**WTMS Blog Today = What’s up in Mortgage Today (AM) – 08/05/2026**

The ADP employment report delivered a shock this morning, with private payrolls rising only 44,000 versus expectations of 70,000, signaling potential cooling in labor market momentum ahead of Friday’s government jobs report. While wage growth for job-switchers hit a nearly year-high of 7%, the overall hiring weakness could give the Federal Reserve reason to pivot toward rate cuts if the trend holds. Treasury yields pulled back slightly on softening labor data and hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal that would ease oil prices, creating a modest technical bounce in bonds after yields tested their recent ceiling.

UMBS and GNMA coupons moved marginally lower this morning, with the 5.5 coupon declining 4-6 basis points across both mortgage-backed security types. The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.61%, down slightly from yesterday’s close, as investors await clearer signals about Middle East developments and the employment landscape. Mortgage applications fell 2.9% last week as elevated rates continue to suppress demand, though purchase lending holds relatively steady compared to year-ago levels indicating structural demand remains intact.

JPMorgan Chase announced plans to hire 850 mortgage advisers, growing its lending team by roughly 57% from its current 1,500 advisers. The move signals Chase’s aggressive push to capture market share through its 5,000+ branch network and 11 million digital home-shopping users, giving the bank significant advantages in identifying borrowers before they reach mortgage lenders. For independent mortgage originators, this intensifying competition from traditional banks underscores the need to differentiate through superior service and specialized lending products.

Government regulations now account for $131,734 of the average new home’s $499,500 price, representing 26.4% of total construction costs. This regulatory burden spans federal, state, and local requirements and continues rising, placing further pressure on affordability and limiting the pool of qualified borrowers. The cost-of-compliance issue compounds existing affordability challenges driven by elevated mortgage rates and wages growth inequality.

Mortgage demand fell year-over-year for the first time since April as rates hit their highest levels in over a year. Refinance applications dropped 9% compared to July 2025, while purchase applications declined 3% over the same period, showing that both refi and purchase borrowers remain constrained. The recent pullback in rates this week offers temporary relief, but sustainability depends entirely on Middle East geopolitical developments unfolding over the next 48 hours.

Zillow cut over 500 employees in a structural reorganization aimed at reducing management layers and accelerating decision-making. CEO Jeremy Wacksman emphasized the need to operate with greater efficiency despite strong revenue and profitability, signaling that tech and real estate companies are tightening operations as market conditions stabilize. These industry-wide adjustments reflect a shift from growth-at-all-costs to sustainable, efficient business models.

**Locking vs Floating**

Bond yields are testing a technical ceiling while fundamental factors provide support—a rare combination that should encourage confidence if it sticks, but remain cautious because the situation can reverse instantly if Iran negotiations fail or if Friday’s jobs report surprises to the upside. The technical bounce coinciding with fundamental strength in bonds is one of the more reassuring signals in recent weeks, though geopolitical risk remains the dominant wildcard.

**Today’s Events**

ADP Employment (July): 44k vs 70k forecast, 95k prior

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July): Forecast 54.5, Prior 54.0

ISM Services Employment (July): Forecast 51.2

Weekly crude oil inventories

Fed Governor Cook remarks

**Bond Pricing**

**UMBS 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 97.21 | -0.08 |
| 5.5 | 99.54 | -0.06 |
| 6.0 | 101.54 | -0.05 |

**GNMA 30 yr**
| Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change |
| 5.0 | 97.5 | -0.06 |
| 5.5 | 99.81 | -0.06 |
| 6.0 | 101.83 | -0.01 |

**Treasuries**
| Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |