WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 10/02/2025
The mortgage-backed securities market showed mixed signals today as traders positioned ahead of key economic data releases later this week. UMBS 30-year securities experienced slight weakness throughout the morning session, with prices declining modestly on concerns about persistent inflation pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield held relatively steady near 4.25%, though intraday volatility suggested underlying uncertainty among market participants. Bond market sentiment remains cautious as investors await Friday’s employment report and ongoing Fed communications regarding future monetary policy. Mortgage originators are closely watching for any shifts in GNMA pricing, which has shown resilience despite broader market pressures. The spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields continues to reflect credit and liquidity concerns within the secondary market. Today’s lock-float considerations favor a cautious approach given the technical setup heading into tomorrow’s session.
Rate movements have been contained within recent ranges, but the potential for volatility remains elevated given upcoming economic releases. Mortgage professionals should monitor intraday price action closely, particularly around key support and resistance levels in both Treasury and MBS markets. The origination landscape continues to face headwinds from elevated rates, though some lenders report stabilization in application volumes. Refinance activity remains suppressed compared to historical norms, with purchase money loans comprising the majority of origination volume.
Industry professionals are adjusting business models to accommodate the shift toward a purchase-driven market environment. Real estate market dynamics show regional variations, with some areas experiencing price stabilization while others continue to see adjustments. The interplay between mortgage rates and housing affordability remains a critical factor influencing buyer behavior and market activity levels. Subscribe to receive this daily mortgage market analysis directly in your inbox for free and stay ahead of market movements that impact your business.
