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What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/28/2025

Week In Review
October 28, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/28/2025 Mortgage-backed securities are staging a quiet revolt this morning, outperforming Treasuries despite $183 billion in new Treasury supply hitting markets this week. The UMBS 5.0 coupon gained 3 basis points while the 10-year Treasury sits flat at 3.98%, suggesting MBS investors aren't fazed by the government's heavy borrowing schedule. This divergence creates a rare window where lenders might see better pricing on mortgage products compared to the underlying Treasury benchmark. Home price data delivered mixed signals with the Case-Shiller index rising just 1.6% year-over-year, well below the 1.9% forecast and marking a continued slowdown in appreciation. The Federal Housing Finance Agency painted a different picture, showing monthly gains of 0.4% that beat expectations of 0.1%. For mortgage originators, slower price growth could eventually help borrower affordability, but the inconsistent data makes it harder to predict when that relief might arrive. Consumer confidence held steady at 94.6 in October, slightly beating forecasts and showing Americans remain cautiously optimistic about economic conditions. More importantly for the mortgage market, the labor differential - measuring the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful versus hard to get - jumped to 9.40 from 7.80. This employment strength supports the Fed's gradual approach to rate cuts and suggests mortgage demand could stabilize if rates continue their recent modest decline. Today's 7-year Treasury auction at 1:00 PM will test investor appetite after yesterday's mixed results saw strong demand for 5-year notes but weaker interest in 2-year paper. If the auction goes well, it could provide some post-supply relief that helps both Treasuries and mortgage rates. Wednesday's Fed announcement remains the week's biggest wildcard, with markets expecting a 25 basis point cut but watching for clues about the December meeting. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions favor a cautious approach to rate management. Rates remain relatively stable with MBS showing better resilience than Treasuries, but Wednesday's Fed announcement poses the biggest near-term volatility risk. For loans closing within the next two weeks, locking now provides protection against potential Fed-induced swings. Longer-term deals might benefit from waiting to see how markets digest this week's Treasury supply and Fed guidance before committing to rates. Today's Events - Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Aug): 1.6% vs 1.9% forecast - FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Aug): 0.4% vs 0.1% forecast - Consumer Confidence (Oct): 94.6 vs 93.2 forecast - 7-Year Treasury Note Auction: $44 billion at 1:00 PM Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | 0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.36 | 0.03 | | 6.0 | 102.41 | -0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.1 | 0.23 | | 5.5 | 101.07 | 0.06 | | 6.0 | 101.85 | -0.01 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.494 | 100.012 | -0.002 | | 3 yr | 3.5 | 100.001 | 0.004 | | 5 yr | 3.612 | 100.059 | 0.009 | | 7 yr | 3.778 | 100.594 | -0.003 | | 10 yr | 3.98 | 102.21 | -0.006 | | 30 yr | 4.545 | 103.346 | -0.001 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/27/2025

Week In Review
October 27, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/27/2025 Markets are consolidating ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as economic data remains sparse due to the ongoing government shutdown. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 3 basis points to 99.81 in early trading while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 20 basis points to 4.022%. This pre-Fed positioning suggests traders are cautious about potential policy changes despite the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. The mortgage-backed securities market is showing signs of weakness with broader selling pressure after the markets opened. Both UMBS and GNMA securities declined across most coupons as investors prepare for this week's Treasury auction cycle. The combination of pre-Fed uncertainty and $139 billion in new Treasury supply is creating headwinds for mortgage pricing. Major Industry News The Mortgage Bankers Association delivered a sobering forecast at its Las Vegas convention, warning that rates will remain above 6% through 2026. Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni cited the 10-year Treasury's 4%-4.5% range as evidence that mortgage rates are more likely to move higher than lower. This represents a significant shift from earlier optimism about returning to sub-6% rates. Fannie Mae announced key leadership changes with Jake Williamson becoming acting head of Single-Family and Tom Klein taking over as acting general counsel. Both executives bring roughly two decades of experience at the GSE during a critical period as speculation grows about potential privatization by late 2025. The changes follow CEO Priscilla Almodovar's departure and are part of a broader management restructuring. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions favor a cautious approach to rate exposure. Despite seemingly friendly September CPI data, rates have nudged higher over the past two days, building a case for current levels representing a floor. The Fed's press conference tone and this week's accelerated Treasury auction cycle could drive additional volatility, making locks attractive for loans closing within 30 days. Today's Events - 11:30 AM: 2-Year Note Auction ($69 billion) - 1:00 PM: 5-Year Note Auction ($70 billion) Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.8 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 101.23 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.36 | 0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.85 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 100.95 | 0 | | 6.0 | 101.79 | -0.01 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.515 | 99.972 | 0.022 | | 3 yr | 3.523 | 99.936 | 0.022 | | 5 yr | 3.639 | 99.937 | 0.021 | | 7 yr | 3.815 | 100.366 | 0.015 | | 10 yr | 4.024 | 101.848 | 0.004 | | 30 yr | 4.597 | 102.484 | -0.005 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/23/2025

Week In Review
October 23, 2025

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What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 10/23/2025

admin2025-10-23T08:49:00-07:00October 23rd, 2025|0 Comments

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admin2025-10-21T16:29:12-07:00October 21st, 2025|0 Comments

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admin2025-10-21T08:33:34-07:00October 21st, 2025|0 Comments

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/21/2025 Bonds are experiencing a strange combination of excitement and boredom this morning, with markets showing measured optimism. The Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Activity [...]

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