WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/21/2025

New York Fed President Williams jolted markets this morning, signaling room for another rate cut in the “near term.” His comments sent mortgage-backed securities up more than an eighth of a point while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.06%. Williams noted that downside employment risks have increased while inflation pressures have eased, justifying a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Consumer sentiment plunged to one of its lowest levels on record in November, dropping to 51.0 from October’s 53.6.

The current conditions gauge hit a record low of 51.1, with Americans’ views of their personal finances dimming to levels not seen since 2009. Consumers remain frustrated about persistent high prices and weakening incomes, creating headwinds for future mortgage demand. September’s delayed jobs report delivered mixed signals that muddy December Fed expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls added 119,000 jobs versus 50,000 forecasted, but unemployment ticked up to 4.4% – the highest since 2021. Labor force participation improved slightly to 62.4%, though continuing unemployment claims hit four-year highs, suggesting job seekers face longer searches. Existing home sales climbed 1.2% in October to a 4.1 million annualized pace, reaching an eight-month high.

Regional performance varied significantly, with the Midwest surging 5.3% while the West declined 1.3%. First-time buyers represented 32% of sales, marginally higher than previous months, though affordability constraints continue limiting overall activity.

Locking vs Floating

Today’s September jobs data passed without major market disruption, keeping bonds within their established trading range.

However, Thanksgiving week volatility could emerge due to reduced trading liquidity and upcoming rescheduled economic releases. Williams’ dovish commentary boosted December rate cut odds to 65%, but risk-reward scenarios favor caution heading into the holiday period.

Today’s Events

– Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 119K vs 50K forecast, 22K previous
– Participation Rate (Sep): 62.4% vs 62.3% previous
– Philly Fed Business Index (Nov): -1.7 vs -3.1 forecast, -12.8 previous
– Unemployment Rate (Sep): 4.4% vs 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.49 | 0.16 |
| 5.5 | 101 | 0.11 |
| 6.0 | 102.2 | 0.04 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.55 | 0.07 |
| 5.5 | 100.77 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 101.72 | 0.02 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.504 | 99.992 | -0.031 |
| 3 yr | 3.497 | 100.009 | -0.03 |
| 5 yr | 3.617 | 100.038 | -0.031 |
| 7 yr | 3.812 | 99.624 | -0.03 |
| 10 yr | 4.063 | 99.484 | -0.021 |
| 30 yr | 4.711 | 98.634 | -0.014 |