated fraud schemes that traditional public record searches cannot detect.

Locking vs Floating

Peak holiday trading conditions mean bond markets can experience wider price ranges without apparent fundamental reasons, though rates typically drift sideways during the second half of December. The next significant volatility risk from scheduled events won’t occur until the first week of January.

MBS prices up 2 ticks provide some intraday cushion, but 10-year yield levels help track broader bond market momentum for longer-term positioning decisions.

Today’s Events

– Pending Home Sales: 79.2 vs 74.9 prev

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.87 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 101.45 | 0.02 |
| 6.0 | 102.67 | 0.01 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.9 | 0.03 |
| 5.5 | 101.05 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102 | 0.01 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.468 | 100.062 | -0.013 |
| 3 yr | 3.519 | 99.948 | -0.012 |
| 5 yr | 3.684 | 99.732 | -0.011 |
| 7 yr | 3.893 | 99.131 | -0.008 |
| 10 yr | 4.123 | 99.001 | -0.006 |
| 30 yr | 4.809 | 97.101 | -0.006 |