WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/10/2025

Mortgage bonds are under pressure today as optimism about resolving the government shutdown drives investors toward riskier assets. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 16 basis points as Treasury yields climbed across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 35 basis points to 4.13% after reports that Senate Democrats are breaking ranks to help Republicans move forward on a funding bill.

Government shutdown resolution could trigger the release of delayed economic data, including potentially the October jobs report this week if Congress acts quickly. This flood of data releases would provide clarity on economic conditions but could also introduce new volatility as markets digest information that’s been pent up for weeks. Loop Capital notes that September data originally scheduled for October release could come very rapidly once the shutdown ends.

Trump administration officials are moving forward with plans for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage option, according to FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s social media announcement over the weekend. Pulte confirmed the administration is “working on The 50-year Mortgage” as a potential solution to housing affordability challenges. This proposal would extend mortgage terms beyond the current 30-year standard established during the New Deal era.

The extended mortgage term would reduce monthly payments but significantly increase total interest costs over the life of the loan. For mortgage originators, this represents a potential new product offering, though industry experts question whether consumers would embrace paying off loans for half a century. Rob Chrisman notes that most Americans prefer to pay off mortgages sooner rather than later, questioning whether this follows successful models from other economies.

Industry consolidation continues as NFM Lending acquires Homespire Mortgage, expanding its national footprint. Stewart Information Services is purchasing MCS’s mortgage services division for $330 million, adding property preservation and inspection capabilities. Additionally, Opendoor and Roam have partnered to streamline assumable mortgage processes, helping buyers access low-rate FHA, VA, and USDA loans while addressing the “assumption gap” with second mortgage solutions.

Curinos reports that October mortgage volume increased 16% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year, with average 30-year conforming rates at 6.29%. This represents a 21-basis-point decline from September but remains 11 basis points higher than October 2024. Prepayment speeds surged in October, with Fannie Mae 30-year speeds jumping 32% to 10.5 CPR as falling rates reignited refinance incentives.

Locking vs Floating

Bond markets have found their footing after mid-week losses but need fresh inspiration for yields to fall meaningfully. MBS prices help with intraday risk management, while 10-year yield levels provide guidance on bigger-picture momentum. Given today’s government shutdown optimism and potential data releases this week, caution may be warranted for loans closing within the next few weeks.

Today’s Events

No economic data scheduled

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.4 | -0.14 |
| 5.5 | 100.92 | -0.11 |
| 6.0 | 102.2 | -0.03 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.72 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 100.81 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 101.72 | 0.03 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.573 | 99.86 | 0.013 |
| 3 yr | 3.582 | 99.77 | 0.01 |
| 5 yr | 3.693 | 99.691 | 0.013 |
| 7 yr | 3.882 | 99.961 | 0.011 |
| 10 yr | 4.101 | 101.213 | 0.008 |
| 30 yr | 4.703 | 100.76 | 0.005 |