WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (PM) – 11/25/2025

Markets treaded water this afternoon despite a barrage of economic data hitting screens. The 10-year Treasury yield flirted with the psychological 4.0% level, but couldn’t sustain a breakout. This dance around key resistance shows traders remain cautious heading into Thanksgiving week.

UMBS securities posted modest gains with the 5.0 coupon adding 9 basis points to close at 99.79. The movement came early in the session before data releases, suggesting position adjustments ahead of holiday liquidity concerns. MBS pricing held steady even as Treasury volatility picked up throughout the day.

ADP’s weekly employment report showed another 13,500 weekly job loss, continuing a concerning trend. However, bond markets largely ignored this labor weakness after last week’s dramatic reaction. Retail sales data also disappointed, coming in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected, with the control group actually declining 0.1%.

Producer prices met expectations at 0.3% monthly, providing little surprise to markets already positioned defensively. Consumer confidence dropped significantly to 88.7 from 94.6 previously, reflecting growing economic uncertainty among households. Despite multiple soft data points, Treasury yields refused to break meaningfully lower.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s federal grand jury scrutiny adds another layer of uncertainty to mortgage markets. The investigation comes as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac propose capital rule changes that could significantly increase costs for independent mortgage banks. These regulatory headwinds may pressure mortgage availability and pricing in coming months.

Locking vs Floating

Thanksgiving week trading creates elevated volatility risk over the next two days due to reduced liquidity and busy economic calendar. Risk-averse clients should lock rates that are near recent monthly lows. Moderately risk-tolerant clients recognize it will require significant economic data in mid-December to drive substantial rate improvements.

Today’s Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly: -13.5K vs -2.5K previous
Core Producer Prices MM (Sep): 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast
Producer Prices (Sep): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast
Retail Sales (Sep): 0.2% vs 0.4% forecast
Consumer Confidence: 88.7 vs 93.4 forecast
Pending Home Sales: 76.3 vs 74.8 previous

Bond Pricing

UMBS 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.79 | 0.09 |
| 5.5 | 101.23 | 0.05 |
| 6.0 | 102.37 | 0.05 |

GNMA 30 yr
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 99.92 | 0.07 |
| 5.5 | 100.97 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 101.79 | -0.06 |

Treasuries
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |
| 2 yr | 3.485 | 100.028 | -0.009 |
| 3 yr | 3.486 | 100.04 | 0 |
| 5 yr | 3.588 | 100.166 | -0.007 |
| 7 yr | 3.77 | 99.876 | -0.012 |
| 10 yr | 4.009 | 99.923 | -0.018 |
| 30 yr | 4.647 | 99.649 | -0.017 |