WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/19/2025

Bonds started stronger overnight but surrendered their gains once stocks began recovering at the NYSE open. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.13% as investor demand for safe-haven assets waned. This afternoon’s Fed minutes release at 2:00 PM ET remains the key volatility catalyst for mortgage pricing.

Mortgage rates hit their highest level in four weeks as demand continues to soften. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 5.2% last week, with the 30-year contract rate rising to 6.37%. Refinance activity dropped 7% but remains 125% higher than the same period last year, showing the refi window is still open for many borrowers.

The relationship between stocks and bonds is in full display today. As equity markets found their footing, Treasury demand weakened, pushing yields higher across the curve. This classic correlation pattern means mortgage originators should watch stock futures closely for rate direction signals.

FOMC minutes could reveal the extent of division among Fed officials regarding December’s potential rate cut. Markets currently price less than 50% odds of another quarter-point reduction. Any hawkish commentary in the minutes could push mortgage rates even higher before the week ends.

Locking vs Floating

The week started flat for bonds, which represents a victory given the lack of friendly Fed commentary or weaker economic data. Volatility potential remains moderate but will increase surrounding today’s Fed minutes and Thursday’s delayed September jobs report. MBS prices unchanged with the 10-year up 1.1 basis points suggests floating carries moderate risk for now.

Today’s Events

– ADP Weekly Payrolls: -2.5k vs -11.25k previous
– Jobless Claims: 232k vs 223k forecast, 219k previous
– Factory Orders: 1.4 vs 1.4 forecast, -1.3 previous
– Builder Confidence: 38 vs 37 forecast, 37 previous
– Core Durable Goods: 0.4 vs 0.6 forecast/previous
– 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.24 | 0.02 |
| 5.5 | 100.85 | 0.01 |
| 6.0 | 102.16 | 0.03 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.42 | 0.19 |
| 5.5 | 100.64 | 0.1 |
| 6.0 | 101.69 | 0.11 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.577 | 99.853 | 0.001 |
| 3 yr | 3.574 | 99.792 | 0.003 |
| 5 yr | 3.694 | 99.688 | 0.014 |
| 7 yr | 3.884 | 99.184 | 0.008 |
| 10 yr | 4.124 | 98.996 | 0.007 |
| 30 yr | 4.746 | 98.07 | 0.013 |