WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/03/2025

Mortgage markets closed lower today despite manufacturing data showing continued weakness across most indicators. The 30-year UMBS dropped 11 basis points on the 5.0 coupon while Treasury yields climbed higher. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed at 48.7 versus 49.5 expected, keeping the sector in contraction territory for the second consecutive month.

Mortgage-backed securities struggled to find support even with softer economic data that typically benefits bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed up 19 basis points to 4.10%, its highest level since the Fed meeting last week. This divergence between weak data and higher rates reflects ongoing concerns about Fed policy flexibility amid the government shutdown.

Trade groups representing community banks and mortgage lenders are pushing the Trump administration to authorize emergency MBS purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The proposal calls for up to $300 billion in GSE purchases of their own MBS and Ginnie Mae securities when mortgage spreads exceed 170 basis points above the 10-year Treasury. Community Home Lenders of America and Independent Community Bankers of America sent the letter directly to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte.

Industry consolidation continued with Carrington Holding Company announcing its acquisition of Reliance First Capital from Tiptree Inc. The deal adds about $1 billion in annual origination volume to Carrington’s platform across FHA, VA, USDA, and Non-QM products. Reliance’s 315 employees and proprietary origination technology will transfer to Carrington once the transaction closes.

Robinhood and Sage Home Loans launched an exclusive partnership offering Gold subscribers mortgage rates at least 75 basis points below national averages plus $500 in closing cost credits. The fintech giant’s move into mortgage lending reflects broader efforts to expand its financial services ecosystem beyond trading. Sage CEO Mike Malloy said the collaboration demonstrates how technology can improve mortgage accessibility for retail investors.

Locking vs Floating

The Fed weakness narrative has run its course, returning markets to a more neutral risk/reward environment. Manufacturing data showed modest improvement after ISM releases, but MBS remained down an eighth with the 10-year up 2.9 basis points at 4.104%. Rate sheet weakness from Thursday’s Fed fallout appears to have stabilized.

Today’s Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct): 46.0 vs — forecast, 45.3 previous
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 48.7 vs 49.5 forecast, 49.1 previous
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Oct): 58.0 vs 61.7 forecast, 61.9 previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.45 | -0.11 |
| 5.5 | 101.01 | -0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.26 | -0.03 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.65 | -0.08 |
| 5.5 | 100.84 | 0.02 |
| 6.0 | 101.74 | -0.04 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.592 | 99.824 | 0.015 |
| 3 yr | 3.597 | 99.725 | 0.015 |
| 5 yr | 3.707 | 99.631 | 0.015 |
| 7 yr | 3.893 | 99.891 | 0.017 |
| 10 yr | 4.1 | 101.219 | 0.019 |
| 30 yr | 4.685 | 101.05 | 0.029 |